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Evaluation Model of Yellow Peach Climatic Quality Rating in Hilly Mountainous Areas
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摘要: 利用2019—2023年罗霄山脉中段和雪峰山西侧221~1300 m海拔高度间的黄桃品质观测数据, 采用加权求和、相关系数、回归分析、多重共线性分析等方法, 构建黄桃气候品质评价指标及主要品质要素气象因子回归模型, 并进行独立样本检验, 基于模型分析不同海拔高度和采收日期条件下黄桃气候品质等级的时空变化特征。结果表明:黄桃品质要素可溶性固形物含量、可滴定酸含量、果形指数对应主要气象影响因子分别为采收前80 d平均气温、采收前40 d总降水量、5月上旬至6月上旬平均气温及总降水量与采收前10 d平均气温及总降水量, 对应气象因子模型的验证样本平均绝对偏差分别为0.397%、0.093%、0.010, 均方根误差分别为0.072%、0.014%、0.001, 相关系数分别为0.649(p=0.05)、0.718(p=0.01)、0.957(p=0.01), 品质评价等级验证完全一致的模型准确率为75%。由模型得到黄桃品质等级为特优及优的总频率随海拔升高、采收日期推移均呈先升后降的趋势, 其中600~820 m海拔地区与7月底至8月上旬采收的特优品质频率最高。Abstract: The study of evaluation indexes for yellow peach climate quality and its meteorological factor model can provide technical support to ensure high-quality production and facilitate rural revitalization. Taking "Jinxiu" variety of yellow peach as the research object, based on the yellow peach quality observations from 221-1300 m altitude and temperature and rainfall data from 13 meteorological stations near orchards at the middle section of Luoxiao Mountains and the west side of Xuefeng Mountain during 2019-2023, a climatic quality evaluation index for yellow peach and meteorological factorial regression model for its quality elements are constructed by using the methods of weighted summation, Pearson's correlation, regression analysis and multiple covariance analysis, and examined with independent samples. Effects of different altitudes and harvest dates on the climatic quality ratings of yellow peaches are further investigated based on the constructed model. Results show that the main meteorological influencing factors for yellow peach soluble solids content (SS) is the average air temperature 80 d before harvest, for titratable acid content (AT) is the total rainfall 40 d before harvest, and for fruit shape index (IS) are the average air temperature from 1 May to 10 June, total rainfall from 1 May to 10 June, the average air temperature 10 d before harvest and total rainfall 10 d before harvest. Mean absolute error between the simulated and measured values of SS, AT, and IS of validation samples is 0.397%, 0.093%, and 0.010, respectively, and the root mean square error is 0.072%, 0.014%, and 0.001, respectively, and r is 0.649 (p=0.05), 0.718 (p=0.01), and 0.957 (p=0.01), respectively. The simulated quality ratings for 75% of validation samples match the actual climatic quality ratings, while 25% differs by 1 level. Simulation based on the constructed model reveals that the total frequency of superior and excellent quality in the study area shows an increasing and then decreasing trend with both the elevation and the harvesting period, among which the best quality is found in the mid-high elevation areas of 600-820 m or the harvest from 31 July to 10 August. Fruits harvested in high elevation areas above 1300 m or harvested from 21 August to 31 August appear to have a high frequency of lower quality.
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图 1 黄桃SS与采收前80 d平均气温的关系
(实心圆为训练样本，空心圆为验证样本，下同)
Fig. 1 Relationship between soluble solids of yellow peach and average air temperature 80 d before harvesting
(the solid circle denotes training sample, the hollow circle denotes testing sample, similarly hereinafter)
图 2 黄桃各品质要素实测值与模拟值关系
Fig. 2 Relationship of each yellow peach quality element between observation and simulation
图 3 黄桃气候品质等级随海拔高度的变化
Fig. 3 Yellow peach climatic quality ratings varying with altitude
图 4 黄桃气候品质等级随采收日期的变化
Fig. 4 Yellow peach climatic quality ratings varying with harvest date
表 1 2019—2020年、2022年罗霄山脉中段黄桃品质观测地点基本信息
Table 1 Basic information on yellow peach quality observation sites at the middle section of Luoxiao Mountains in 2019-2020 and 2022
样本点编号 所处乡镇 海拔高度/m 地理位置 样本点编号 所处乡镇 海拔高度/m 地理位置 L01 炎陵县霞阳镇 221 26.5°N、113.8°E L14 炎陵县瓜寮村 900 26.6°N、114.0°E L02 炎陵县霞阳镇 237 26.5°N、113.8°E L15 炎陵县中村乡 900 26.1°N、113.7°E L03 炎陵县霞阳镇 241 26.5°N、113.8°E L16 炎陵县垄溪乡 960 26.4°N、113.9°E L04 炎陵县沔渡镇 310 26.6°N、113.9°E L17 炎陵县中村乡 980 26.1°N、113.7°E L05 炎陵县霞阳镇 390 26.6°N、113.8°E L18 炎陵县中村乡 1000 26.2°N、113.8°E L06 炎陵县霞阳镇 433 26.5°N、113.8°E L19 炎陵县下村乡 1053 26.2°N、113.9°E L07 炎陵县沔渡镇 500 26.5°N、113.9°E L20 炎陵县仙坪村 1100 26.4°N、113.9°E L08 炎陵县中村乡 510 26.2°N、113.8°E L21 炎陵县中村乡 1100 26.1°N、113.7°E L09 炎陵县中村乡 638 26.2°N、113.8°E L22 炎陵县鑫山村 1100 26.2°N、113.9°E L10 炎陵县垄溪乡 640 26.4°N、113.8°E L23 炎陵县垄溪乡 1150 26.4°N、113.9°E L11 炎陵县垄溪乡 678 26.4°N、113.9°E L24 炎陵县鹫峰村 1200 26.2°N、113.9°E L12 炎陵县垄溪乡 780 26.4°N、113.9°E L25 炎陵县鑫山村 1300 26.1°N、113.9°E L13 炎陵县沔渡镇 860 26.5°N、113.9°E L26 炎陵县酃峰村 1300 26.3°N、114.0°E 
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表 2 2019—2023年雪峰山西侧黄桃品质观测地点基本信息
Table 2 Basic information of yellow peach quality observation sites in western side of Xuefeng Mountain in 2019-2023
样本点编号 所处乡镇 海拔高度/m 地理位置 样本点编号 所处乡镇 海拔高度/m 地理位置 X01 洪江市安江镇 230 27.3°N、110.1°E X08 中方县中方镇 450 27.4°N、110.0°E X02 中方县柌木镇 250 27.3°N、109.9°E X09 中方县柌木镇 450 27.4°N、109.8°E X03 洪江市黔城镇 250 27.2°N、109.8°E X10 中方县铁坡镇 500 27.5°N、110.4°E X04 中方县新建镇 320 27.5°N、110.2°E X11 中方县花桥镇 580 27.7°N、110.2°E X05 中方县花桥镇 320 27.7°N、110.2°E X12 洪江市安江镇 650 27.4°N、110.1°E X06 中方县花桥镇 400 27.6°N、110.3°E X13 中方县泸阳镇 740 27.6°N、110.2°E X07 洪江市安江镇 400 27.3°N、110.1°E X14 鹤城区黄岩乡 820 27.4°N、110.1°E
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表 3 2019—2023罗霄山脉中段和雪峰山西侧黄桃主要品质要素
Table 3 Main quality indices of yellow peach at the middle section of Luoxiao Mountains and west side of Xuefeng Mountain in 2019-2023
统计量 SS/% AT/% IS W/g 最大值 16.60 1.05 1.18 335.0 最小值 10.40 0.29 0.91 150.0 平均值 13.79 0.62 1.03 235.6
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表 4 黄桃各气候品质要素分级
Table 4 Ranking of each climatic quality element of yellow peach
指标 特优(等级值为4) 优(等级值为3) 良(等级值为2) 一般(等级值为1) SS/% SS≥14% 13%≤SS＜14% 12%≤SS＜13% SS＜12% AT/% AT＜0.50% 0.50%≤AT＜0.85% AT≥0.85% IS IS＜1.05 1.05≤IS＜1.10 IS≥1.10
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表 5 黄桃各品质要素气象因子回归模型
Table 5 Meteorological factor regression model for each yellow peach quality element
因变量 回归模型 决定系数 SS SS=-0.3151Ta802+14.9760Ta80-163.2390 0.621* AT AT=0.0009R40+0.3428 0.569* IS IS=-0.0002R5161+0.0087Ta5161-0.0004R10+0.0103Ta10+0.6663 0.665* 注：*表示决定系数达到0.01显著性水平。
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表 6 黄桃IS模型气象因子共线性分析
Table 6 Covariance analysis of meteorological factors for yellow peach fruit shape index model
指标 R5161 Ta5161 R10 Ta10 容忍值 0.66 0.69 0.56 0.78 方差膨胀因子 1.53 1.46 1.80 1.28
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表 7 黄桃各品质要素验证样本与模拟结果的特征
Table 7 Each quality characteristics of yellow peach between testing sample and simulation
品质要素 实测平均值 模拟平均值 平均绝对偏差 均方根误差 相关系数 SS/% 13.904 13.943 0.397 0.072 0.649* AT/% 0.687 0.621 0.093 0.014 0.718** IS 1.010 1.016 0.010 0.001 0.957** 注：*和* *分别表示相关系数达到0.05和0.01显著性水平。
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表 8 黄桃气候品质等级评价模型验证
Table 8 Validation of the evaluation model for yellow peach climatic quality rating
采收日期 观测地段 样本点编号 SS/% AT/% IS 实际品质等级 模拟IQ 模拟品质等级 符合程度 2020-07-29 罗霄山脉中段 L07 13.61 0.77 1.13 优 2.40 优 符合 2020-08-03 罗霄山脉中段 L11 14.13 0.75 1.03 特优 3.05 特优 符合 2020-08-12 罗霄山脉中段 L18 13.90 0.65 1.00 优 3.05 特优 相差1级 2020-08-03 雪峰山西侧 X02 13.19 0.96 0.96 优 2.25 优 符合 2020-08-06 雪峰山西侧 X07 14.12 0.79 1.01 特优 2.55 优 相差1级 2020-08-09 雪峰山西侧 X08 13.46 0.70 1.00 优 2.55 优 符合 2020-08-13 雪峰山西侧 X11 13.87 0.62 1.09 优 2.40 优 符合 2020-08-08 雪峰山西侧 X12 14.88 0.81 1.01 特优 3.05 特优 符合
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