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基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变

李剑锋 张强 陈晓宏 白云岗

李剑锋, 张强, 陈晓宏, 等. 基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变. 应用气象学报, 2012, 23(3): 322-330..
引用本文: 李剑锋, 张强, 陈晓宏, 等. 基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变. 应用气象学报, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.
Li Jianfeng, Zhang Qiang, Chen Xiaohong, et al. SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang, China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.
Citation: Li Jianfeng, Zhang Qiang, Chen Xiaohong, et al. SPI-based drought variations in Xinjiang, China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(3): 322-330.

基于标准降水指标的新疆干旱特征演变

资助项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 41071020

水利部水专项 201001066

新疆自治区科技攻关项目 200931105

详细信息
    通信作者:

    李剑锋, E-mail: jianfengli.sysu@gmail.com

SPI-based Drought Variations in Xinjiang, China

  • 摘要: 运用标准降水指标 (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) 对新疆地区53个雨量站1957—2009年日降水量资料进行全面分析,研究了不同干旱等级发生概率的空间分布变化规律。同时,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析了各月份标准降水指标值、干旱强度和干旱历时的变化趋势,探讨了新疆地区干旱时空演变特征。结果表明:北疆易发生中等及以上干旱,而南疆易发生轻度干旱。总的来说,北疆干旱强度有下降的趋势,干旱历时趋于缩短,南疆南部干旱强度和干旱历时有轻微上升,东疆中部干旱情况显著恶化。具体来说,北疆冬季干旱程度有减弱趋势,而对于农业生产较重要的春、夏、秋季,西部干旱加剧;南疆夏季干旱有减弱趋势;东疆中部四季干旱程度有轻微加剧趋势。
  • 图  1  新疆地区雨量站分布

    Fig. 1  Location of precipition stations in Xinjiang

    图  2  1980—2009年乌鲁木齐区域标准降水指标值与历史干旱受灾面积变化

    Fig. 2  The comparison of SPI and historic drought damage area in Urumqi region during 1980—2009

    图  3  干旱发生概率空间分布

    (a) 轻度干旱, (b) 中度干旱, (c) 重度干旱, (d) 极端干旱

    Fig. 3  Spatial distribution of frequencies for drought categories

    (a) mild drought, (b) moderate drought, (c) severe drought, (d) extreme drought

    图  4  逐月标准降水指标的M-K法统计量Z分布

    Fig. 4  Monthly spatial distribution of SPI trends

    图  5  新疆干旱强度

    (a) 及干旱历时 (b) M-K法统计量Z分布

    Fig. 5  Spatial distirbutions of trends of drought serverity (a) and drought duration (b)

    表  1  标准降水指标干旱等级

    Table  1  SPI categories

    标准降水指标 干旱等级 发生概率
    (-1.0, 0] 轻度干旱 0.341
    (-1.5, -1.0] 中度干旱 0.092
    (-2.0, -1.5] 重度干旱 0.044
    (-∞, -2.0] 极端干旱 0.023
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2011-07-26
  • 修回日期:  2012-03-06
  • 刊出日期:  2012-06-30

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