Research and Implementation of Ensemble Forecast Product Analysis and Display Platform

In response to the impendent requirement of ensemble forecast applications in modern weather forecast operations, an ensemble forecast product analysis and display platform named NUMBERS (NUmerical Model Blending and Ensemble foRecast System) is developed. The application background, requirement analysis, design of system architecture and function implementation are discussed in details. In addition, some key technologies such as dynamic page layout rendering and data pooling, are also described.First of all, the ensemble forecast platform is designed using the client-server architecture. On the server side, there is a data processing program that converts large amounts of ensemble numerical model output into product data to ensure the performance of client data visualization program. On the client side, there is a data visualization program and a management console program. The data visualization program provides features including ensemble product data analysis, blending of multiple deterministic models, customized geographic information service, layer-based graphics rendering, interactive configuration of graphics layers, and exporting of weather maps. The management console program provides a unified user interface to help users manage all settings of the platform.As there is a large difference in computing resource throughout the meteorology department, the ensemble forecast platform is designed to be cross-platform by employing a modular and stratified design approach with C++ is programming language.In order to enhance graphics rendering quality of weather maps, an innovative page layout rendering technique is proposed, allowing a flexible configuration of graphics elements like layers, titles and legends and creation of professionally-looking weather maps.As an effective abstraction of ensemble data may significantly improve working efficiency of forecasters, advanced ensemble prediction algorithms and graphics rendering technologies are incorporated into the platform, which support nearly all popular products including statistics quantities, probability forecast, stamps, spaghetti, plume and box-whiskers.Since September 2013, the platform has been put into operation in central meteorological observatory and nearly all observatories of province capitals. Ever since, the platform is further improved by adding new features and fixing bugs based on user feedbacks. In the future, the platform will be improved by incorporating the latest algorithms in ensemble prediction, enhancing support for professional forecast such as typhoon track prediction and short-term strong weather prediction, introducing ensemble prediction validation and improving interactive performance. Furthermore, all the features of the platform will be incorporated into the fourth edition MICAPS, which will play an important role in flourishing China ensemble forecast applications and improving operational capability.