The Experiment of Hybrid Ensemble Forecast Approach in Short-range Forecast for South China Rainstorm

Tang Shengjun; Wang Donghai; Du Jun; Zhou Jingshi

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20150603

Vol.26, No.6,

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Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2015 > 26(6): 669-679. > DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150603

Tang Shengjun, Wang Donghai, Du Jun, et al. The experiment of hybrid ensemble forecast approach in short-range forecast for South China rainstorm. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2015, 26(6): 669-679. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20150603.

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The Experiment of Hybrid Ensemble Forecast Approach in Short-range Forecast for South China Rainstorm

1.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225
2.
Yalong River Hydropower Development Company, Ltd, Chengdu 610051
3.
State Key Lab of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
4.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA, Maryland 20740

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Abstract

Abstract

Hybrid ensemble forecast approach composed of high-resolution and low-resolution model is tested with multi-initial conditions and multi-physics ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on ARPS and WRF. Three kinds of ensemble prediction experiments (ARPS model ensemble, WRF model ensemble and ARPS-WRF multi-model ensemble) are designed to comparatively analyze the precipitation effect between the hybrid ensemble forecast approach and traditional ensemble forecast approach based on the heavy rainfall event occurred in Southern China on 8 May 2013. ARPS model ensemble improves local precipitation simulation over southern part of Guangdong Province. The center intensity of southern ensemble mean reaches 150 mm, close to the observation, but its location shifts northeast a little. The distribution of ensemble spread is similar to that of ensemble mean. The probabilistic forecast area of the approach is close to the observation in terms of the torrential rain and downpour forecast. The Threat Score (TS) show that the greatest improvements for order of magnitude precipitation are obtained by the hybrid ensemble approach. The Brier Score (BS) also shows that the improvement on moderate rain, heavy rain and torrential rain is obvious, but the improvement on downpour and excessive storm is limited for the approach. WRF model ensemble has a better performance on precipitation simulation over northern part of Guangdong Province, but the hybrid approach is limited because of the large frequency of false alarms and misses. ARPS-WRF multi-models obviously improve precipitation simulation which has a better performance than those of traditional ensemble forecast approach on precipitation area and intensity. The center intensity of southern precipitation reaches 70 mm, less than the observation and it is caused by the weaker WRF members forecast. The distribution of ensemble spread is similar to that of ensemble mean. The probabilistic forecast of torrential rain and downpour in southern area is best up to 40%. The TS shows that the greatest improvements for order of magnitude precipitation are obtained by the hybrid ensemble approach, especially for heavy rain, torrential rain and downpour. The BS also shows that the improvement on moderate rain, heavy rain and torrential rain is obvious. ARPS-WRF multi-models have better performance than ARPS model on the forecast of downpour and excessive storm. Therefore, the hybrid ensemble forecast approach achieves high-resolution ensemble forecast system and improves the precipitation simulation combining low-resolution ensemble run with single high-resolution control model run. Meanwhile, a reference to high-resolution ensemble forecast system is provided for operational weather prediction centers.
- hybrid ensemble forecast approach,
- high resolution,
- South China rainstorm

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Fig 1. Observed precipitation from 0800 BT to 2000 BT on 8 May 2013

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Fig 2. 12 h accumulative precipitation ensemble mean and spread of 3 schemes in ARPS

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Fig 3. 12 h precipitation probabilistic forecast of 3 schemes in ARPS

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Fig 4. Threat Score and Brier Score of 12 h accumulative precipitation for 3 schemes in ARPS

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Fig 5. 12 h accumulative precipition ensemble mean and spread of 3 schemes in WRF

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Fig 6. Threat Score and Brier Score of 12 h accumulative precipitation for 3 schemes in WRF

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Fig 7. 12 h accumulative precipitation ensemble mean and spread of 3 schemes in ARPS-WRF

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Fig 8. 12 h precipitation probabilistic forecast of 3 schemes in ARPS-WRF

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Fig 9. Threat Score and Brier Score of 12 h accumulative precipitation for 3 schemes in ARPS-WRF

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Table 1 The formation of ensemble members of the system

成员	微物理方案	积云对流方案	边界层方案
ARPS_ctl	LIN	KF	PBL specified
ARPS_n1	WARMRA	Kuo+Kessler	PBL diagnosed
ARPS_p1	WARMRA	KF	PBL diagnosed
ARPS_n2	NEMICE	KF	PBL specified
ARPS_p2	LIN	New KF	PBL diagnosed
ARPS_n3	NEMICE	Kuo+Kessler	PBL diagnosed
ARPS_p3	WARMRA	New KF	PBL specified
WRF_ctl	LIN	BMJ	MYJ
WRF_n1	LIN	New KF	MYJ
WRF_p1	Thompson	BMJ	YSU
WRF_n2	WSM6	BMJ	YSU
WRF_p2	WSM5	New KF	MYJ
WRF_n3	Ferrier	New KF	YSU
WRF_p3	WSM5	BMJ	MYJ
注：n代表负扰动成员，p代表正扰动成员，ctl代表控制预报。

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Received : 2015-03-24
Accepted : 2015-06-09
Published : 2015-11-29

The Experiment of Hybrid Ensemble Forecast Approach in Short-range Forecast for South China Rainstorm

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