Beijing Regional Environmental Meteorology Prediction System and Its Performance Test of PM<sub>2.5</sub> Concentration

Zhao Xiujuan; Xu Jing; Zhang Ziyin; Zhang Xiaoling; Fan Shuiyong; Su Jie

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20160204

Vol.27, NO.2, 2016

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2016 > 27(2): 160-172

Zhao Xiujuan, Xu Jing, Zhang Ziyin, et al. Beijing regional environmental meteorology prediction system and its performance test of PM2.5 concentration. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(2): 160-172. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160204.

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Zhao Xiujuan, Xu Jing, Zhang Ziyin, et al. Beijing regional environmental meteorology prediction system and its performance test of PM_2.5 concentration. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(2): 160-172. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160204.

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Beijing Regional Environmental Meteorology Prediction System and Its Performance Test of PM_2.5 Concentration

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160204

1.
Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089
2.
Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Beijing 100089

Received Date: 2015-06-17
Rev Recd Date: 2016-01-22
Publish Date: 2016-03-31

Abstract

Abstract

Beijing Regional Environmental Meteorology Prediction System (BREMPS) is established by coupling BJ-RUC, WRF-Chem and preferred visibility parameterization scheme. The performance test with observations in 2014 and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) period shows that BREMPS has a good forecasting ability for two important elements in air quality and haze forecasting in Beijing and surrounding area, PM_2.5 concentration and visibility. Correlation coefficients of PM_2.5 between forecasted and observed values reaches above 0.6 at most sites, and even reaches above 0.8 at some sites in Beijing. Forecasted values generally underestimate the PM_2.5 concentrations with a regional average normalized mean bias of-15%. The forecast performance shows slight decrease after 24 forecasted hours. Comparing with the regional average, the forecast performance is best in Beijing urban area and northern of Hebei. The forecasted PM_2.5 concentration agrees well with the observation in Beijing area. Correlation coefficients of PM_2.5 concentrations between forecasted and observed values in 48 forecasted hours are about 0.77 in urban area. The normalized mean bias is generally in a range of-26%. The correlation coefficient in rural area is higher than that in urban area. However, the mean bias is also higher in rural area. That is probably attributed to the inaccuracy of the emission information in these areas. The forecast performance is better in spring, autumn and winter, during which the correlation coefficient between forecasted and observed values mostly ranges from 0.7 to 0.9, and the normalized mean bias is within 20%. The forecasted visibility is closer to automatic measurements than artificial observations. Forecasted values are in good agreement with observations during sustained low visibility synoptic processes. For the hourly visibility lower than 10 km, the accuracy of forecast is 77%, which decreases with the reduction of visibility and reaches 40% when the visibility is lower than 2 km. BREMPS shows good forecast performance during the APEC period, when the temporal evolutions of AQI and visibility, and spatial distribution of PM_2.5 concentrations are well forecasted, providing strong support for the environmental meteorology forecast service.
- environmental meteorology;
- PM_2.5 concentration;
- visibility;
- performance test

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References(32)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Forecast region and the location of monitoring stations

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Fig. 2 Main frame of Beijing regional environmental meteorology prediction system

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图 3 24 h预报的PM_2.5日平均浓度与观测的检验统计值空间分布

(a) 相关系数，(b) 归一化平均偏差

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of correlation coefficient (a) and normalized mean bias (b) between 24 h forecasted and observed daily mean PM_2.5 concentration

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Fig. 4 Comparison between observation and 24 h forecast of daily mean PM_2.5 concentration in Beijing urban (a) and rural (b) areas

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Fig. 5 Monthly test statistic for observation and forecast of PM_2.5 in Beijing urban area

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图 6 2014年观测与24 h预报的日平均能见度

(a) 北京市观象台，(b) 海淀站

Fig. 6 Observation and 24 h forecast of daily mean visibility

(a) Beijing Weather Observatory, (b) Haidian Station

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图 7 2014年观测与24 h预报的日平均能见度散点拟合

(a) 北京市观象台, (b) 海淀站

Fig. 7 Linear fitting between observation and 24 h forecast of daily mean visibility

(a) Beijing Weather Observatory, (b) Haidian Station

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图 8 2014年10月26日—11月13日北京地区观测AQI与海淀站和官园站预报AQI对比

(a) 逐日AQI对比，(b) 观测与海淀站预报AQI拟合，(c) 观测与官园站预报AQI拟合

Fig. 8 Comparison between observed AQI in Beijing area and forecasted AQI at Haidian and Guanyuan stations from 26 Oct to 13 Nov in 2014

(a) daily AQI, (b) linear regression between the observed and the forecasted AQI at Haidian Station, (c) linear regression between the observed and the forecasted AQI at Guanyuan Station

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图 9 2014年11月7日08：00—11日02：00观测与预报PM_2.5小时浓度空间分布

(填色为24 h预报结果，实心圆点代表观测结果)

Fig. 9 Spatial distributions of observed and forecasted hourly concentrations of PM_2.5from 7 Nov to 11 Nov in 2014

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Fig. 10 Comparison of hourly visibility between observation and 24 h forecast at Beijing Weather Observatory from 1 Nov to 13 Nov in 2014

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Table 1 Test statistics for forecasted and observed annual mean daily average PM_2.5 concentration

区域	浓度/(μg·m^-3)				相关系数			归一化平均偏差/%			平均误差/(μg·m^-3)
区域	观测	24 h	48 h	72 h	24 h	48 h	72 h	24 h	48 h	72 h	24 h	48 h	72 h
北京城区	88.0	78.9	69.7	65.2	0.77	0.77	0.69	-10.3	-20.8	-25.9	-9.0	-18.2	-22.7
北京郊区	76.7	49.2	45.8	43.1	0.83	0.79	0.75	-35.8	-40.1	-43.7	-27.4	-30.6	-33.4
天津	85.4	59.0	49.8	45.7	0.69	0.64	0.56	-30.9	-41.7	-46.5	-26.4	-35.6	-39.7
石家庄	132.5	91.6	81.5	77.0	0.68	0.62	0.53	-30.9	-38.5	-41.8	-40.9	-51.0	-55.4
河北中南部	117.5	82.5	71.3	67.8	0.73	0.66	0.57	-29.8	-39.3	-42.3	-35.0	-46.2	-49.7
河北北部	55.6	44.5	39.5	37.5	0.77	0.76	0.73	-20.0	-28.9	-32.4	-11.1	-16.1	-18.0
整个区域	74.3	51.8	45.2	43.0	0.73	0.69	0.65	-30.2	-39.2	-42.1	-22.5	-29.1	-31.3

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Table 2 Classification statistics of forecasted visibility at Beijing Weather Observatory

分级/km	小时样本量		准确率/%	日样本量		准确率/%
分级/km	观测	预报	准确率/%	观测	预报	准确率/%
[10，30)	1333	1073	80.5	200	179	89.5
[0，10)	1424	1098	77.1	165	111	67.3
[0，5)	903	562	62.2	89	50	56.2
[0，2)	307	125	40.7	24	2	8.3
[2，5)	597	229	38.4	66	29	43.9
[5，10)	522	174	33.3	77	29	37.7

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