Empirical Orthogonal Function-analogue Correction of Extra-seasonal Dynamical Prediction of East-Asian Summer Monsoon

Cheng Yabei; Ren Hongli; Tan Guirong

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20160303

Vol.27, NO.3, 2016

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Cheng Yabei, Ren Hongli, Tan Guirong. Empirical orthogonal function-analogue correction of extra-seasonal dynamical prediction of East-Asian summer monsoon. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(3): 285-292. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160303.

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Cheng Yabei, Ren Hongli, Tan Guirong. Empirical orthogonal function-analogue correction of extra-seasonal dynamical prediction of East-Asian summer monsoon. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(3): 285-292. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160303.

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Empirical Orthogonal Function-analogue Correction of Extra-seasonal Dynamical Prediction of East-Asian Summer Monsoon

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160303

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2015-12-05
Rev Recd Date: 2016-01-03
Publish Date: 2016-05-31

Abstract

Abstract

In terms of the dataset of the second generation climate prediction model of Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1(m) hindcasts in February from 1991 to 2010, the model is assessed on its performances in predicting five monsoon indices including the East Asian summer monsoon index (EASMI), the western North Pacific summer monsoon index (WNPSMI), the East Asian monsoon index (EAMI), the Indian summer monsoon index (ISMI) and the East Asian summer monsoon intensity index (EASMII). A correction method based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and the analogue analysis, called the empirical orthogonal function-analogue correction of errors (EOF-ACE) is used to correct the modes which are poorly predicted by the model.Through EOF analysis, the coordinated variation of the five monsoon indices can be reflect by the obtained modes. In addition, according to the principle of ensemble forecast, three similarity indices are used to select the similarity years. The correction process is divided into two parts, which are linear component correction and non-linear component correction.Assessments indicate that the EASMI and the WNPSMI are predicted well by BCC_CSM1.1(m). However, the prediction result of EAMI, ISMI and EASMII is poor. Through EOF-ACE correction, the model prediction skill of the monsoon indices originally unreasonable are improved, but it's unsatisfactory for the rest indices. The linear component correction mostly shows higher skill than non-linear component correction in cross-validation. However, for independent validation, the effect of non-linear component correction is mostly better than linear component correction, which displays application prospects.However, the EOF-ACE has barely effects on indices whose deviations are originally small, and correlation coefficients of some summer monsoon indices between observations and predictions are still not significant through correction. It is necessary to make further analysis on the inter-annual variation of those indices, and look for the relevant external force factors.
- summer monsoon indices;
- dynamical prediction;
- analogue analysis;
- statistical correction

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Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Illustration of the scheme for the empirical orthogonal function-analogue correction of errors

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Fig. 2 Anomaly correlation coefficients between five monsoon indices of observations and model predictions, linear component correlation and non-linear component correlation for the cross-validation

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Fig. 3 The same as in Fig. 2, but for the independent validation

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Fig. 4 Observations, model predictions and linear component correction of the east Asian monsoon index from 1991 to 2010

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Fig. 5 Observations, model predictions and non-linear component correction of the Indian summer monsoon index from 1991 to 2010

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Fig. 6 The same as in Fig. 5, but for the east Asian summer monsoon intensity index

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Table 1 Anomaly correlation coefficients between five summer monsoon indices of observations and model predictions

夏季风指数	1991—2010年	1991—2001年	2002—2010年
EASMI	0.63	0.73	0.43
WNPSMI	0.61	0.69	0.46
EAMI	0.33	0.56	-0.03
ISMI	-0.22	0.18	-0.55
EASMII	0.12	-0.13	0.29

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Table 2 Anomaly correlation coefficients between temporal coefficients of observations and model predictions

模态	1991—2010年	1991—2001年	2002—2010年
第1模态	0.56	0.67	0.31
第2模态	0.26	0.15	0.41
第3模态	0.55	0.68	0.25
第4模态	0.03	0.34	-0.08
第5模态	-0.06	-0.22	0.01

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