Risk Assessment of Maize Chilling Injury in Northeast China

Tang Yuxue; Guo Jianping

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20160310

Vol.27, NO.3, 2016

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Tang Yuxue, Guo Jianping. Risk assessment of maize chilling injury in Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(3): 352-360. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160310.

Citation:

Tang Yuxue, Guo Jianping. Risk assessment of maize chilling injury in Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(3): 352-360. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160310.

Tang Yuxue, Guo Jianping. Risk assessment of maize chilling injury in Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(3): 352-360. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160310.

Citation:

Tang Yuxue, Guo Jianping. Risk assessment of maize chilling injury in Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(3): 352-360. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160310.

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Risk Assessment of Maize Chilling Injury in Northeast China

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160310

Tang Yuxue^1,2,
Guo Jianping^{2,3
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1.
Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Science, Chongqing 401147
2.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
3.
Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecast, Early-warning and Assessment, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044

Received Date: 2015-07-23
Rev Recd Date: 2015-11-16
Publish Date: 2016-05-31

Abstract

Abstract

The northeast region is an important maize production area in China. Chilling injury is a main meteorological disaster for maize, and yields of maize decrease over 15% in several serious chilling injury years. A new index of maize chilling injury is established, and the risk of the chilling injury is assessed. Based on previous research, the damage inflicted temperatures in each growing period of maize (including seedling stage, jointing stage, flowering stage and filling stage) are determined. A new chilling injury index of cold accumulated temperature (T_CA for short) is defined, which can quantitatively describe strength of chilling injury, and its value is the difference between damage inflicted temperature and environment temperature. Calculation formulas of daily T_CA, periodical T_CA and annual T_CA are given.According to decadal mean T_CA, four regions of maize chilling injury in Northeast China are divided. Based on the analysis of relationship between annual T_CA anomaly and annual yield reduction rates of the above regions, index of annual T_CA anomaly in Northeast China is classified into 3 types: Chilling injury year but no damage, common damage year and serious damage year. Risks of chilling injury are calculated and regression equations are built. Finally, a model of space grid annual average T_CA is constructed by geographical factors, including the latitude, longitude and altitude, and the probabilities of chilling injury are calculated by application of GIS. The risk index of maize chilling injury is a multiplication of disaster probability, vulnerability and exposure. Therefore, risks of maize chilling injury in Northeast China are assessed. The assessment shows that risks are low in the northern and the southern parts, while high in the western, middle and eastern areas. High risk regions include the northeast and northwest of Songnen Plain and the north center of Jilin Province, middle risk regions include the Sanjiang Plain, and risks are low in the north of Heilongjiang Province, the southeast of Jilin Province and the whole of Liaoning Province. These results may provide guidance for maize chilling injury prevention, loss reduction and planting structure adjustment in Northeast China.
- Northeast China;
- maize chilling injury;
- risk assessment

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References(23)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Mean of T_CA in Northeast China

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Fig. 2 Risk assessment index system of maize chilling injury in Northeast China

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Fig. 3 Relationship between danger of maize chilling injury and annual mean T_CA

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Fig. 4 Danger of maize chilling injury in Northeast China

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Fig. 5 Sensitivity (a), capacity for resisting disaster (b), vulnerability (c) of maize chilling injury in Northeast China

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Fig. 6 Exposure of maize in Northeast China

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Fig. 7 Result of risk assessment of maize chilling injury in Northeast China

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Table 1 Damage inflicted temperatures and weight coefficient of T_CA in each growing period of maize

生长发育阶段	时段	致害温度/℃	权重系数
苗期	5月中旬—6月中旬	15	0.4193
拔节期	6月下旬—7月上旬	17	0.2236
开花期	7月中旬—8月上旬	18	0.2478
灌浆期	8月中旬—8月下旬	16	0.1093
*注：致害温度源自文献[16]。

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Table 2 Index of annual anomaly of T_CA in each region (unit:℃)

冷害程度	Ⅰ区	Ⅱ区	Ⅲ区	Ⅳ区
严重冷害	ΔS < -7.1	ΔS < -8.7	ΔS < -9.9	ΔS < -10.6
一般冷害	-7.1≤ΔS < -3.3	-8.7≤ΔS < -4.9	-9.9≤ΔS < -5.6	-10.6≤ΔS < -6.4
无冷害影响	ΔS≥-3.3	ΔS≥-4.9	ΔS≥-5.6	ΔS≥-6.4

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