Meteorological Disaster Index and Risk Assessment of Frost Injury During Apple Florescence

Qu Zhenjiang; Zhou Guangsheng; Wei Qinping

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20160401

Vol.27, NO.4, 2016

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2016 > 27(4): 385-395

Qu Zhenjiang, Zhou Guangsheng, Wei Qinping. Meteorological disaster index and risk assessment of frost injury during apple florescence. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(4): 385-395. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160401.

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Qu Zhenjiang, Zhou Guangsheng, Wei Qinping. Meteorological disaster index and risk assessment of frost injury during apple florescence. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(4): 385-395. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160401.

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Meteorological Disaster Index and Risk Assessment of Frost Injury During Apple Florescence

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160401

1.
Shaanxi Meteorological Service Station for Economic Crops, Xi'an 710015
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
3.
Beijing Academy of Agriculture & Forestry Sciences, Beijing 100093

Received Date: 2016-03-24
Rev Recd Date: 2016-05-12
Publish Date: 2016-07-31

Abstract

Abstract

Frost injury during the florescence is one of the most serious meteorological disasters affecting the production and quality of apple. In temperate regions, effects of frost damage on deciduous fruit trees during florescence exceed effects of winter freeze. The risk of frost injury in the apple florescence depends on the developmental stage and disaster-causing factors. The minimum temperatures or frost days are usually adopted as disaster-causing factors, but single index cannot reflect combined effects of meteorological factors on frost injury.The disaster exposure index and the dominant disaster-causing factors are determined based on the geographical distribution of frost injury during the apple florescence, meteorological data, together with the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS spatial analysis technique. An assessment is carried out on the main cultivated area using meteorological data from 2084 meteorological stations during 1981-2013. Results indicate that the frost injury occurs when the effective accumulated temperature (daily maximum air temperature is no less than 6℃) reaches 420-550℃·d before flower-beginning. The dominant disaster-causing factors and their thresholds to the frost injury in influence descending order are listed as follows: The maximum diurnal range of temperature (no less than 22℃), the extreme minimum temperature (no more than-2℃), the precipitation (no more than 5 mm) and the accumulated daily minimum temperature below 0℃ (no more than-14℃·d) in processes of strong cold air. The higher risk areas include northern Xinjiang, western and northern Loess Plateau, especially the plateau area of the western Sichuan, while risks in areas around the Bohai Bay and the Old Course of the Yellow River are lower. The distribution of risk areas are related with the apple phenophase and routes of cold air. The disaster affected degree also varies according to different cultivars.
- frost injury during apple florescence;
- meteorological index;
- risk;
- maximum entropy model (MaxEnt)

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References(43)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 The study area and geographical distribution of weather stations and frost injury in the apple florescence

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Fig. 2 Validity of the first flowering date of apple in the study area simulated by the exposure risk indices

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Fig. 3 Risk distribution of frost injury in the apple florescence in China

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Table 1 Potential climate factors affecting the distribution of frost injury in the apple florescence

因子分类	表征意义	潜在气候因子	引用文献
暴露性风险影响因子	Ⅰ表征果树生长发育阶段	花前日平均气温大于等于3℃的有效积温 (∑T_a3/(℃·d))	[27-28, 31]
		花前日平均气温大于等于5℃的有效积温 (∑T_a5/(℃·d))	[27-28, 30]
		花前日最高气温大于等于6℃有效积温 (∑T_m/(℃·d))	[27, 29-30]
致灾风险影响因子	Ⅰ降温过程空气温度变化	日平均气温 (T/℃)	[11, 13]
		极端最低气温 (T_em/℃)	[1-3, 5-6, 8-10, 32, 33]
		最大日较差 (T_mr/℃)	[8, 11, 32, 34, 35]
		日最低气温小于等于0℃积温 (∑T₀/(℃·d))	[13, 16, 35-36]
	Ⅱ降温过程地表温度变化	日平均最低地表温度 (L_st/℃)	[15, 32]
		极端最低地表温度 (L_stm/℃)	[15, 32]
		日最低地温小于等于0℃积温 (∑L_st0/(℃·d))	[14]
	Ⅲ其他环境因子	过程累积降水量 (R/mm)	[12-13, 37]
		过程平均空气相对湿度 (f/%)	[12-13, 37]
		过程平均风速 (V/(m·s^-1))	[1, 13]

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Table 2 Percent contribution and permutation importance of dominant climate factors affecting the distribution of frost injury in the apple florescence

因子分类	主导因子	贡献率/%	累积贡献率/%	置换重要性/%
致灾气象因子	过程最大日较差 (T_mr/℃)	28.7	28.7	9.5
	过程极端最低气温 (T_em/℃)	26.2	54.9	38.3
	过程累积降水量 (R/mm)	20.8	75.7	10.3
	日最低气温小于等于0℃积温 (∑T₀/(℃·d))	12.1	87.8	1.1
暴露风险因子	花前日最高气温大于等于6℃有效积温 (∑T_m/(℃·d))	12.1	99.9	40.7

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Table 3 Threshold range of meteorological factors in accordance with the risk probability classification of frost injury in the apple florescence

致灾因子	高风险	中等风险	低风险
过程最大日较差 (T_mr/℃)	T_mr≥22	18≤T_mr＜22	15≤T_mr＜18
过程极端最低气温 (T_em/℃)	T_em≤-2	-2＜T_em≤1	1＜T_em≤4
过程累积降水量 (R/mm)	R≤5	5＜R≤20	20＜R≤50
日最低气温小于等于0℃积温 (∑T₀/(℃·d))	∑T≤-14	-14＜∑T≤-8	-8＜∑T≤-3

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Table 4 Comparative analysis of simulated and actual frost injury in the apple florescence

主产区	省份	验证点	地理位置	海拔/m	模拟结果一致率/%
黄土高原产区	陕西	洛川	35°49′N，109°30′E	1159.8	85
	山西	临猗	35°08′N，110°47′E	387.9	90
	甘肃	静宁	35°31′N，105°43′E	1656.4	80
	宁夏	吴忠	37°59′N，106°11′E	1128.8	85
环渤海湾产区	山东	栖霞	37°18′N，120°50′E	171.5	75
	辽宁	普兰店	39°24′N，121°58′E	31.5	75
	河北	深州	38°00′N，115°33′E	26.1	85
黄河故道产区	河南	灵宝	34°32′N，110°53′E	390.4	75
黄河故道产区	江苏	丰县	34°41′N，116°35′E	40.1	80
西南高地产区	云南	昭阳	27°21′N，103°43′E	1949.5	75
	四川	小金	31°00′N，102°21′E	2369.2	60
	四川	盐源	27°26′N，101°31′E	2545.0	65
新疆产区	新疆	阿克苏	41°10′N，80°14′E	1103.8	75
新疆产区	新疆	伊宁	43°57′N，81°20′E	662.5	80

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