Wu Li, Huo Zhiguo, Yang Jianying, et al. Early-warning of low-temperature disaster levels on double-cropping rice in Southern China based on Fisher's discriminant. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(4): 396-406. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20160402.
Citation: Wu Li, Huo Zhiguo, Yang Jianying, et al. Early-warning of low-temperature disaster levels on double-cropping rice in Southern China based on Fisher's discriminant. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(4): 396-406. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20160402.

Early-warning of Low-temperature Disaster Levels on Double-cropping Rice in Southern China Based on Fisher's Discriminant

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160402
  • Received Date: 2015-10-09
  • Rev Recd Date: 2016-01-25
  • Publish Date: 2016-07-31
  • Rice is the main food crop in southern China. So far, low-temperature disaster has become one of the main agricultural meteorological disasters which influence the production of rice. Spring low-temperature disaster of early rice and autumn cold dew wind of late rice are the main low-temperature disasters in double-cropping rice growing areas in southern China. However, the frequency of low-temperature disaster has decreased in some regions while increased in other regions, and the damage to the rice yield even increases under the background of global warming. In order to reduce the yield loss and build comprehensive forecasting and early-warning technical architecture, the low-temperature disaster is deeply looked into. Using the software SPSS and methods of factor puffing, correlation analysis and Fisher's discriminant, a series of data are analyzed, including daily meteorological data, rice growing period data from 708 weather stations located in the planting region of double-cropping rice in the south during 1961-2010, together with meteorological industry standards. An early-warning model is established to forecast low-temperature disasters for spring rice in high risk areas (area Ⅰ) 10 days in advance, and for autumn rice in both high risk areas (areaⅠ) and main disaster areas (area Ⅱ) 5 days in advance.Based on data during 1961-2009, the model constructed is used for hindcast, and data of 2010 is used for evaluation. The average basically consistent accuracy of the early-warning model in area Ⅰ of early rice, late japonica rice and late indica rice is 90.5%, 74.2% and 80.3%, respectively. As for area Ⅱ of late japonica rice and late indica rice, the average basically consistent accuracy of the early-warning model is 89.4% and 80.3%, respectively. On the whole, the average basically consistent accuracy of the early-warning model is above 80%, and the error is within one level, showing good efficiency.
  • Fig. 1  Distribution of 708 stations of double-cropping rice growing areas in southern China

    Fig. 2  Division of early-warning region of low-temperature disaster to double-cropping rice in southern China

    (a) early rice, (b) late rice

    Table  1  Level index of spring low-temperature disaster to double-cropping early rice

    等级 指标
    日平均气温/℃ 过程持续日数/d
    轻度灾害 <12 3~5
    中度灾害 <12 6~9
    重度灾害 <12 ≥10
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  2  Level index of cold dew wind to double-cropping late rice

    等级 粳稻 籼稻
    日平均气温/℃ 过程持续日数/d 日平均气温/℃ 过程持续日数/d
    轻度灾害 <20 3 <22 3
    中度灾害 <20 4 <22 4
    重度灾害 <20 ≥5 <22 ≥5
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  3  Level impact factors of spring low-temperature disaster to early rice of Yujiang Station

    序号 含义 相关系数
    X1 前1候平均风速 0.434*
    X2 前1候—前2候平均风速 0.307*
    X3 前1候日降水量 0.280
    X4 前1候—前3候平均风速 0.272
    X5 前1候—前4候平均风速 0.272
    X6 前3候—前4候日最高气温 -0.254
    X7 前1候日最低气温 -0.235
    X8 前3候—前4候日平均气温 -0.229
    X9 前1候日平均气温 -0.228
    X10 前2候—前3候平均本站气压 -0.227
    注:*表示达到0.05显著性水平。
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  4  Level impact factors of cold dew wind to japonica rice of Mojiang Station

    序号 含义 相关系数
    X1 前1候日平均气温 -0.449**
    X2 前1候日最高气温 -0.368**
    X3 前1候—前2候日平均气温 -0.361*
    X4 前1候—前3候日平均气温 -0.361*
    X5 前1候—前4候日平均气温 -0.357*
    X6 前1候—前2候日最低气温 -0.345*
    X7 前1候日最低气温 -0.344*
    X8 前1候—前3候日最低气温 -0.336*
    X9 前4候平均本站气压 -0.317*
    X10 前3候—前4候平均本站气压 -0.281
    注:**表示达到0.01显著性水平, *表示达到0.05显著性水平。
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  5  Level impact factors of cold dew wind to indica rice of Xinjin Station

    序号 含义 相关系数
    X1 前1候—前2候平均风速 0.540***
    X2 前1候—前3候平均风速 0.476**
    X3 前1候平均风速 0.474**
    X4 前1候—前4候平均风速 0.413**
    X5 前1候日最高气温 -0.366*
    X6 前3候日照时数 0.325*
    X7 前1候日平均气温 -0.297*
    X8 前2候—前3候日照时数 0.295*
    注:***表示达到0.001显著性水平,**表示达到0.01显著性水平, *表示达到0.05显著性水平。
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  6  Barycentric coordinates of each category of Yujiang Station

    等级 三维坐标
    第1维度 第2维度 第3维度
    0 0.675 0.572 -0.198
    1 0.117 -0.682 0.202
    2 -1.427 0.598 0.225
    3 -1.764 -1.367 -2.719
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  7  Single back substitution and prediction test of three stations

    年份 余江站 墨江站 新津站
    实测 回代与预测 误差 实测 回代与预测 误差 实测 回代与预测 误差
    1961 1 1 0 3 3 0 3 1 2
    1962 1 1 0 0 3 3 3 3 0
    1963 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0
    1964 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 3
    1965 2 2 0 2 2 0 3 3 0
    1966 0 2 2 2 2 0 3 3 0
    1967 0 1 1 2 2 0 3 3 0
    1968 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2
    1969 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
    1970 1 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
    1971 1 1 0 0 2 2 3 3 0
    1972 0 1 1 0 3 3 0 0 0
    1973 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 0
    1974 1 0 1 2 2 0 3 3 0
    1975 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 3 3
    1976 3 3 0 0 0 0 3 1 2
    1977 1 0 1 3 3 0 1 1 0
    1978 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 2
    1979 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
    1980 1 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 0
    1981 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
    1982 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
    1983 2 0 2 0 0 0 1 3 2
    1984 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    1985 1 1 0 1 1 0 3 2 1
    1986 0 2 2 3 3 0 3 1 2
    1987 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0
    1988 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
    1989 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    1990 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
    1991 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
    1992 2 2 0 0 0 1 3 1 2
    1993 1 3 2 0 3 3 0 2 2
    1994 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0
    1995 1 0 1 3 3 0 3 1 2
    1996 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    1997 0 0 0 3 3 0 3 3 0
    1998 2 3 1 0 0 0 2 2 0
    1999 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0
    2000 0 1 1 0 3 3 0 0 0
    2001 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
    2002 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0
    2003 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    2004 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    2005 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
    2006 0 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 0
    2007 0 0 0 3 3 0 2 0 2
    2008 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
    2009 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    2010 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
    DownLoad: Download CSV

    Table  8  The extending prediction test of the early-warning model of rolling on a daily basis in different regions

    作物 研究区 代表站 滚动次数 误差0级
    数量
    误差1级
    数量
    误差2级
    数量
    误差3级
    数量
    基本一致
    准确率/%
    早稻 Ⅰ区 温州 28 10 18 0 0 100
    桂阳 23 7 12 3 1 82.6
    余江 23 11 9 3 0 87.0
    晚粳稻 Ⅰ区 墨江 22 11 3 4 4 63.6
    北川 22 17 3 1 1 90.9
    永德 22 11 4 4 3 68.2
    Ⅱ区 邵东 22 17 3 1 1 90.9
    乐安 22 17 3 2 0 90.9
    永福 22 13 6 2 1 86.4
    晚籼稻 Ⅰ区 景东 22 12 5 1 4 77.3
    新津 22 15 3 2 2 81.8
    镇沅 22 14 4 1 3 81.8
    Ⅱ区 涟源 22 13 2 4 3 68.2
    崇仁 22 19 2 1 0 95.5
    柳州 22 12 5 4 1 77.3
    DownLoad: Download CSV
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    • Received : 2015-10-09
    • Accepted : 2016-01-25
    • Published : 2016-07-31

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