Recent Research Advances on the Interannual-interdecadal Variations of Drought/Flood in South China and Associated Causes

Li Weijing; Zhang Ruonan; Sun Chenghu; Ren Hongchang; Liu Jingpeng; Zuo Jinqing; Li Xiang

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20160507

Vol.27, NO.5, 2016

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2016 > 27(5): 577-591

Li Weijing, Zhang Ruonan, Sun Chenghu, et al. Recent research advances on the interannual-interdecadal variations of drought/flood in South China and associated causes. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(5): 577-591. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160507.

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Li Weijing, Zhang Ruonan, Sun Chenghu, et al. Recent research advances on the interannual-interdecadal variations of drought/flood in South China and associated causes. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(5): 577-591. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160507.

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Recent Research Advances on the Interannual-interdecadal Variations of Drought/Flood in South China and Associated Causes

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160507

1.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 100081
2.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
3.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2016-06-03
Rev Recd Date: 2016-07-11
Publish Date: 2016-09-30

Abstract

Abstract

Based on changes of spatial-temporal distribution of flood and drought in South China under global warming, the recent research progress on characteristics of inter-annual and inter-decadal variations of drought/flood and associated causes are reviewed. It's found there will be less precipitation in South China especially for the Yangtze valley in the developing phase of El Niño, while more precipitation in the decay phase. During the above process, the basin wide warming in tropical Indian Ocean are found to intensify the Northwestern Pacific subtropical high and shift it to a more southward position, leading to the occurrence of low-level anticyclone circulation over Northwestern Pacific, which would affect the precipitation of South China through adjusting the southerly and moisture transportation. The snow cover of the Tibet Plateau is also found as a key factor, when more snow cover occurs in spring-winter, the sensible heat flux is too weak to heat troposphere, which would reduce the meridional temperature gradient to cause a weak summer monsoon and more precipitation over the Yangtze valley, and vice versa. For synergistic effects of multi-factors on the occurrence of flood and drought in South China, results indicate it's impacted by multiple factors and cannot be dominated by one single factor. For example, the Philippine anticyclone can be impacted by the winter Tibet Plateau snow cover, El Niño and basin wide warming of tropical Indian Ocean. For the inter-decadal variation of the inter-annual relationship between flood and drought in South China and their influencing factors, strong inter-decadal variation on the relationship between the influencing factors and flood/drought are found, when these factors exhibit a strong inter-decadal variation. For example, the relationship between tropical Pacific Ocean and South China precipitation is found loose in recent decades, while the influence of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on South China is intensified. Based on the aforementioned results, it suggests more attentions being focused on the prediction strategy and method for South China to improve the predictability of drought and flood.
- drought/flood in South China;
- global warming;
- interannual-interdedal variation;
- causes

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Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 The interdecadal variation of summertime (JJA) main rain belt in China

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Fig. 2 East Asian Summer Monson index (a) and summer (JJA) rainfall index (b) over the middle reaches of the Yangtze predicted by the NAO-ENSO based empirical model (1979-2006 is the period for the model fitting, 2007-2009 for the hindcasts, 2010-2012 for the prediction)(from reference [119])

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Table 1 Correlations of the monthly PSAC index from May to August with the previous winter TPSD index, Niño3.4 SST index, and spring TIO SST index from 1960 to 2013(from reference[93])

指数	PSAC指数
指数	5月	6月	7月	8月
TPSD指数	0.16	0.39^***	0.02	0.17
Niño3.4指数	0.54^***	0.30^**	0.50^***	0.29^**
TIO指数	0.55^***	0.27^**	0.34^**	0.41^***
注:表示达到0.1显著性水平，表示达到0.05显著性水平，**表示达到0.01显著性水平。

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