Progress on Mechanism and Prediction Methods for Persistent Extreme Precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley

Zhai Panmao; Li Lei; Zhou Baiquan; Chen Yang

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20160511

Vol.27, NO.5, 2016

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2016 > 27(5): 631-640

Zhai Panmao, Li Lei, Zhou Baiquan, et al. Progress on mechanism and prediction methods for persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(5): 631-640. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160511.

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Zhai Panmao, Li Lei, Zhou Baiquan, et al. Progress on mechanism and prediction methods for persistent extreme precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(5): 631-640. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160511.

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Progress on Mechanism and Prediction Methods for Persistent Extreme Precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20160511

Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2016-06-12
Rev Recd Date: 2016-08-04
Publish Date: 2016-09-30

Abstract

Abstract

Persistent extreme precipitation (PEP) results in severe floods in China, especially in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley (YHRV), making it one of the main weather disasters in China. There exists an urgent need to enhance understandings on the formation mechanism and developing rules of PEP and extend forecast valid time of the PEP for the scientific decision of government.In recent years, progress has been achieved from related studies on the formation mechanism and forecast method of PEP in the YHRV which has caught wide attention. The method of automatically identifying regional PEP events is established which is named as RePEEI (Regional Persistent Extreme Event Identifier). Conceptual model is established on the large-scale circulation patterns responsible for PEP events, revealing that concurrent anomalies of the key influential systems are important causes for the occurrence and maintenance of PEP, and precursor signals (about 1-2 weeks prior to the onset of PEP) are investigated. Taking East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern (EAP) as a point of penetration, the mechanism of its effects on PEP is explored. Moreover, it indicates that whether the PEP will occur in YHRV is decided by the north-south location of high systems at low latitudes. Schematics for precursor circulation features of typical EAP patterns responsible for persistent extreme precipitation events in the YHRV is established. And corresponding precursor signals are also obtained, the feasibility of predicting PEP on the use of EAP is discussed. Furthermore, based on the key influential systems and precursor signals found above in characteristic large-scale circulation patterns, the physical statistical forecast model for the prediction of PEP is established, which is named as KISAM (Key Influential Systems based Analog Model), with the idea of parameter optimization method and ensemble mean introduced, using different predictors and cosine angular analog method with weight assigned.However, the forecast of PEP is still a challenge, especially when the forecast lead time extends to medium range or even extended range. The performance of numerical models in predicting the occurrence and location of PEP still leaves much to be solved. How to further improve direct outputs of numerical models and combine model outputs with physical statistical methods to improve the forecast of PEP is a research area that needs much more study.

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Figures and Tables

图 1 双阻型持续性暴雨同期和前期环流配置概念模型^{[20, 23]}

(a) 同期三维环流配置概念模型 (H和L分别代表高值 (脊) 和低值 (槽) 的位置；200 hPa, 500 hPa图中粗实线代表位势高度以及急流轴；850 hPa图中粗实线代表水汽输送路径，虚线代表异常反气旋)，(b) 前期环流演变特征三维概念模型 (200 hPa图中黑色实线代表 12500 gpm线，绿色实线代表急流轴，空心箭头代表移动方向，蓝色箭头代表风场; 500 hPa图中带箭头实线代表流线，紫色阴影代表正高度距平，蓝色阴影代表负高度距平，数字代表标准差，单位：dagpm; 850 hPa图中A代表异常反气旋中心，蓝色箭头代表风场)

Fig. 1 Schematics for concurrent and precursor circulation features responsible for PEP events of double blocking high type (from reference [20, 23])

(a) concurrent conceptual model schematics (H and L denote locations of high (ridge) and low (trough) systems, respectively; solid lines denote geopotential height contours and locations of the jet axis at 200 hPa and 500 hPa; solid lines with arrowheads denote water-vapour transport paths and dashed line denotes the location of the anomalous anticyclone which contribute most heavily to the anomalous moisture supply at 850 hPa), (b) schematics for precursor circulation features (black solid line with arrowhead denotes geopotential height contour of 12500 gpm, the green line denotes the jet axis, hollow arrows denote moving direction and blue arrows denote direction of the horizontal wind at 200 hPa; black solid lines with arrowhead denote streamlines, purple and blue shadings denote positive anomalies and negative anomalies of geopotential height with the regional average normalized anomaly values (unit:dagpm) at 500 hPa; A denotes the anomalous anticyclone, blue arrows denote anomalous southwesterlies at 850 hPa)

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Fig. 2 Schematics for precursor circulation features of typical EAP patterns responsible for persistent extreme precipitation events in the YHRV (hollow arrows denote propagating routes of these precursors, red and blue shadings denote positive and negative anomalies of geopotential height with regional average normalized anomaly values, respectively; A denotes the anomalous anticyclone, while C denotes the anomalous cyclone)(from refrence [26])

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图 3 EAP指数的小波分解^[31]

(a) 显著 (达到0.05显著性水平) 的周期成分在某日的累积概率 (阴影)，(b) 达到0.05显著性水平的全局能谱的累积概率

Fig. 3 Wavelet analysis of EAP index (from refrence [31])

(a) occurrence frequency (the shaded) of significant oscillations accumulated (0.05 level at least), (b) occurrence frequency of global wavelet spectrums at 0.05 significant level

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Fig. 4 Schematic graph of the forecast model based on key influential systems-KISAM

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图 5 两种遥相关背景下的持续性极端降水事件中，各遥相关指数合成的时间演变 (横坐标0代表降水开始日数，负数表示降水开始前，正数表征降水开始后)^[31]

(a) 只有东亚—太平洋遥相关作用，(b)3支遥相关波列同时存在时，(c) 两种事件中降水的合成

Fig. 5 The composition of the corresponding teleconnection index during PEP events under the effect of two different teleconnection patterns (0 on abscissa indicates the day when precipitation occurred, negative and positive numbers indicate days before and after the occurrence of precipitation, respectively)(from refrence [31])

(a) only East Asia/Pacific teleconnection exists, (b) three kinds of teleconnection exists, (c) the composition of precipitation associated with two teleconnection patterns

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Table 1 Distribution of low frequency oscillation of precipitation and EAP in each event when PEP occurred

年份	周期
年份	10~30 d		30~60 d
1982	PRE	EAP	PRE	EAP
1983	PRE
1986	PRE	EAP
1989	PRE	EAP
1991	PRE			EAP
1993	PRE
1995	PRE			EAP
1996	PRE	EAP	PRE
1998	PRE	EAP	PRE	EAP
1999	PRE	EAP		EAP
2000	PRE	EAP
2009	PRE	EAP		EAP

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