A New Index for Surface Sensible Heat Flux over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Possible Impacts on the Rainfall in South China

Dai Yifei; Li Dongliang; Wang Hui

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20170203

Vol.28, NO.2, 2017

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Dai Yifei, Li Dongliang, Wang Hui. A new index for surface sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau and its possible impacts on the rainfall in South China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(2): 157-167. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170203.

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Dai Yifei, Li Dongliang, Wang Hui. A new index for surface sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau and its possible impacts on the rainfall in South China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(2): 157-167. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170203.

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A New Index for Surface Sensible Heat Flux over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Possible Impacts on the Rainfall in South China

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170203

Dai Yifei^1,2,
Li Dongliang^{1,2
,
,},
Wang Hui^1,2

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044

Received Date: 2016-03-23
Rev Recd Date: 2016-12-02
Publish Date: 2017-03-31

Abstract

Abstract

The intensity of surface sensible heat flux (SH) over the Tibetan Plateau is one of the most significant prior signals for precipitation anomalies in China. However, it's always a challenge to establish an index to describe the strength of SH due to the lack of corresponding observations and the complex topography. Based on the monthly surface sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau which is calculated from observations including air temperature, land surface temperature, near surface wind speed and pressure in 70 meteorological stations provided by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) remote sensing satellites and the season reliant EOF method (SEOF), 4 representative stations are chosen, a new sensible heat index (I_SH) is defined, and then the monthly I_SH from 1982 to 2012 is calculated. By comparing with the average sensible heat in 70 stations which represents the regional averaged sensible heat condition in the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau, surface heating strength index (B-H) and two indices of Xizang Plateau from National Climate Center, it's concluded that the inter-annual variabilities of I_SH can represent the surface sensible heat in the middle and eastern region of the Tibetan Plateau, and this index has better relationship with two indices of Xizang Plateau than B-H, especially in winter, which mean I_SH reflects geopotential height anomalies respond to surface heat better. Then the relationship between I_SH in spring and the summer rainfall (total precipitation in June and July) in South China from 1982 to 2012 is discussed based on the monthly rainfall data in 92 meteorological stations provided by CMA and the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Results show that I_SH in spring bears significant negative correlations with summer rainfall in South China. The larger index in spring indicates higher geopotential height in mid-low latitudes and lower in high latitudes during next several months, and the positive anomalies in mid-low latitudes transfer from middle troposphere to upper and maintain in 200 hPa, which may lead to the westward extension of subtropical high in 500 hPa, the South Asian high in 200 hPa and westerly wind around 40°N enhancing, whereafter, it may result in the downdraft and southerly wind enhancing, but water vapor convergence subside in South China, moisture can be transported to northern region through South China. And finally, it will cause the reduction of precipitation in South China during the summertime. In addition, negative correlations will become even more significant after removing the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) in regions of Niño3.4, which indicates there may be more complex coupled influence derived from the Tibetan Plateau heating and SST anomalies in Niño regions.
- the Tibetan Plateau;
- surface sensible heat flux;
- precipitation;
- circulation anomaly

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References(34)

Figures and Tables

图 1 1982—2012年高原地面感热SEOF第1模态空间分布

(a) 冬季，(b) 春季，(c) 夏季，(d) 秋季

Fig. 1 SEOF first modal directional distribution of surface sensible heat flux over the Tibetan Plateau from 1982 to 2012

(a) winter, (b) spring, (c) summer, (d) autumn

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

Fig. 2 Distribution of four representative stations

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 3 1982-2012年春季I_SH和华南地区92个气象站7—8月降水量的简单相关系数 (a) 和剔除Niño3.4指数的偏相关系数 (b) 分布

(阴影表示达到0.05显著性水平)

Fig. 3 Distribution of simple correlation coefficient (a) and partial correlation coefficient (b) between I_SH in spring and Jul-Aug total precipitation of 92 meteorological stations in South China from 1982 to 2012

(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 4 5月I_SH与5—8月逐月各等压面高度场的相关分布

(阴影表示达到0.05显著性水平)

Fig. 4 Distribution of monthly correlation coefficient between I_SH in May and geopotential height from May to Aug

(the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 5 高原春季感热偏强 (弱) 年合成的7—8月地面到300 hPa水汽通量 (矢量) 及其水汽通量散度 (填色)

(红框内为本文研究的华南区域)(a) 感热偏强年，(b) 感热偏弱年

Fig. 5 Moisture tranfer (the vector) and its divergence (the shaded) in Jul and Aug (integral going from ground to 300 hPa)

(red box denotes the researched precipitation area)(a) stronger I_SH in spring, (b) weaker I_SH in spring

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 6 高原春季感热偏强 (弱) 年合成的110°~120°E平均的垂直速度的高度-经度剖面图

(单位：0.01 Pa/s，阴影表示达到0.05显著性水平)(a) 感热偏强年，(b) 感热偏弱年

Fig. 6 Zonal mean (110°-120°E) vertical velocity field

(unit:0.01 Pa/s, the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level)(a) stronger I_SH in spring, (b) weaker I_SH in spring

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

Table 1 Constant A and the climatological mean values M of four representative stations

月份	A				M
月份	日喀则	班玛	稻城	囊谦	M
1	1.2	1.2	1.5	1.2	6.2
2	1.2	1.2	1.45	1.2	14.0
3	1.2	1.2	1.45	1.2	24.5
4	1.2	1.2	1.45	1.2	33.9
5	1.3	1.45	1.5	1.4	38.9
6	1.3	1.6	1.55	1.6	30.3
7	1.4	1.7	1.55	1.7	22.9
8	1.4	1.7	1.55	1.7	20.2
9	1.4	1.65	1.6	1.6	17.3
10	1.2	1.4	1.6	1.4	14.1
11	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.2	9.2
12	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.2	5.0

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Table 2 Monthly correlation coefficients between I_SH and other Plateau indices from 1982 to 2012

月份	70个站平均感热距平	B-H指数	IXZ1	IXZ2
1	0.66	0.59	-0.42	-0.34
2	0.67	0.53	-0.49	-0.48
3	0.73	0.34	-0.27	-0.21
4	0.77	-0.12	-0.52	-0.47
5	0.78	-0.05	-0.36	-0.39
6	0.85	0.43	-0.29	-0.37
7	0.65	0.17	0.08	0.01
8	0.91	0.53	0.01	0.17
9	0.83	0.26	-0.22	-0.30
10	0.80	0.09	-0.51	-0.40
11	0.82	0.46	-0.41	-0.34
12	0.56	0.32	-0.16	-0.16
注：0.01显著性水平的临界值为0.456，0.05显著性水平的临界值为0.355。

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