Indicators and Risk of Spring Corn Waterlogging Disaster in Jianghan and West Region of Jiangnan

Yang Hongyi; Huo Zhiguo; Yang Jianying; Zhang Guixiang; Wu Li; Fan Yuxian

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20170211

Vol.28, NO.2, 2017

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Yang Hongyi, Huo Zhiguo, Yang Jianying, et al. Indicators and risk of spring corn waterlogging disaster in Jianghan and west region of Jiangnan. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(2): 237-246. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170211.

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Yang Hongyi, Huo Zhiguo, Yang Jianying, et al. Indicators and risk of spring corn waterlogging disaster in Jianghan and west region of Jiangnan. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(2): 237-246. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170211.

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Indicators and Risk of Spring Corn Waterlogging Disaster in Jianghan and West Region of Jiangnan

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170211

1.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
3.
Guangzhou Agriculture Meteorology and Climate Center, Guangzhou 511430
4.
Fujian Meteorology Service Center, Fuzhou 350001

Received Date: 2016-11-23
Rev Recd Date: 2017-01-20
Publish Date: 2017-03-31

Abstract

Abstract

Current precipitation process and antecedent precipitation have important influences on spring corn waterlogging disaster, and therefore establishing level indicators of spring corn waterlogging disaster is of great scientific significance on real-time dynamic disaster monitoring, early warning and risk assessment. Analyzing the risk of spring corn waterlogging disaster provides technical support to regional preventing disasters and reducing damages, adjusting plantation structure, establishing agricultural insurance countermeasures, as well as business development, service and application of waterlogging disaster monitoring. It ensures national food security and guarantees sustained and steady development of agriculture production. Taking spring corn in Jianghan and west region of Jiangnan as research foci, data of different growth stages at 57 stations in the study area from 1961 to 2012 are investigated, which consist of daily precipitation data, spring corn growth period data and waterlogging disaster data. Current process precipitation and antecedent precipitation's influence on spring corn waterlogging disaster is quantitatively analyzed by using multivariate linear regression analysis, and hereby, "equivalent precipitation" is established. Based on normal distribution Lilliefors test and t-distribution interval estimation method, equivalent precipitation indicator thresholds of different waterlogging disaster levels during different growth stages are calculated. Then, spring corn waterlogging disaster level indicators during different growth stages are determined by thresholds, and verified by independent samples. On this basis, spring corn waterlogging disaster risk index of each station is calculated using risk assessment method based on information diffuse theory. Main results are as follows. First, in the study area, precipitation of current process and the first two ten-day have significant influence on spring corn waterlogging disaster with weight factors coefficients being 0.725, 0.171 and 0.104, respectively. Second, the equivalent precipitation indicator thresholds of spring corn waterlogging disaster of light, moderate and severe level are 56, 93 mm (without severe level) in seeding-jointing stage; 65, 104, 161 mm in jointing-tasseling stage; and 74, 115, 182 mm in tasseling-maturing stage. The spring corn waterlogging disaster level indicators can well reflect actual disaster situation, and there is high consistency between verification result and history record. Third, the risk of spring corn waterlogging disaster is relatively low during seeding-jointing stage and jointing-tasseling stage, by contrast tasseling-maturing stage is a high-risk period during which high-risk areas mainly include Enshi, southwest of Yichang, southwest of Jingzhou, and north of Zhangjiajie.
- Jianghan and west region of Jiangnan;
- spring corn;
- equivalent precipitation;
- waterlogging disaster level indicators;
- risk assessment

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References(55)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Distribution of meteorological stations in the target area

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Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of spring corn waterlogging disaster risk index

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Table 1 Equivalent precipitation characteristics of spring corn waterlogging disaster samples

生育期	灾情等级	样本量	最小当量	最大当量	平均当量	标准差/mm
生育期	灾情等级	样本量	降水量/mm	降水量/mm	降水量/mm	标准差/mm
出苗-拔节期	轻	61	47.8	107.5	78.8	13.9
出苗-拔节期	中	34	85.2	163.5	117.6	16.5
拔节-抽雄期	轻	87	51.7	120.1	89.2	14.6
	中	44	93.8	188.6	138.8	22.6
	重	15	166.8	239.5	200.9	24.1
抽雄-成熟期	轻	218	67.9	137.0	100.0	15.6
	中	188	94.0	211.2	154.4	23.9
	重	98	173.2	362.2	245.4	43.3

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Table 2 Lilliefors test results and 95% confidence interval for the average of equivalent precipitation sequence

生育期	灾情等级	95%置信区间/mm	Lilliefors检验值
出苗-拔节期	轻	56.0~101.6	0.5000
出苗-拔节期	中	93.1~145.9	0.1164^*
拔节-抽雄期	轻	65.1~113.2	0.0958
	中	104.5~179.5	0.0516^*
	重	161.3~240.5	0.2921
抽雄-成熟期	轻	74.3~125.7	0.0689
	中	115.1~193.8	0.4628
	重	181.9~321.3	0.3259
注：*代表对样本序列进行对数变换后的新样本序列Lilliefors检验值。

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Table 3 Spring corn waterlogging disaster level indicators during different growth stages

生育期	灾情等级	当量降水量/mm
出苗-拔节期	轻	56≤P_e＜93
出苗-拔节期	中	P_e≥93
拔节-抽雄期	轻	65≤P_e＜104
	中	104≤P_e＜161
	重	P_e≥161
抽雄-成熟期	轻	74≤P_e＜115
	中	115≤P_e＜182
	重	P_e≥182

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Table 4 Verification of spring corn waterlogging disaster indicators

涝渍灾害	历史记录	历史记录	指标计算	指标计算	符合
起止时间	发生地点	灾情描述	发生地点	灾情等级	程度
1987-05-25—27	公安	严重受渍	公安	中	符合
1989-05-09—10	长阳、宜都	受灾	长阳、宜都	中、轻	基本符合
1991-05-21—26	石首	受淹，部分无收	石首	中	符合
1974-05-07—09	凤凰	受灾	凤凰	轻	符合
1979-06-04—05	石首	基本无收，改种	石首	重	符合
1988-05-17—21	辰溪、泸溪、麻阳	受灾	辰溪、泸溪、麻阳	重、轻、轻	基本符合
1976-06-08—09	桃源	受灾	桃源	轻	符合
2004-05-15—16	怀化	受灾	靖州、通道	轻、中	基本符合
2007-05-28—06-04	张家界	部分绝收	桑植、慈利	中、中	符合
1962-06-23	松滋	内渍成灾	松滋	中	符合
1963-07-29—08-05	宜都	渍水成灾，水冲沙压	宜都	中	符合
1975-06-25—27	利川	山洪暴发	利川	重	符合
1979-06-23—25	五峰	受灾	五峰	轻	符合
1979-07-12—16	郧阳	受灾	竹山、竹溪	轻、轻	符合
1982-07-26—30	咸丰	被冲毁冲光	咸丰	重	符合
1976-07-13—20	桑植	淹没，水冲沙压	桑植	中	符合
1983-06-26—07-10	安乡、澧县、石门、临澧	特大洪涝灾害	安乡、澧县、石门、临澧	重、重、重、重	符合
1986-07-13—23	湘西	受灾	龙山、永顺、古丈、泸溪	轻、轻、中、轻	基本符合
1997-07-07—09	桃源	最为严重，成灾	桃源	中	符合

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