Drought Risk Regionalization of Potatoes in Inner Mongolia

Wang Yongli; Hou Qiong; Miao Bailing; Yun Wenli; Jia Chengzhen

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20170411

Vol.28, NO.4, 2017

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2017 > 28(4): 504-512

Wang Yongli, Hou Qiong, Miao Bailing, et al. Drought risk regionalization of potatoes in Inner Mongolia. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(4): 504-512. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170411.

Citation:

Wang Yongli, Hou Qiong, Miao Bailing, et al. Drought risk regionalization of potatoes in Inner Mongolia. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(4): 504-512. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170411.

Wang Yongli, Hou Qiong, Miao Bailing, et al. Drought risk regionalization of potatoes in Inner Mongolia. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(4): 504-512. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170411.

Citation:

Wang Yongli, Hou Qiong, Miao Bailing, et al. Drought risk regionalization of potatoes in Inner Mongolia. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(4): 504-512. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170411.

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Drought Risk Regionalization of Potatoes in Inner Mongolia

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170411

1.
Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot 010051
2.
Meteorological Research Institute of Inner Mongolia, Hohhot 010051

Received Date: 2017-02-20
Rev Recd Date: 2016-01-13
Publish Date: 2017-07-31

Abstract

Abstract

Drought is a primary determinant agro-meteorological disaster which constrains the potato yield in Inner Mongolia. The classification of drought risk is particularly significant for disaster risk assessment and mitigation. Utilizing meteorological data of 73 stations from 1979 to 2013, historical drought disaster records with potato yield data and social attribute data, the extent of the potato drought disaster in Inner Mongolia is investigated.Results from the use of GIS spatial analysis and the fuzzy clustering method are pertained from the aspects of drought-causing factor risk indices, the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, the exposure of the disaster environment and the evaluation index system of disaster prevention and mitigation capacity in the region.Based on the regression model, thresholds for light drought, medium drought and heavy drought are derived from the regression model portrayed as linear between the percentage of negative anomalies of precipitation and the relative meteorological yield in the central western and eastern Inner Mongolia, combined with the agricultural drought grade and the precipitation anomaly percentage under the national criterion of meteorological and drought grade.It opens up opportunities to fully exploit the use of drought index as an indicator of the distribution of the drought risk, and thus it is of immense importance in monitoring the smooth decreasing tendency from west to east.High risk areas covering 19.1% are mainly distributed in northeastern Ordos, southern and northern Hohhot, most regions in Wulanchabu and Xilinhhot in the southern region. The middle risk zone is primarily distributed in some areas of Hohhot, the central and southern of Chifeng, the northwest of Tongliao, the northeast of Xing'an League, the northern of Hulunbeier, coveringing 20.1% of the total area. The lower risk areas cover 41% of the total area including the western and northern of Chifeng, the southeast of Tongliao, the southwest of Xing'an League, the southeastern of Hulunbeier, and so on.
- potato;
- drought;
- risk regionalization;
- Inner Mongolia

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References(33)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Drought risk distribution over the integrated growth period

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Fig. 2 The spatial distribution of comprehensive index in vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies

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Fig. 3 The ratio of potato planting area to total grain crops planting area

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Fig. 4 The distribution of disaster defense ability index

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Fig. 5 Potato drought risk regionalization in Inner Mongolia

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Table 1 Regression equation between yield reduction and precipitation negative anomaly percentage

地区	回归方程	相关系数	样本量
中西部	Y_d=0.5538P_a-18.393	0.412	267
东部	Y_d=0.3306P_a-18.662	0.311	205
注：P_a为降水距平百分率，Y_d为减产率。

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Table 2 The drought index of potato based on the precipitation anomaly

区域	干旱等级	P_a/%	P_a所占比例/%	Y_d/%
中西部	轻旱	-25 < P_a≤-5	47.0	-25 < Y_d≤-5
	中旱	-40 < P_a≤-25	36.6	-45 < Y_d≤-25
	重旱	P_a≤-40	16.4	Y_d≤-45
东部	轻旱	-30 < P_a≤-10	60.0	-20 < Y_d≤-5
	中旱	-45 < P_a≤-30	28.7	-40 < Y_d≤-20
	重旱	P_a≤-45	11.3	Y_d≤-40
注：P_a为降水距平百分率，Y_d为减产率。

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Table 3 Small-grid model parameters

指标	H
a₁	-4.2612
a₂	-0.0479^*
a₃	-0.0095
a₄	0.0013
a₅	4.2001
a₆	-0.4119
a₇	-0.0274
a₈	0.0001
F	6.751
R²	0.4097^*
注：^*表示达到0.001的显著性水平。

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Table 4 The risk index of potato drought and area ratio in Inner Mongolia

区号	区名	综合风险指标	面积比例/%
Ⅰ	高风险区	(0.65，1]	19.1
Ⅱ	中风险区	(0.40，0.65]	20.1
Ⅲ	较低风险区	(0.18，0.40]	41.0
Ⅳ	低风险区	(0，0.18]	19.8

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