The Probabilistic Flood Prediction Based on Implementation of the Schaake Shuffle Method over the Huaihe Basin

Zhao Linna; Liu Ying; Bao Hongjun; Wang Binyan; Bai Xuemei; Li Xiaomeng; Yang Ruiwen; Li Yitong

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20170503

Vol.28, NO.5, 2017

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2017 > 28(5): 544-554

Zhao Linna, Liu Ying, Bao Hongjun, et al. The probabilistic flood prediction based on implementation of the schaake shuffle method over the Huaihe Basin. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(5): 544-554. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170503.

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Zhao Linna, Liu Ying, Bao Hongjun, et al. The probabilistic flood prediction based on implementation of the schaake shuffle method over the Huaihe Basin. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2017, 28(5): 544-554. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170503.

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The Probabilistic Flood Prediction Based on Implementation of the Schaake Shuffle Method over the Huaihe Basin

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20170503

1.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225
3.
Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072
4.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081
5.
Heilongjiang Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Harbin 150001
6.
Jinlin Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Changchun 130062

Received Date: 2017-05-17
Rev Recd Date: 2017-06-29
Publish Date: 2017-09-30

Abstract

Abstract

Daily precipitation records of 19 rain gauges over the Huaihe Wangjiaba-Dapoling catchment and single-value forecasts of 24-hour cumulative precipitation of the Global Forecast System (GFS) with lead time up to 14 days from 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2003 are employed to construct a probability forecast model which can generate ensemble forecast based on conditional meta-Gaussian distribution. Several single-value forecasts could be computed by this model using forecasts of the GFS for daily mean areal precipitation (MAP) and cumulative MAP for each lead time (1-14 days) over 3 sub-catchments in the Huaihe Basin. Then a method is implemented to reorder the ensemble output to recover the space-time variability in precipitation, namely Schaake shuffle method. Ensembles are then reordered to match the original order of the selection of historical data. Using this approach, the observed inter sub-catchments correlations, intervariable correlations, and the observed temporal persistence are almost entirely recovered. This reordering methodology is applied in recovering the space-time variability in modeled streamflow for twelve flood processes over the Huaihe Basin. Results demonstrate that the observation of discharge is included in the interval between the 5th percentage and the 95th percentage forecasts of discharge that is generated by MAP ensemble forecasts which is calculated from the conditional meta-Gaussian distribution model and Schaake shuffle. Several members can capture the flood peak flow and the corresponding peak time. Using approach of Schaake Shuffle, sub-catchment correlations of each ensemble member forecasting could be recovered, which are closer to the observation.A test of flood forecasting result from precipitation probability forecasts of conditional meta-Gaussian distribution model and Schaake shuffle for the stream between Dapoling to Wangjiaba Hydrologic Station is carried out. It shows that MAP ensemble forecasts can provide the maximum estimation of possibility of the future hydrologic events for flood forecasting comparing to the single-value MAP forecast of GFS model. And a comprehensive interval which includes the factor that can lead to hydrologic uncertainty is also given.
- Schaake shuffle;
- conditional meta-Gaussian distribution;
- probabilistic flood forecasting;
- ensemble prediction;
- probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast

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References(40)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Illustration of the catchment and the location of 19 stations over the Huaihe Basin

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图 2 1988年9月7日—9月20日王家坝水文站流量和流域面雨量

流量预报与观测，(b)流域面雨量预报与观测

Fig. 2 The discharge and drainage areal rainfall of Wangjiaba Hydrologic Station from 7 Sep to 20 Sep in 1988

(a)forecasted discharge in comparison with observation, (b)forecasted areal rainfall in comparison with observation

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图 3 1991年7月31日—8月13日王家坝水文站流量和流域面雨量

(a)流量预报与观测, (b)流域面雨量预报与观测

Fig. 3 The discharge and drainage areal rainfall of Wangjiaba Hydrologic Station from 31 Jul to 13 Aug in 1991

(a)forecasted discharge in comparison with observation, (b)forecasted areal rainfall in comparison with observation

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Table 1 The ensemble reordering method: The ranked ensemble output

子流域1		子流域2		子流域3
集合成员排列序号	面雨量/mm	集合成员排列序号	面雨量/mm	集合成员排列序号	面雨量/mm
1	0	1	0	1	0
2	0	2	0	2	0.1
3	0.2	3	0	3	0.1
4	0.4	4	0.1	4	0.2
5	1.0	5	0.3	5	0.2
6	1.1	6	0.5	6	0.3^*
7	1.2^*	7	0.9^*	7	0.8
8	2.1	8	1.0	8	1.2
9	3.1	9	1.1	9	1.7
10	6.1	10	1.2	10	2.3

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Table 2 The ensemble reordering method: Randomly selected historical observations

序号	时间	面雨量/mm
序号	时间	子流域1	子流域2	子流域3
1	1991-09-20	2.3^*	1.2^*	0.5^*
2	1992-09-20	1.8	0.2	0.1
3	1993-09-20	0	0	0.1
4	1994-09-20	0	0.1	0
5	1995-09-20	0	0.3	0
6	1996-09-20	0	0.5	0
7	1997-09-20	7.6	3.9	6.8
8	1998-09-20	15.9	9.0	9.9
9	1999-09-20	19.8	30.1	12.7
10	2000-09-20	1.1	1.2	2.3

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Table 3 The ensemble reordering method: The ranked historical observations

子流域1		子流域2		子流域3
集合成员排列序号	面雨量/mm	集合成员排列序号	面雨量/mm	集合成员排列序号	面雨量/mm
3	0	3	0	4	0
4	0	4	0.1	5	0
5	0	2	0.2	6	0
6	0	5	0.3	3	0.1
10	1.1	6	0.5	2	0.1
2	1.8	10	1.2	1	0.5^*
1	2.3^*	1	1.2^*	10	2.3
7	7.6	7	3.9	7	6.8
8	15.9	8	9	8	9.9
9	19.8	9	30.1	9	12.7

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Table 4 The ensemble reordering method: Final ensemble(shuffled output)

序号	子流域1		子流域2		子流域3
序号	集合成员排列序号	面雨量/mm	集合成员排列序号	面雨量/mm	集合成员排列序号	面雨量/mm
1	7	1.2	7	0.9	6	0.3
2	6	1.1	3	0	5	0.2
3	1	0	1	0	4	0.2
4	2	0	2	0	1	0
5	3	0.2	4	0.1	2	0.1
6	4	0.4	5	0.3	3	0.1
7	8	2.1	8	1.0	8	1.2
8	9	3.1	9	1.1	9	1.7
9	10	6.1	10	1.2	10	2.3
10	5	1.0	6	0.5	7	0.8

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Table 5 Validation results of probabilistic 12 flood process prediction

洪水起始时间	洪峰流量预报相对误差/%			峰现预报时间误差/d
洪水起始时间	第5百分位	中位数	第95百分位	第5百分位	中位数	第95百分位
1985-05-01T08:00	-88	-52	166	7	-1	0
1985-06-17T08:00	-85	-76	88	-6	4	3
1988-09-07T08:00	-94	-78	33	-4	5	1
1989-08-03T08:00	-82	-81	-18	-8	-8	-3
1990-07-16T08:00	-95	-90	-49	-4	7	7
1991-06-09T08:00	-92	-90	-7	-7	0	1
1991-07-31T08:00	-97	-93	20	-9	1	1
1992-04-26T08:00	-91	-75	22	-12	0	0
1994-06-02T08:00	-87	-83	57	-6	3	-1
1998-06-28T08:00	-96	-92	39	-4	1	1
2000-06-20T08:00	-98	-86	-12	-11	1	-4
2003-06-25T08:00	-80	-80	0	-8	-8	4

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