Pattern Classification of Heavy Rainfall in Jianghuai Region and Associated Circulations

Tan Guirong; Fan Yiyuan; Niu Ruoyun

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20180402

Vol.29, NO.4, 2018

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Tan Guirong, Fan Yiyuan, Niu Ruoyun. Pattern classification of heavy rainfall in Jianghuai Region and associated circulations. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2018, 29(4): 396-409. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20180402.

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Tan Guirong, Fan Yiyuan, Niu Ruoyun. Pattern classification of heavy rainfall in Jianghuai Region and associated circulations. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2018, 29(4): 396-409. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20180402.

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Pattern Classification of Heavy Rainfall in Jianghuai Region and Associated Circulations

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20180402

1.
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME), Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
2.
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
3.
National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2018-02-02
Rev Recd Date: 2018-05-08
Publish Date: 2018-07-31

Abstract

Abstract

Newly reconstructed dataset of regional historical heavy rain events, daily rainfall data of 2474 observational stations in China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1981-2016, 1-10 d rainfall products of 2016 from ECMWF and T639 models are used to study heavy rainfall events in Jianghuai Region.Firstly, typical rain patterns are refined by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based on 72 heavy rainfall cases. And then the classification of the regional heavy rainfall patterns for all heavy rainfall cases is done objectively through taking corresponding circulation patterns of basic rain patterns as targets with an analogue method.Furthermore, circulation characteristics of heavy rainfall patterns in Jianghuai Region are investigated. From the prophase of heavy rainfall at 500 hPa height fields, for Type Q_Ⅰ there is an enhancing large low vortex and it splits into two centers forming a circulation type of two troughs and one ridge, with marked anomalies but small amplitudes at low latitudes near Jianghuai Region. Both Type Q_Ⅱ and Type Q_Ⅲ is dominated by meridional circulation, but Type Q_Ⅱ is dominated by negative anomalies over mid-high latitudes of Asian, and then gradually one trough and one ridge develop, with the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) extending further westward at low latitudes. Type Q_Ⅲ is dominated by two ridges and one trough forms at mid-latitudes, with the WPSH weaker and unremarkable. However, synoptic systems of all three patterns move slowly, and Jianghuai Region is under the control of a relatively low system by the northwest side of WPSH, which is prevail to the heavy rainfall over this region. The jet stream locates to the north of Jianghuai Region with an anomalous divergence over the region at 200 hPa, but the strength of the jet stream is different for different patterns.Finally, the relationship between circulation patterns and related heavy rain are investigated. The circulation fields are estimated using height field analogue method with different leading time from 10 d to 0, and correlation coefficients between these parameters and the observation are considerable high, such as the height of 500 hPa, meridional wind component at 850 hPa, relative humidity at 700 hPa, and zonal wind at 200 hPa. Threat scores (TS) of the rainfall for days with daily rainfall more than 25 mm and 50 mm are also checked. TS in independent experiments of different lead time from 1 d to 10 d are higher than those from ECMWF and T639 models for events with daily rainfall more than 25 mm.
- Jianghuai Region;
- heavy rainfall patterns;
- circulation evolution;
- middle range forecast

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References(36)

Figures and Tables

图 1 江淮地区强降水个例EOF展开的前3个模态

Fig. 1 Three lead EOF modes of heavy rainfall in Jianghuai Region

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图 2 江淮地区根据时间系数得到的典型模态的降水分布

Fig. 2 Composite rainfall of typical mode patterns from EOF time coefficient in Jianghuai Region

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图 3 江淮地区强降水的客观分型

Fig. 3 Frame of pattern classification for heavy rainfall in Jianghuai Region

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图 4 江淮地区强降水的降水分布

Fig. 4 Composite heavy rainfall patterns in Jianghuai Region

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图 5 Q_Ⅰ型强降水500 hPa高度场(等值线，单位：gpm)合成

(填色表示高度场距平，打点区表示达到0.1显著性水平)

Fig. 5 Composite heights at 500 hPa of heavy rainfall Q_Ⅰ(the contour, unit:gpm)

(the shaded denotes height anomaly, the dotted denotes passing the test of 0.1 level)

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图 6 Q_Ⅰ型强降水200 hPa平均纬向风场及其散度距平合成

(箭头表示平均纬向风大于30 m·s^-1，填色为散度距平)

Fig. 6 Composite zonal wind and divergence anomaly at 200 hPa of heavy rainfall Q_Ⅰ

(the arrow denotes the mean zonal wind more than 30 m·s^-1, the shaded denotes divergence anomaly)

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图 7 Q_Ⅱ型强降水500 hPa高度场(等值线，单位：gpm)合成

(填色区为高度场距平，打点区表示达到0.1显著性水平)

Fig. 7 Composite heights at 500 hPa of heavy rainfall Q_Ⅱ(the contour, unit:gpm)

(the shaded denotes height anomaly, the dotted denotes passing the test of 0.1 level)

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图 8 Q_Ⅱ型强降水200 hPa平均纬向风场及散度距平合成

(箭头表示平均纬向风大于30 m·s^-1，填色表示散度距平)

Fig. 8 Composite mean zonal wind and divergence anomaly at 200 hPa of heavy rainfall Q_Ⅱ

(the arrow denotes the mean zonal wind more than 30 m·s^-1, the shaded denotes divergence anomaly)

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图 9 Q_Ⅲ型强降水500 hPa高度场(等值线，单位：gpm)合成

(填色表示高度场距平，打点区表示达到0.1显著性水平)

Fig. 9 Composite heights at 500 hPa of heavy rainfall Q_Ⅲ(the contour, unit:gpm)

(the shaded denotes height anomaly, the dotted denotes passing the test of 0.1 level)

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图 10 Q_Ⅲ型强降水200 hPa纬向风场及散度距平合成

(箭头表示平均纬向风大于30 m·s^-1，填色表示散度距平)

Fig. 10 Composite mean zonal wind and divergence anomaly at 200 hPa of heavy rainfall Q_Ⅲ

(the arrow denotes the mean zonal wind more than 30 m·s^-1, the shaded denotes divergence anomaly)

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图 11 Q_Ⅰ，Q_Ⅱ，Q_Ⅲ型强降水前期所得的强降水当日环流场与强降水发生日环流实况相关系数

Fig. 11 Correlation coefficients between calculated and in-situ circulations of heavy rainfall patterns of Q_Ⅰ, Q_Ⅱ, Q_Ⅲ

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图 12 2016年6—8月不同时效预报的日降水量大于25 mm和50 mm强降水的TS评分

Fig. 12 Threat score of the predicted heavy rainfall from Jun to Aug in 2016 for days with daily rainfall lager than 25 mm and 50 mm

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