Establishment and Verification of Single Threshold Temperature Model for Partition Precipitation Phase Separation

Liu Yulian; Ren Guoyu; Sun Xiubao

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20180406

Vol.29, NO.4, 2018

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Liu Yulian, Ren Guoyu, Sun Xiubao. Establishment and verification of single threshold temperature model for partition precipitation phase separation. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2018, 29(4): 449-459. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20180406.

Citation:

Liu Yulian, Ren Guoyu, Sun Xiubao. Establishment and verification of single threshold temperature model for partition precipitation phase separation. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2018, 29(4): 449-459. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20180406.

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Establishment and Verification of Single Threshold Temperature Model for Partition Precipitation Phase Separation

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20180406

Liu Yulian^1,2,
Ren Guoyu^{2,3
,
,},
Sun Xiubao³

1.
Heilongjiang Provincial Climate Center, Harbin 150030
2.
Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Science, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074
3.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, CMA, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2017-12-20
Rev Recd Date: 2018-05-11
Publish Date: 2018-07-31

Abstract

Abstract

Precipitation is an important parameter to characterize climate characteristics and climate change in a region. It is a key link in global water cycle and energy cycle. Under the same rainfall conditions, effects of different-phase precipitation in the earth's surface system are significantly different. The social and economic impacts produced by them also have significant differences. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to distinguish and recognize snowfall characteristics, their anomalies and causes. In addition, when monitoring and studying the global climate change background and long-term changes of the extreme precipitation events above the sub-continental scale, it is also necessary to distinguish rainfall and snowfall information from historical precipitation data.A statistical model with single temperature thresholds is established for separating cold season rainfall and snowfall with independent samples of different climate zones to the north of the Yangtze River in mainland China (north of 30°N). The applicability of the model is tested, and the deviation of the model on sleet recognizing is analyzed.Results show that correlations between estimated temperature thresholds and actual thresholds pass the significance level test for three areas, i.e., Eastern Monsoon Region, Northwest Arid Region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Models for three areas can well simulate the temperature thresholds, the range and regional characteristics. Simulations in East Monsoon Region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are better than those in Northwest Arid Region. Among all of the stations in three regions, stations with absolute bias of the simulated threshold temperature less than 1℃ account for more than 74%, and stations with standard deviation biases between -0.5-0.5℃ account for 77%, and those between -1.0-1.0℃ account for 90%. When the daily mean temperature gets lower than thresholds, ratios of sleet days and precipitation compared to snow days and actual precipitation are slightly smaller in the north and larger in the south. In the south of Eastern Monsoon Region, ratios are more than 1. Statistical models can also be used to determine the distribution of the ratio in different areas.Climate types to north of the Yangtze River include temperate monsoon climate, temperate continental climate, and high-cold climate. Results of the independent sample test in three climatic zones indicate that applying this model to estimate the threshold temperature of precipitation phase in sub-continental snow-rich areas, although still limited, is basically feasible.
- precipitation;
- phase;
- separation;
- single threshold temperature;
- statistical mode

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References(30)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Division and station distribution in northern China

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Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of precipitation phase temperature T_d in Eastern Monsoon Region

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Fig. 3 The relationship of difference between T_p1 and T_d to T_d in Eastern Monsoon Region

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Fig. 4 Deviation distribution of snow day number(a) and snowfall(b) according to T_p1 in Eastern Monsoon Region

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Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of difference between the estimated temperature threshold of three climatic zones with independent sample fitting and T_d

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图 6 分区独立样本估算检验

(a)估算临界气温，(b)估算雪日雪量偏差，(c)偏差百分率统计

Fig. 6 Partition independent sample fitting test

(a)fitted temperature threshold, (b)fitted snow day number and snowfall deviation, (c)deviation percentage statistics

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图 7 分区样本估算临界气温界定的雪日和雪量偏差百分率分布

(a)东部季风区估算雪日偏差，(b)西北干燥区估算雪日偏差，(c)青藏高原区估算雪日偏差，(d)东部季风区估算雪量偏差，(e)西北干燥区估算雪量偏差，(f)青藏高原区估算雪量偏差

Fig. 7 Distribution of the deviation percentage of snow day number and snowfall defined by the temperature threshold of partition sample estimation

(a)estimated snow day number deviation in Eastern Monsoon Region, (b)estimated snow day number deviation in Northwest Arid Area, (c)estimated snow day number deviation in the Tibetan Plateau Region, (d)estimated snowfall deviation in Eastern Monsoon Region, (e)estimated snowfall deviation in Northwest Arid Region, (f)estimated snowfall deviation in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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图 8 低于T_d的雨夹雪日数(a)和降水量(b)与实际降雪日数和降雪量的比率空间分布

(图中红粗线为100%等值线)

Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of the ratio of sleet day number(a) and sleet-fall(b) below T_d in the actual snow day number and snowfall

(the red thick line denotes 100%)

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Table 1 The estimated temperature threshold of the partitioned independent sample fitting

区域	要素项	最小值/℃	最大值/℃	平均值/℃	偏差绝对值低于0.5℃气象站占比/%	偏差绝对值低于1℃气象站占比/%	与T_d相关系数
东部季风区	T_p1	-0.20	6.34				0.78
东部季风区	T_p1-T_d	-1.38	4.34	0.22	61	86	-0.31
西北干燥区	T_p2	-3.90	6.59				0.86
西北干燥区	T_p2-T_d	-2.90	2.57	-0.33	43	74	0.05
青藏高原区	T_p3	0.19	6.43				0.75
青藏高原区	T_p3-T_d	-2.53	4.16	0.18	44	76	-0.23

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Table 2 The estimated snowfall day number and snowfall deviation of the partitioned independent sample fitting

区域	要素项	最小值/%	最大值/%	平均值/%	偏差绝对值低于10%气象站占比/%	偏差绝对值低于20%气象站占比/%	与T_d相关系数
东部季风区	雪日偏差	-14	15	1	95	100	-0.34
东部季风区	雪量偏差	-15	27	2	90	99	-0.28
西北干燥区	雪日偏差	-61	22	-3	85	94	0.18
西北干燥区	雪量偏差	-65	46	-2	84	94	0.23
青藏高原区	雪日偏差	-8	39	3	86	94	-0.29
青藏高原区	雪量偏差	-13	57	5	78	90	-0.24

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