Indicators of Chilling Damage for Spring Maize Based on Heat Index in Northeast China

Wang Peijuan; Huo Zhiguo; Yang Jianying; Wu Xia

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20190102

Vol.30, No.1,

January 2019

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Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2019 > 30(1): 13-24. > DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190102

Wang Peijuan, Huo Zhiguo, Yang Jianying, et al. Indicators of chilling damage for spring maize based on heat index in Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(1): 13-24. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190102.

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Indicators of Chilling Damage for Spring Maize Based on Heat Index in Northeast China

1.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecast, Early-Warning and Assessment, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
3.
Heilongjiang Meteorological Service Center, Harbin 150030

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Abstract

Abstract

Chilling damage is one of the most destructive disasters for spring maize in Northeast China (Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and Liaoning Province). Proper indicators of spring maize chilling damage are important for understanding the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of disaster, dynamic monitoring, early warning, and conducting risk assessment. Therefore, it is of great scientific significance for the safe production and reasonable spatial planting of spring maize in China. Daily time series of air temperature during the past 55 years (1961-2015) at 82 meteorological stations, phenology at different developmental stages of spring maize from 1981 to 2013 at 61 agro-meteorological stations, and historical chilling damage records during the past 55 years (1961-2015) are jointly used to establish chilling damage indicators of spring maize at different developmental stages. The heat index with significant biological basis is selected as a factor, and its average at different developmental stages of spring maize is calculated based on three physiological temperatures. And then, 15 heat index sets of spring maize chilling damage samples collected from historical disaster records are built in the context of the combinations of five developmental stages of spring maize (seedling to clover, clover to jointing, jointing to blossom, blossom to milk, milk to physiological maturity) and three chilling damage levels (light, moderate, and severe). Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test method is used in checking the best distribution fitting functions of the heat index sets, and 15 normal distribution functions are established by comparing three fitting functions, including normal distribution, exponent distribution, and evenly distribution. Each critical threshold of spring maize chilling damage levels at different developmental stages is determined by using the upper limit of 95% confidence interval. The rationality of the spring maize chilling damage indicator is validated by using 25 independent samples. Results show that the verification based on the spring maize chilling damage level indicators is detected to be basically consistent with historical records, with 80% assessment being thoroughly consistent and all the errors of validation samples being within one level. Meanwhile, consistent rates of chilling damage indicators for three chilling damage levels are all above 75%.
- heat index,
- chilling damage indicator,
- spring maize,
- different developmental stages

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Figures and Tables

Fig 1. The spatial distribution of meteorological stations and agro-meteorological stations in the target area

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Fig 2. Daily heat index difference for spring maize with chilling or chilling-free damages at three typical stations in Northeast China

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Fig 3. Accumulated heat index difference for spring maize with chilling or chilling-free damages at three typical stations in Northeast China

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Table 1 Three physiological temperatures at different developmental stages of spring maize under high-yielding conditions

生育时段	生育阶段	简称	T₁/℃	T₂/℃	T₀/℃
营养生长期	出苗-三叶期	S1	8.0	27.0	20.0
营养生长期	三叶-拔节期	S2	11.5	30.0	24.5
营养生长与生殖生长并进期	拔节-开花期	S3	14.0	33.0	27.0
生殖生长期	开花-乳熟期	S4	14.0	32.0	25.5
生殖生长期	乳熟-成熟期	S5	10.0	30.0	19.0

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Table 2 The information of chilling damage samples at different developmental stages of spring maize

生育阶段	轻度冷害样本量		中度冷害样本量		重度冷害样本量
生育阶段	指标构建	指标验证	指标构建	指标验证	指标构建	指标验证
S1	11	2	17	1	37	2
S2	31	1	24	3	26	3
S3	11	1	8	1	14	1
S4	40	3	50	1	20	1
S5	36	2	27	1	15	2

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Table 3 The information of chilling damage samples for spring maize in different decades

时段	指标构建样本			指标验证样本
时段	轻度冷害	中度冷害	重度冷害	指标验证样本
1961—1970年	27	1	18	5
1971—1980年	54	12	61	5
1981—1990年	20	42	18	8
1991—2000年	18	23	14	2
2001—2015年	10	18	1	5

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Table 4 Statistical characteristics of average heat index for modeling samples of spring maize chilling damage

生育阶段	冷害等级	样本量	平均热量指数	标准差	最小热量指数	最大热量指数
	轻度	11	64.08	10.46	36.72	72.19
S1	中度	17	58.42	10.43	39.18	73.47
	重度	37	51.78	11.81	25.25	75.48
	轻度	31	67.06	5.95	56.98	77.05
S2	中度	24	61.42	8.08	41.82	80.10
	重度	26	52.12	11.44	27.35	72.04
	轻度	11	73.11	4.18	66.59	81.76
S3	中度	8	64.76	4.71	56.01	70.26
	重度	14	57.53	7.66	43.69	70.97
	轻度	40	71.56	10.09	50.79	85.57
S4	中度	20	64.60	8.20	50.62	76.60
	重度	20	59.10	8.62	42.12	69.97
	轻度	36	69.29	8.38	50.90	86.63
S5	中度	27	64.13	6.40	50.18	75.58
	重度	15	58.21	7.06	46.64	76.80

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Table 5 K-S test results of heat index for chilling damage samples of spring maize based on different distribution functions

生育阶段	冷害等级	显著性检验
生育阶段	冷害等级	正态分布	均匀分布	指数分布
	轻度	0.628	0.008	0.009
S1	中度	0.977	0.798	0.001
	重度	0.633	0.267	0.000
	轻度	0.926	0.990	0.000
S2	中度	0.895	0.096	0.000
	重度	0.981	0.185	0.000
	轻度	0.947	0.700	0.001
S3	中度	0.888	0.440	0.009
	重度	0.760	0.953	0.001
	轻度	0.603	0.076	0.000
S4	中度	0.416	0.307	0.000
	重度	0.623	0.204	0.000
	轻度	0.912	0.226	0.000
S5	中度	0.829	0.386	0.000
	重度	0.790	0.026	0.000

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Table 6 95% confidence ranges of heat index at different developmental stages for spring maize at different chilling damage levels

生育阶段	轻度冷害	中度冷害	重度冷害
S1	57.1~71.1	53.1~63.8	47.8~55.7
S2	64.9~69.2	58.0~64.8	47.5~56.7
S3	70.3~75.9	60.8~68.7	53.1~61.9
S4	68.3~74.8	60.8~68.4	55.1~63.1
S5	66.5~72.1	61.6~66.7	54.3~62.1

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Table 7 Chilling damage indicators for spring maize at different developmental stages based on heat index

生育阶段	重度冷害	中度冷害	轻度冷害	无冷害
S1	[0, 55.5]	(55.5, 64.0]	(64.0, 71.0]	(71.0, 100]
S2	[0, 56.5]	(56.5, 65.0]	(65.0, 69.0]	(69.0, 100]
S3	[0, 62.0]	(62.0, 68.5]	(68.5, 76.0]	(76.0, 100]
S4	[0, 63.0]	(63.0, 68.5]	(68.5, 75.0]	(75.0, 100]
S5	[0, 62.0]	(62.0, 66.5]	(66.5, 72.0]	(72.0, 100]

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Table 8 Validation of chilling damage indicators for spring maize in Northeast China

生育阶段	轻度冷害		中度冷害		重度冷害		准确率/%
生育阶段	总样本量	验证正确量	总样本量	验证正确量	总样本量	验证正确量	准确率/%
S1	2	2	1	1	2	0	60.0
S2	1	1	3	3	3	3	100.0
S3	1	1	1	1	1	1	100.0
S4	3	2	1	1	1	1	80.0
S5	2	1	1	0	2	2	60.0

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Table 9 Day ratios with chilling or chilling-free damages for spring maize at different developmental stages of three typical stations in Northeast China (unit:%)

站点	生育阶段	生育阶段日数	2007年			1969年
站点	生育阶段	生育阶段日数	轻度	中度	重度	轻度	中度	重度
	S1	8 d	25.0	25.0	12.5	12.5	0.0	87.5
	S2	37 d	2.7	0.0	8.1	8.1	13.5	35.1
海伦	S3	21 d	14.3	0.0	19.0	23.8	14.3	9.5
	S4	29 d	6.9	6.9	3.4	10.3	27.6	27.6
	S5	28 d	3.6	3.6	7.1	0.0	7.1	32.1
	S1	9 d	0.0	11.1	22.2	22.2	22.2	33.3
	S2	38 d	5.3	7.9	10.5	7.9	5.3	42.1
扶余	S3	24 d	8.3	8.3	4.2	4.2	0.0	8.3
	S4	26 d	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.7	0.0	3.8
	S5	29 d	0.0	3.4	0.0	6.9	0.0	13.8
	S1	8 d	0.0	0.0	0.0	25.0	0.0	50.0
	S2	39 d	7.7	7.7	2.6	7.7	2.6	35.9
抚顺	S3	25 d	24.0	4.0	4.0	8.0	4.0	4.0
	S4	28 d	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	S5	26 d	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8	0.0	3.8

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Article views: 5485 PDF downloads: 242 Cited by: 34

Received : 2018-09-04
Accepted : 2018-10-11
Published : 2019-01-30

Indicators of Chilling Damage for Spring Maize Based on Heat Index in Northeast China