Vol.30, NO.1, 2019
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Applied Meteorological Science  > 2019  >  30(1): 13-24
Wang Peijuan, Huo Zhiguo, Yang Jianying, et al. Indicators of chilling damage for spring maize based on heat index in Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(1): 13-24. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190102.
Citation: Wang Peijuan, Huo Zhiguo, Yang Jianying, et al. Indicators of chilling damage for spring maize based on heat index in Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(1): 13-24. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190102.
shu

Indicators of Chilling Damage for Spring Maize Based on Heat Index in Northeast China

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190102
  • 1.

    Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

  • 2.

    Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecast, Early-Warning and Assessment, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044

  • 3.

    Heilongjiang Meteorological Service Center, Harbin 150030

  • Received Date: 2018-09-05
  • Rev Recd Date: 2018-10-12
  • Publish Date: 2019-01-31
    Abstract
  • Chilling damage is one of the most destructive disasters for spring maize in Northeast China (Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and Liaoning Province). Proper indicators of spring maize chilling damage are important for understanding the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of disaster, dynamic monitoring, early warning, and conducting risk assessment. Therefore, it is of great scientific significance for the safe production and reasonable spatial planting of spring maize in China. Daily time series of air temperature during the past 55 years (1961-2015) at 82 meteorological stations, phenology at different developmental stages of spring maize from 1981 to 2013 at 61 agro-meteorological stations, and historical chilling damage records during the past 55 years (1961-2015) are jointly used to establish chilling damage indicators of spring maize at different developmental stages. The heat index with significant biological basis is selected as a factor, and its average at different developmental stages of spring maize is calculated based on three physiological temperatures. And then, 15 heat index sets of spring maize chilling damage samples collected from historical disaster records are built in the context of the combinations of five developmental stages of spring maize (seedling to clover, clover to jointing, jointing to blossom, blossom to milk, milk to physiological maturity) and three chilling damage levels (light, moderate, and severe). Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test method is used in checking the best distribution fitting functions of the heat index sets, and 15 normal distribution functions are established by comparing three fitting functions, including normal distribution, exponent distribution, and evenly distribution. Each critical threshold of spring maize chilling damage levels at different developmental stages is determined by using the upper limit of 95% confidence interval. The rationality of the spring maize chilling damage indicator is validated by using 25 independent samples. Results show that the verification based on the spring maize chilling damage level indicators is detected to be basically consistent with historical records, with 80% assessment being thoroughly consistent and all the errors of validation samples being within one level. Meanwhile, consistent rates of chilling damage indicators for three chilling damage levels are all above 75%.
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  • Fig. 1  The spatial distribution of meteorological stations and agro-meteorological stations in the target area

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    Fig. 2  Daily heat index difference for spring maize with chilling or chilling-free damages at three typical stations in Northeast China

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    Fig. 3  Accumulated heat index difference for spring maize with chilling or chilling-free damages at three typical stations in Northeast China

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    Table  1  Three physiological temperatures at different developmental stages of spring maize under high-yielding conditions

    生育时段 生育阶段 简称 T1/℃ T2/℃ T0/℃
    营养生长期 出苗-三叶期 S1 8.0 27.0 20.0
    三叶-拔节期 S2 11.5 30.0 24.5
    营养生长与生殖生长并进期 拔节-开花期 S3 14.0 33.0 27.0
    生殖生长期 开花-乳熟期 S4 14.0 32.0 25.5
    乳熟-成熟期 S5 10.0 30.0 19.0
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    Table  2  The information of chilling damage samples at different developmental stages of spring maize

    生育阶段 轻度冷害样本量 中度冷害样本量 重度冷害样本量
    指标构建 指标验证 指标构建 指标验证 指标构建 指标验证
    S1 11 2 17 1 37 2
    S2 31 1 24 3 26 3
    S3 11 1 8 1 14 1
    S4 40 3 50 1 20 1
    S5 36 2 27 1 15 2
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    Table  3  The information of chilling damage samples for spring maize in different decades

    时段 指标构建样本 指标验证样本
    轻度冷害 中度冷害 重度冷害
    1961—1970年 27 1 18 5
    1971—1980年 54 12 61 5
    1981—1990年 20 42 18 8
    1991—2000年 18 23 14 2
    2001—2015年 10 18 1 5
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    Table  4  Statistical characteristics of average heat index for modeling samples of spring maize chilling damage

    生育阶段 冷害等级 样本量 平均热量指数 标准差 最小热量指数 最大热量指数
    轻度 11 64.08 10.46 36.72 72.19
    S1 中度 17 58.42 10.43 39.18 73.47
    重度 37 51.78 11.81 25.25 75.48
    轻度 31 67.06 5.95 56.98 77.05
    S2 中度 24 61.42 8.08 41.82 80.10
    重度 26 52.12 11.44 27.35 72.04
    轻度 11 73.11 4.18 66.59 81.76
    S3 中度 8 64.76 4.71 56.01 70.26
    重度 14 57.53 7.66 43.69 70.97
    轻度 40 71.56 10.09 50.79 85.57
    S4 中度 20 64.60 8.20 50.62 76.60
    重度 20 59.10 8.62 42.12 69.97
    轻度 36 69.29 8.38 50.90 86.63
    S5 中度 27 64.13 6.40 50.18 75.58
    重度 15 58.21 7.06 46.64 76.80
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    Table  5  K-S test results of heat index for chilling damage samples of spring maize based on different distribution functions

    生育阶段 冷害等级 显著性检验
    正态分布 均匀分布 指数分布
    轻度 0.628 0.008 0.009
    S1 中度 0.977 0.798 0.001
    重度 0.633 0.267 0.000
    轻度 0.926 0.990 0.000
    S2 中度 0.895 0.096 0.000
    重度 0.981 0.185 0.000
    轻度 0.947 0.700 0.001
    S3 中度 0.888 0.440 0.009
    重度 0.760 0.953 0.001
    轻度 0.603 0.076 0.000
    S4 中度 0.416 0.307 0.000
    重度 0.623 0.204 0.000
    轻度 0.912 0.226 0.000
    S5 中度 0.829 0.386 0.000
    重度 0.790 0.026 0.000
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    Table  6  95% confidence ranges of heat index at different developmental stages for spring maize at different chilling damage levels

    生育阶段 轻度冷害 中度冷害 重度冷害
    S1 57.1~71.1 53.1~63.8 47.8~55.7
    S2 64.9~69.2 58.0~64.8 47.5~56.7
    S3 70.3~75.9 60.8~68.7 53.1~61.9
    S4 68.3~74.8 60.8~68.4 55.1~63.1
    S5 66.5~72.1 61.6~66.7 54.3~62.1
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    Table  7  Chilling damage indicators for spring maize at different developmental stages based on heat index

    生育阶段 重度冷害 中度冷害 轻度冷害 无冷害
    S1 [0, 55.5] (55.5, 64.0] (64.0, 71.0] (71.0, 100]
    S2 [0, 56.5] (56.5, 65.0] (65.0, 69.0] (69.0, 100]
    S3 [0, 62.0] (62.0, 68.5] (68.5, 76.0] (76.0, 100]
    S4 [0, 63.0] (63.0, 68.5] (68.5, 75.0] (75.0, 100]
    S5 [0, 62.0] (62.0, 66.5] (66.5, 72.0] (72.0, 100]
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    Table  8  Validation of chilling damage indicators for spring maize in Northeast China

    生育阶段 轻度冷害 中度冷害 重度冷害 准确率/%
    总样本量 验证正确量 总样本量 验证正确量 总样本量 验证正确量
    S1 2 2 1 1 2 0 60.0
    S2 1 1 3 3 3 3 100.0
    S3 1 1 1 1 1 1 100.0
    S4 3 2 1 1 1 1 80.0
    S5 2 1 1 0 2 2 60.0
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    Table  9  Day ratios with chilling or chilling-free damages for spring maize at different developmental stages of three typical stations in Northeast China (unit:%)

    站点 生育阶段 生育阶段日数 2007年 1969年
    轻度 中度 重度 轻度 中度 重度
    S1 8 d 25.0 25.0 12.5 12.5 0.0 87.5
    S2 37 d 2.7 0.0 8.1 8.1 13.5 35.1
    海伦 S3 21 d 14.3 0.0 19.0 23.8 14.3 9.5
    S4 29 d 6.9 6.9 3.4 10.3 27.6 27.6
    S5 28 d 3.6 3.6 7.1 0.0 7.1 32.1
    S1 9 d 0.0 11.1 22.2 22.2 22.2 33.3
    S2 38 d 5.3 7.9 10.5 7.9 5.3 42.1
    扶余 S3 24 d 8.3 8.3 4.2 4.2 0.0 8.3
    S4 26 d 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0 3.8
    S5 29 d 0.0 3.4 0.0 6.9 0.0 13.8
    S1 8 d 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 50.0
    S2 39 d 7.7 7.7 2.6 7.7 2.6 35.9
    抚顺 S3 25 d 24.0 4.0 4.0 8.0 4.0 4.0
    S4 28 d 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
    S5 26 d 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 3.8
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    • Received : 2018-09-05
    • Accepted : 2018-10-12
    • Published : 2019-01-31
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