Vol.30, NO.2, 2019
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Article Navigation >  Journal of Applied Meteorological Science  > 2019  >  30(2): 142-153
Chen Yueli, Zhao Linna, Wang Ying, et al. Review on forecast methods of rainfall-induced geo-hazards. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(2): 142-153. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190202.
Citation: Chen Yueli, Zhao Linna, Wang Ying, et al. Review on forecast methods of rainfall-induced geo-hazards. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(2): 142-153. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190202.
shu

Review on Forecast Methods of Rainfall-induced Geo-hazards

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190202
  • 1.

    Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

  • 2.

    China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038

  • Received Date: 2018-11-12
  • Rev Recd Date: 2019-01-18
  • Publish Date: 2019-03-31
    Abstract
  • The classification of geological hazards is very complicated for there being different methods according to different standards. Factors triggering geological hazards are divided into two categories:Internal and external. Internal factors mainly include geological and geomorphological factors, and external factors include precipitation, earthquake, volcanic eruption and human activities. The majority of the geological hazards are triggered by precipitation, especially heavy rainfall.Geological hazards including the debris flow, landslide and collapse triggered by rainfall are discussed. Geological hazard forecast plays a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective method to mitigate disaster damage. The geo-hazard forecasting mainly refers to the temporal and spatial warning in specific areas. Based on reviewing literatures related to rainfall-induced geological hazard prediction, related concepts are formulated, and previous researches are sorted and summarized. Afterwards, characteristics and application of the rainfall-induced geo-hazard prediction models are summarized, including the implicit statistics model, the explicit statistics model and the dynamic models. At present, the first-generation implicit statistic models considering precipitation characteristics are further developed into a second-generation explicit statistic models which consider rainfall factor, geology and geomorphology factors. Statistic models are widely used in the operational forecasting for their conciseness and convenience. However, the accuracy of the spatial and temporal simulating is limited because models can't simulate the physical mechanism of geological hazards. Geo-hazard early warning systems based on dynamic model can provide a better forecasting product with higher spatial and temporal resolution. The dynamic model is gradually developed from a slope stability model based on the theory of vertical infiltration to a coupled hydrological-geotechnical model.The geo-hazard forecasting model is the key of the early warning system. Lots of rainfall-induced geo-hazard early warning systems based on the statistic model have been set up in China. Meteorological models are used to forecast the rainfall in order to issue a warning with a given lead time. A complete geological hazards forecasting chain include the rainfall predicting, the disaster model, model results displaying, and the early warning releasing. The research foci of geological hazard forecasting have gradually expanded from the prediction model to the input of multi-source precipitation data, the display and release of early warning. Based on previous literature reviews and analysis, the coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework combined with multi-source forecasting precipitation data as an important direction for future development can be considered a useful geo-hazard risk mitigation measure to employ over widespread areas.
    • FullText(HTML)
    References(105)

  • Fig. 1  Related articles about geological hazard forcast methods based on China National Knowledge Infrastructure

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 2  Geological hazard early warning systems all over the world except China(from Reference [3])

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 3  Illustration of the early warning system of regional rainfall-induced geo-hazards

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 4  Regions established geological hazard prediction system in China based on open data(the shaded)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Table  1  Summary of geological hazard early warning systems in China

    预报区域 地质灾害类型 模型因子 降雨特征阈值 预警能力
    河北[98] 地质灾害 河北省山区地质灾害易发区分布图，1 h及3 h最大雨量，出现强降雨(1 h雨量大于20 mm)时多普勒天气雷达回波强度、回波顶高和垂直液态含水量 预警空间分辨率有待提高；预警等级分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区
    北京[101] 泥石流 以期建成单体化精确预报
    江苏[94] 滑坡、崩塌 易发性(山体坡度、地层岩性、斜坡结构、松散覆盖层厚度、人类活动特征，滑坡和崩塌发生密度)，预报雨量，有效雨量 前5 d有效雨量、24 h预报雨量 预警空间分辨率有待提高；预警等级分为有一定风险、风险较高、高和很高
    浙江[40, 92] 滑坡 当日雨量，前1 d雨量，有效雨量，降雨持续时间，地质因子 预警空间分辨率有待提高；预警等级分为不易发生地质灾害、有可能发生、易发生和极易发生
    滑坡、泥石流 雨强-历时阈值；1 h，3 h，6 h，12 h和24 h累积雨量 预警空间分辨率有待提高
    湖北[99] 滑坡 前期雨量、气象台预报雨量 雨量-历时曲线 预警空间分辨率有待提高
    四川[50] 滑坡 滑坡危害危险性(坡度、地形起伏度、植被覆盖度、年平均雨量、地质岩性、地震烈度)、当日降雨概率化值、前1 d降雨概率化值、前2 d降雨概率化值 预警空间分辨率有待提高；预警等级分为一级预警、二级预警、三级预警(危险度最低)和无
    贵州[43] 地质灾害 地质灾害易发性(地震、地层、断层、土地利用、坡度、距河流远近、距主要道路远近)，有效雨量 临界有效雨量 预警空间分辨率有待提高；预警等级分为一级(危险度最低)、二级和三级
    云南[104] 滑坡、泥石流 地理环境因子、临界雨量、前10 d中雨日数、临近24 h雨强 预警空间分辨率有待提高；预警等级分为可能性很小、可能性较小、可能性较大、可能性大和可能性很大
    广东[105] 地质灾害 地质环境背景、前期雨量、3 h预报雨量、地质灾害群测群防点资料 预警空间分辨率有待提高
    福建[41] 滑坡 雨强-有效降雨日数 预警空间分辨率有待提高
    新疆[49] 崩塌、滑坡、泥石流和地面塌陷 地质环境指标(海拔高度、斜坡坡向、地层岩性、地震动峰值加速度、水系密度、年平均雨量)、预报当日雨量、7 d有效雨量 预警空间分辨率有待提高；预警等级分为蓝色(危险度最低)、黄色、橙色和红色
    注：预报区域标注文献表示资料来源。
    DownLoad: Download CSV
  • [1]
    贾朋群, 张萌, 许小峰.气象与滑坡研究国际进展评介.气象科技进展, 2013, 3(增刊Ⅰ):3-22. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxkjjz2013z1002
    [2]
    刘艳辉, 刘传正, 温铭生, 等.中国地质灾害气象预警模型研究.工程地质学报, 2015, 23(4):738-746. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/gcdzxb201504028
    [3]
    Piciullo L, Calvello M, Cepeda J M.Territorial early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides.Earth-Science Reviews, 2018, 179:228-247. doi:  10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.02.013
    [4]
    Sidle R C, Bogaard T A.Dynamic earth system and ecological controls of rainfall-initiated landslides.Earth-Science Reviews, 2016, 159:275-291. doi:  10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.05.013
    [5]
    Reichenbach P, Rossi M, Malamud B D, et al.A review of statistically-based landslide susceptibility models.Earth-Science Reviews, 2018, 180:60-91. doi:  10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.03.001
    [6]
    崔鹏.中国山地灾害研究进展与未来应关注的科学问题.地理科学进展, 2014, 33(2):145-152. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/dlkxjz201402001
    [7]
    马文瀚, 陈建平.突发性地质灾害气象预警预报研究综述.地质灾害与环境保护, 2007, 18(1):6-9. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1006-4362.2007.01.002
    [8]
    唐亚明, 张茂省, 薛强, 等.滑坡监测预警国内外研究现状及评述.地质论评, 2012, 58(3):533-541. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.0371-5736.2012.03.014
    [9]
    梁润娥, 李中社, 苗高建, 等.区域地质灾害气象预警模型研究现状与展望.安全与环境工程, 2013, 20(1):30-35. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1671-1556.2013.01.07t
    [10]
    杨阳, 徐海峰, 何勇军, 等.降雨山洪引发滑坡预报预警研究现状及评述.人民黄河, 2014, 36(8):43-46. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2014.08.014
    [11]
    Varnes D J.Slope Movement Types and Processed.Washington D C: Transportation Research Board, 1978.
    [12]
    Guzzetti F, Reichenbach P, Cardinali M, et al.Probabilistic landslide hazard assessment at the basin scale.Geomorphology, 2005, 72(1):272-299. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X05001911
    [13]
    Gaprindashvili G, Westen C J.Generation of a national landslide hazard and risk map for the country of Georgia.Natural Hazards, 2015, 80(1):69-101. doi:  10.1007/s11069-015-1958-5
    [14]
    Liu C, Li W, Wu H, et al.Susceptibility evaluation and mapping of China's landslides based on multi-source data.Natural Hazards, 2013, 69(3):1477-1495. doi:  10.1007/s11069-013-0759-y
    [15]
    Park H J, Lee J H, Woo I.Assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility using a GIS-based probabilistic approach.Engineering Geology, 2013, 161:1-15. doi:  10.1016/j.enggeo.2013.04.011
    [16]
    Peng L, Niu R, Huang B, et al.Landslide susceptibility mapping based on rough set theory and support vector machines:A case of the Three Gorges area, China.Geomorphology, 2014, 204:287-301. doi:  10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.08.013
    [17]
    Sabatakakis N, Koukis G, Vassiliades E, et al.Landslide susceptibility zonation in Greece.Natural Hazards, 2012, 65(1):523-543. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/resolve/reference/XREF?id=10.1007/s11069-012-0381-4
    [18]
    刘仁志, 倪晋仁.中国滑坡崩塌危险性区划.应用基础与工程科学学报, 2005(1):9-18. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1005-0930.2005.01.002
    [19]
    Zhang Z, Yang F, Chen H, et al.GIS-based landslide susceptibility analysis using frequency ratio and evidential belief function models.Environmental Earth Sciences, 2016, 75(11):1-12. doi:  10.1007/s12665-016-5732-0
    [20]
    殷坤龙, 陈丽霞, 张桂荣.区域滑坡灾害预测预警与风险评价.地学前缘, 2007, 14(6):85-97. doi:  10.3321/j.issn:1005-2321.2007.06.011
    [21]
    秦四清, 张倬元, 黄润秋.滑坡灾害预报的非线性动力学方法.水文地质工程地质, 1993(5):1-4. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-SWDG199305000.htm
    [22]
    张倬元, 秦四清.滑坡灾害可预报时间尺度问题探讨.中国地质灾害与防治学报, 1994, 5(1):17-22. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGDH401.003.htm
    [23]
    吕终亮, 白新萍, 薛峰.基于WebGIS的气象服务产品制作系统及关键技术.应用气象学报, 2018, 29(1):120-128. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20180111&flag=1
    [24]
    毕宝贵, 代刊, 王毅, 等.定量降水预报技术进展.应用气象学报, 2016, 27(5):534-549. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20160503&flag=1
    [25]
    黄丽萍, 陈德辉, 邓莲堂, 等.GRAPES_Meso V4.0主要技术改进和预报效果检验.应用气象学报, 2017, 28(1):25-37. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20170103&flag=1
    [26]
    沈学顺, 苏勇, 胡江林, 等.GRAPES_GFS全球中期预报系统的研发和业务化.应用气象学报, 2017, 28(1):1-10. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20170101&flag=1
    [27]
    潘留杰, 薛春芳, 张宏芳, 等.两个集合预报系统对秦岭及周边降水预报性能对比.应用气象学报, 2016, 27(6):676-687. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20160604&flag=1
    [28]
    卢新玉, 鸣魏, 王秀琴.TRMM月降水量产品在新疆地区的订正.应用气象学报, 2017, 28(3):379-384. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20170311&flag=1
    [29]
    郭换换, 段明铿, 智协飞, 等.基于TIGGE资料的预报跳跃性特征.应用气象学报, 2016, 27(2):220-229. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20160210&flag=1
    [30]
    翟盘茂, 李蕾, 周佰铨, 等.江淮流域持续性极端降水及预报方法研究进展.应用气象学报, 2016, 27(5):631-640. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20160511&flag=1
    [31]
    Arnone E, Noto L V, Lepore C, et al.Physically-based and distributed approach to analyze rainfall-triggered landslides at watershed scale.Geomorphology, 2011, 133:121-131. doi:  10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.03.019
    [32]
    Liao Z, Hong Y, Adler R, et al.A Physically Based SLIDE Model for Landslide Hazard Assessments Using Remotely Sensed Data Sets.Florida:CRC Press, 2010:807-813.
    [33]
    Montrasio L, Valentino R.A model for triggering mechanisms of shallow landslides.Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2008, 8(5):1149-1159. doi:  10.5194/nhess-8-1149-2008
    [34]
    亓星, 许强, 郑光, 等.降雨诱发顺层岩质及土质滑坡动态预警力学模型.灾害学, 2015, 30(3):38-42. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.03.008
    [35]
    Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M, et al.The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows:An update.Landslides, 2008, 5(1):3-17. doi:  10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1
    [36]
    Baum R L, Coe J A, Godt J W, et al.Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA.Landslides, 2005, 2(4):266-279. doi:  10.1007/s10346-005-0023-y
    [37]
    Caine N.The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows.Geografiska Annaler(Physical Geography), 1980, 62(1-2):23-27. doi:  10.2307-520449/
    [38]
    朱佳敏, 姚素香, 顾小丽, 等.浙江宁波市地质灾害的雨量阈值及预报分析.中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2011, 22(4):85-88. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1003-8035.2011.04.019
    [39]
    麻土华, 李长江, 孙乐玲, 等.浙江地区引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时关系.中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2011, 22(2):20-25. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1003-8035.2011.02.004
    [40]
    鲍其云, 麻土华, 李长江, 等.浙江62个丘陵山区县引发滑坡的降雨强度-历时阈值.科技通报, 2016, 32(5):48-55. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1001-7119.2016.05.010
    [41]
    伍宇明, 兰恒星, 高星, 等.台风暴雨型滑坡降雨阈值曲线研究——以福建地区为例.工程地质学报, 2014, 22(2):255-262. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2014.02.015
    [42]
    沈玲玲, 刘连友, 杨文涛, 等.基于TRMM降雨数据的四川省地质灾害降雨阈值分析.灾害学, 2015, 30(2):220-227. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.02.041
    [43]
    齐大鹏, 汪超, 韩小令, 等.基于加密降水资料的贵州地质灾害概率预报模型.气象科技, 2016, 44(5):788-792. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2016.05.016
    [44]
    刘传正, 温铭生, 唐灿.中国地质灾害气象预警初步研究.地质通报, 2004, 23(4):303-309. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1671-2552.2004.04.001
    [45]
    Li W, Liu C, Scaioni M, et al.Spatio-temporal analysis and simulation on shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China using landslide susceptibility dynamics and rainfall I-D thresholds.Science China(Earth Sciences), 2017, 60(4):720-732. doi:  10.1007/s11430-016-9008-4
    [46]
    唐亚明, 薛强, 李政国, 等.基于单体和区域尺度的黄土滑坡监测预警方法与实例.灾害学, 2015, 30(4):91-106. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2015.04.018
    [47]
    曹洪洋, 王禹, 满兵.基于GIS的区域群发性降雨型滑坡时空预报研究.地理与地理信息科学, 2015, 31(1):106-109. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1672-0504.2015.01.022
    [48]
    黄健敏, 赵国红, 廖芸婧, 等.基于Logistic回归的降雨诱发区域地质灾害易发性区划及预报模型建立——以安徽歙县为例.中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2016, 27(3):98-105. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-ZGDH201603015.htm
    [49]
    李守定, 白亚恒, 姜越, 等.基于内外动力耦合成因理论的新疆地质灾害气象预警显式统计模型.地球科学与环境学报, 2017, 39(2):286-300. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1672-6561.2017.02.013
    [50]
    李云君, 刘志红, 吕远洋, 等.四川省滑坡灾害气象预警模型建立与验证.地球信息科学学报, 2017, 19(7):941-949. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/dqxxkx201707011
    [51]
    刘传正, 刘艳辉, 温铭生, 等.中国地质灾害气象预警实践:2003-2012.中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2015, 26(1):1-8. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/zgdzzhyfzxb201501001
    [52]
    刘艳辉, 温铭生, 苏永超, 等.台风暴雨型地质灾害时空特征及预警效果分析.水文地质工程地质, 2016, 43(5):119-126. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/swdzgcdz201605018
    [53]
    戚国庆, 黄润秋, 许强.降雨及水库诱发滑坡的评价与预测.北京:科学出版社, 2007.
    [54]
    Muntohar A S, Liao H.Rainfall infiltration:Infinite slope model for landslides triggering by rainstorm.Natural Hazards, 2010, 54(3):967-984. doi:  10.1007/s11069-010-9518-5
    [55]
    李宁, 许健聪.无限长均质斜坡降雨入渗解析解.岩土工程学报, 2012, 36(4):2325-2330. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-YTGC201212030.htm
    [56]
    常金源, 包含, 伍法权, 等.降雨条件下浅层滑坡稳定性探讨.岩土力学, 2015, 36(4):995-1001. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/csjsllyj2015223472
    [57]
    Baum R L, Savage W Z, Godt J W.TRIGRS-A FORTRAN Program for Transient Rainfall Infiltration and grid-Based Regional Slope-stability Analysis, Version 2.0: US Geological Survey Open-File Report, 2008.
    [58]
    Baum R L, Godt J W, Savage W Z.Estimating the timing and location of shallow rainfall-induced landslides using a model for transient, unsaturated infiltration.Journal of Geophysical Research(Earth Surface), 2010, 115(F3), F03013. doi:  10.1029/2009JF001321/full
    [59]
    Godt J W, Baum R L, Savage W Z, et al.Transient deterministic shallow landslide modeling:Requirements for susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS framework.Engineering Geology, 2008, 102(3):214-226. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013795208001853
    [60]
    Kim D, Sangjun I M, Sang H L.Predicting the rainfall-triggered landslides in a Forested Mountain region using TRIGRS model.Journal of Mountain Science, 2010, 7(1):83-91. doi:  10.1007/s11629-010-1072-9
    [61]
    Vieira B C, Fernandes N F, Filho O A.Shallow landslide prediction in the Serra do Mar, So Paulo, Brazil.Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2010, 10(9):1829-1837. doi:  10.5194/nhess-10-1829-2010
    [62]
    Liao Z, Hong Y, Kirschbaum D, et al.Evaluation of TRIGR's predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides:A case study in Macon County, North Carolina.Natural Hazards, 2011, 58(1):325-339. doi:  10.1007/s11069-010-9670-y
    [63]
    Raia S, Alvioli M, Rossi M, et al.Improving Predictive Power of Physically Based Rainfall-induced Shallow Landslide Models:A Probabilistic Approach.Geoscientific Model Development, 2014, 7:495-514. doi:  10.5194/gmd-7-495-2014
    [64]
    丛威青, 李铁锋, 潘懋, 等.基于非饱和渗流理论的区域降雨型地质灾害动力学预警方法研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2008, 44(2):212-216. doi:  10.3321/j.issn:0479-8023.2008.02.007
    [65]
    夏蒙, 王家鼎, 谷天峰, 等.基于TRIGRS模型的浅层黄土滑坡破坏概率评价.兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 4:453-458. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.0455-2059.2013.04.003
    [66]
    Chen Y L, Chen D H, Li Z C, et al.Preliminary studies on the dynamic prediction method of rainfall-triggered landslide.Journal of Mountain Science, 2016, 13(10):1735-1745. doi:  10.1007/s11629-014-3110-5
    [67]
    Bogaard T, Greco R.Preface "Hillslope hydrological modelling for landslides prediction".Journal of Earth System Science, 2014, 18(10):4185-4188. doi:  10.5194/hess-18-4185-2014
    [68]
    Montgomery D R, Sullivan K, Greenberg H M.Regional test of a model for shallow landsliding.Hydrological Processes, 1998, 12(6):943-955. doi:  10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1085
    [69]
    Dietrich W E, Reiss R, Hsu M, et al.A process-based model for colluvial soil depth and shallow landsliding using digital elevation data.Hydrological Processes, 1995, 9(3-4):383-400. doi:  10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1085
    [70]
    Wu W, Sidle R C.A distributed slope stability model for steep forested basins.Water Resources Research, 1995, 31(8):2097-2110. doi:  10.1029/95WR01136
    [71]
    田利川, 姜建梅.基于滑坡水文耦合模型的区域斜坡稳定性研究.资源环境与工程, 2008, 22(2):208-212. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1671-1211.2008.02.017
    [72]
    康超, 谌文武, 张帆宇, 等.确定性模型在黄土沟壑区斜坡稳定性预测中的应用.岩土力学, 2011, 32(1):207-210. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2011.01.033
    [73]
    孙金山, 陈明, 左昌群, 等.降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测模型.地质科技情报, 2012, 31(2):117-121. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1000-7849.2012.02.019
    [74]
    王佳佳, 殷坤龙, 杜娟, 等.基于GIS考虑准动态湿度指数的滑坡危险性预测水文-力学耦合模型研究.岩石力学与工程学报, 2013, 32(增刊Ⅱ):3868-3877. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/yslxygcxb2013z2111
    [75]
    Lanni C, Borga M, Rigon R, et al.Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility by means of a subsurface flow path connectivity index and estimates of soil depth spatial distribution.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2012, 16(11):3959-3971. doi:  10.5194/hess-16-3959-2012
    [76]
    Lepore C, Arnone E, Noto L V, et al.Physically based modeling of rainfall-triggered landslides:a case study in the Luquillo forest, Puerto Rico.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013, 17(9):3371-3387. doi:  10.5194/hess-17-3371-2013
    [77]
    Tao J, Barros A P.Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2014, 18(1):367-388. doi:  10.5194/hess-18-367-2014
    [78]
    Simoni S, Zanotti F, Bertoldi G, et al.Modelling the probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and channelized debris flows using GEOtop-FS.Hydrological Processes, 2007, 22(4):532-545. doi:  10.1002/hyp.6886/full
    [79]
    He X, Hong Y, Vergara H, et al.Development of a coupled hydrological-geotechnical framework for rainfall-induced landslides prediction.Journal of Hydrology, 2016, 543:395-405. doi:  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.10.016
    [80]
    包红军, 张珂, 晁丽君, 等.基于水土耦合机制的流域滑坡预报研究.气象, 2017, 43(9):91-103. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qx201709009
    [81]
    Zhang K, Xue X, Hong Y, et al.iCRESTRIGRS:A coupled modeling system for cascading flood-landslide disaster forecasting.Journal of Earth System Science, ,2016, 20(12):5035-5048. doi:  10.5194/hess-20-5035-2016
    [82]
    Brand E, Premchitt J, Phillipson H.Relationship Between Rainfall and Landslides in Hong Kong//Proceedings of 4th International Symposium Landslides, 1984: 377-384.
    [83]
    Chan R K S, Pang P L R, Pun W K.Recent developments in the Landslip Warning System in Hong Kong//Proceedings of the 14th Southeast Asian Geotechnical Conference, 2003: 219-224.
    [84]
    Cheung P Y, Wong M C, Yeung H Y.Application of Rainstorm Nowcast to Realtime Warning of Landslide Hazards in Hong Kong//WMO PWS Workshop on Warning of Real-Time Hazards by Using Nowcasting Technology, 2006: 9-13.
    [85]
    Peruccacci S, Brunetti M T, Gariano S L, et al.Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy.Geomorphology, 2017, 290:39-57. doi:  10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.03.031
    [86]
    Chen C, Lin L, Yu F, et al.Improving debris flow monitoring in Taiwan by using high-resolution rainfall products from QPESUMS.Natural Hazards, 2007, 40(2):447-461. doi:  10.1007/s11069-006-9004-2
    [87]
    Calvello M, Orsi RN D, Piciullo L, et al.The Rio de Janeiro early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides:Analysis of performance for the years 2010-2013.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015, 12:3-15. doi:  10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.10.005
    [88]
    Osanai N, Shimizu T, Kuramoto K, et al.Japanese early-warning for debris flows and slope failures using rainfall indices with Radial Basis Function Network.Landslides, 2010, 7(3):325-338. doi:  10.1007/s10346-010-0229-5
    [89]
    王卓妮.USGS滑坡研究和服务进展及启示.气象科技进展, 2013, 3(增刊Ⅰ):62-69. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/qxkjjz2013z1010
    [90]
    刘传正, 刘艳辉, 温铭生, 等.中国地质灾害区域预警方法与应用.北京:地质出版社, 2009.
    [91]
    温铭生, 王连俊, 连建发, 等.区域地质灾害气象预警效果评价.工程地质学报, 2011, 19(6):839-843. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2011.06.007
    [92]
    陈列, 王东法, 潘劲松, 等.浙江省地质灾害气象预报模型研究.热带气象学报, 2012, 28(5):764-770. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/rdqxxb201205017
    [93]
    张桂荣, 殷坤龙, 刘礼领, 等.基于WEBGIS和实时降雨信息的区域地质灾害预警预报系统.岩土力学, 2005, 26(8):1312-1317. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1000-7598.2005.08.033
    [94]
    单玉香, 鄂建, 黄敬军, 等.江苏省突发地质灾害气象风险预警模型优化与应用.中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2015, 26(1):122-126. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/zgdzzhyfzxb201501022
    [95]
    王仁乔, 周月华, 王丽, 等.湖北省山洪灾害临界雨量及降雨区划研究.高原气象, 2006, 25(2):330-334. doi:  10.3321/j.issn:1000-0534.2006.02.021
    [96]
    杨胜元, 陈百炼, 杨森林, 等.贵州省汛期地质灾害气象预报预警的探索与实践.贵州地质, 2005, 22(3):196-200. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/gzdz200503011
    [97]
    杨胜元, 陈百炼, 杨森林, 等.贵州省地质灾害-气象预报预警的基本思路与方法.中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2006, 17(2):111-114. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1003-8035.2006.02.025
    [98]
    尤凤春, 史印山, 郭丽霞.河北省山区地质灾害气象预警系统.气象科技, 2008, 36(6):818-821. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2008.06.030
    [99]
    钟洛加, 肖尚德, 周衍龙.基于WEBGIS的湖北省地质灾害气象预警预报.资源环境与工程, 2007, 21(增刊Ⅰ):104-106. http://d.old.wanfangdata.com.cn/Conference/6766878
    [100]
    周国兵, 马力, 廖代强.重庆市山体滑坡气象条件等级预报业务系统.应用气象学报, 2003, 14(1):122-124. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2003.01.015
    [101]
    王海芝, 韩建超, 王晟宇, 等.北京市突发地质灾害预警模式研究.城市地质, 2017, 12(3):31-35. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1007-1903.2017.03.006
    [102]
    余志山, 梁润娥, 王延江, 等.基于WebGIS的兰州市区滑坡灾害气象多元化模型预警系统研究.工程地质学报, 2012, 20(4):556-563. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1004-9665.2012.04.011
    [103]
    郭承燕.基于WebGIS的南京市滑坡气象预测预报及风险评估平台的设计与实现.西安:西安科技大学, 2012.
    [104]
    闵颖, 胡娟, 李超, 等.云南省滑坡泥石流灾害预报预警模型研究.灾害学, 2013, 28(4):216-220. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2013.04.038
    [105]
    魏平新, 杨森林.广东省短时气象地质灾害预警的实现及意义.地质灾害与环境保护, 2011, 22(2):54-59. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1006-4362.2011.02.011
    • Relative Articles
    • Supplements(0)
    • Cited By
  • 加载中
  • -->

Catalog

    Figures(4)  / Tables(1)

    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML
    Article views (4633) PDF downloads(250) Cited by()
    • Received : 2018-11-12
    • Accepted : 2019-01-18
    • Published : 2019-03-31
    Journal Online
    Contact

    © 2020 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science   京ICP备15006967号-1

    Supported by Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co. Ltd

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return