Quantitative Assessment of Regional Heavy Rainfall Process in Guangdong and Its Climatological Characteristics

Wu Hongyu; Zou Yan; Liu Wei

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20190210

Vol.30, NO.2, 2019

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Wu Hongyu, Zou Yan, Liu Wei. Quantitative assessment of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong and its climatological characteristics. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(2): 233-244. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190210.

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Wu Hongyu, Zou Yan, Liu Wei. Quantitative assessment of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong and its climatological characteristics. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(2): 233-244. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190210.

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Quantitative Assessment of Regional Heavy Rainfall Process in Guangdong and Its Climatological Characteristics

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190210

Wu Hongyu^{1,2
,
,},
Zou Yan³,
Liu Wei¹

1.
Guangdong Provincial Climate Center, Guangzhou 510641
2.
Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, CMA, Guangzhou 510641
3.
Fujian Provincial Climate Center, Fuzhou 350001

Received Date: 2018-08-02
Rev Recd Date: 2019-01-16
Publish Date: 2019-03-31

Abstract

Abstract

Using daily precipitation data of 86 meteorological stations in Guangdong from 1961 to 2017, the standard of regional heavy rainfall process is defined. Assessment methods on composite intensity of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong are constructed, which take duration, range, maximum daily precipitation and maximum accumulated precipitation during the process into consideration. Characteristics and changes of the frequency, intensity and rain-waterlogging years of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong in recent 57 years are studied. 1211 regional heavy rainfall processes are captured, and the annual average frequency is 21.2 times. There are obvious interannual and interdecadal variations, the highest frequency occurs in 2016 (30 times), and the lowest occurs in 1963 (13 times). The annual frequency of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong increases at a rate of 0.08/(10 a) in recent 57 years, though not quite significant. The regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong mainly occurs from April to September, accounting for 81.9% in the year, among which 45.4% processes occur in the first flood season (April-June), and 36.5% processes occur in the second flood season (July-September). The average duration of single regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong is 2.3 d, and the longest is 17 d (9-25 June 1968). The average range of a single process covers 20.3 stations, and the process occurring on 28 January 2016 is observed by the most stations (83). The regional heavy rainfall process with the maximum composite intensity index occurs during 12-24 June 2005, reaching 1385.1 mm (Longmen), and this coincides "05.6" torrential rains and floods in Guangdong. The frequency and strength of the regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong have intermonth, interannual and inter-decade variations, the frequency in May is the highest, and the strength in June is the highest. The annual harvest index of the rain waterlogging in Guangdong increases obviously at a rate of 0.17/(10 a) in recent 57 years. Regional heavy rainfall processes of relatively strong and strong class increase significantly, while those of relatively weak class decrease obviously in recent 57 years. Evaluation results show that there are five heavy rain waterlogging years, i.e., 2008, 2001, 1973, 1994, 1993.
- Guangdong;
- regional heavy rainfall process;
- composite intensity index

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References(35)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Variations of regional heavy rainfall frequency in Guangdong from 1961 to 2017

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Fig. 2 Ratio of mean regional heavy rainfall in Guangdong from 1961 to 2017

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Fig. 3 Variations of the harvest index of rain waterlogging in Guangdong from 1961 to 2017

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图 4 1961—2017年广东区域性暴雨过程不同等级发生次数

(a)弱，(b)较弱，(c)中等，(d)较强，(e)强

Fig. 4 Variations of regional heavy rainfall frequency with different class in Guangdong from 1961 to 2017

(a)weak, (b)relatively weak, (c)medium, (d)relatively strong, (e)strong

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Fig. 5 Variations of the monthly mean strength index of regional heavy rainfall in Guangdong from 1961 to 2017

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Table 1 Correspondence between different percentile(P)and abnormal classes

百分位数范围	暴雨过程异常等级
0 < P < 60	1(弱)
60≤P < 80	2(较弱)
80≤P < 90	3(中等)
90≤P < 95	4(较强)
95≤P≤100	5(强)

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Table 2 Correspondence between different percentile (P) and abnormal classes of rain-waterlogging years

百分位数范围	年景等级
0 < P≤10	1(弱)
10 < P≤30	2(较弱)
30 < P≤70	3(一般)
70 < P≤90	4(较强)
90 < P≤100	5(强)

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Table 3 Regional heavy rainfall processes in Guangdong with composite intensity up to class Ⅴ (strong) from 1961 to 2017

序号	暴雨发生时间	持续时间/d	范围/站	最大日降水量/mm	最大过程降水量/mm	综合强度指数
1	2005-06-12—24	13	72	420.5	1385.1	29.9
2	2001-06-02—13	12	63	605.3	1283.2	29.3
3	1968-06-09—25	17	68	260.4	1069.3	25.9
4	2003-06-06—16	11	58	566.3	911.2	24.8
5	1994-07-18—28	11	58	560.4	888.6	24.5
6	1994-06-08—20	13	72	523.5	691.2	24.4
7	1977-05-25—06-01	8	44	621.6	1196.5	23.7
8	1975-05-10—22	13	63	300.4	1012.2	22.8
9	1993-06-03—18	16	72	199.1	774.3	22.2
10	1998-06-19—26	8	56	398	1183.9	20.9
11	2017-06-13—22	10	59	362.7	944.9	20.8
12	1987-05-20—22	3	49	620.1	1024.1	20.2
13	1992-06-07—15	9	66	312	871.3	19.5
14	2008-05-29—6-7	10	59	346.9	757.9	19.1
15	1997-07-01—11	11	54	277.6	839.3	18.6
16	1973-05-06—13	8	65	324.2	801.2	18.5
17	2001-08-27—09-05	10	70	286.8	684.5	18.4
18	1998-05-29—06-06	9	42	433.1	761.5	17.9
19	2008-06-10—18	9	72	376.5	611.8	17.5
20	1982-05-10—13	4	23	640.6	823.5	17.2
21	1965-09-27—10-01	5	36	433.1	927.7	16.6
22	2014-05-15—23	9	41	288.7	924.7	16.5
23	1979-09-23—25	3	40	547.3	809.5	16.3

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Table 4 lnterannual variations of the harvest pattern index of rain-waterlogging and direct economic loss in Guangdong from 1994 to 2017

年份	雨涝年景指数	评估等级	直接经济损失/亿元
1994	2.11	5	170.00
1995	0.53	4	10.83
1996	-0.46	3	4.86
1997	0.86	4	37.10
1998	1.21	4	54.11
1999	-1.13	2	0.00
2000	0.45	3	5.61
2001	2.25	5	11.47
2002	0.34	3	16.11
2003	0.2	3	6.42
2004	-1.27	1	2.96
2005	0.74	4	56.32
2006	1.28	4	21.00
2007	-0.63	3	19.75
2008	2.81	5	83.81
2009	-0.44	3	8.22
2010	1.02	4	54.81
2011	-0.88	2	10.55
2012	-0.98	2	29.16
2013	0.34	3	189.65
2014	-0.1	3	79.52
2015	0.29	3	16.07
2016	0.57	4	27.36
2017	-0.06	3	21.60

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Table 5 Frequency and ratio of different level of regional heavy rainfall processes in Guangdong from 1961 to 2017

年份	1级		2级		3级		4级		5级		平均强度指数
年份	次数	比率/%	次数	比率/%	次数	比率/%	次数	比率/%	次数	比率/%	平均强度指数
1961—1970年	121	61.1	45	22.7	19	9.6	11	5.6	2	1.0	2.7
1971—1980年	128	57.6	49	22.1	24	10.8	17	7.7	4	1.8	3.0
1981—1990年	150	65.8	43	18.9	15	6.5	18	7.9	2	0.9	2.7
1991—2000年	119	57.8	42	20.4	22	10.7	16	7.7	7	3.4	3.3
2001—2010年	113	57.4	37	15.7	25	12.7	22	11.2	6	3.0	3.7
2011—2017年	104	65.0	25	15.6	14	8.8	15	9.4	2	1.2	2.9

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