Vol.30, NO.3, 2019
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Applied Meteorological Science  > 2019  >  30(3): 332-344
Zhang Meng, Yu Haipeng, Huang Jianping, et al. Assessment on unsystematic errors of GRAPES_GFS 2.0. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(3): 332-344. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190307.
Citation: Zhang Meng, Yu Haipeng, Huang Jianping, et al. Assessment on unsystematic errors of GRAPES_GFS 2.0. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(3): 332-344. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190307.
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Assessment on Unsystematic Errors of GRAPES_GFS 2.0

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190307
  • 1.

    Collage of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory for Semi-arid Climate Change, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000

  • 2.

    Unit 86 of No. 93811 PLA, Lanzhou 730020

  • 3.

    Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730020

  • 4.

    Center for Numerical Prediction, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

  • 5.

    State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

  • 6.

    Meteorological Observatory of No. 95920 PLA, Hengshui 253801

  • Received Date: 2018-11-20
  • Rev Recd Date: 2019-02-26
  • Publish Date: 2019-05-31
    Abstract
  • Unsystematic error is one of main sources of model simulation error, which is mainly induced by initial field error and model defect. Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) global model forecast data and final analysis data made by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) during January, April, July, October in 2014 are chosen to be compared and analyzed. In terms of temporal variation, conclusion could be made that peaks of unsystematic errors in both north and south hemispheres occur in their respective winters, and errors show periodical changes. With the increase of forecasting time, the model unsystematic mean square error along with geopotential height field increases over time, first in an exponential function way, and then linear growth. In addition, linear growth in temperature field and zonal wind field are discovered. It shows in the consequence that the large value of model unsystematic mean square error center in mid-latitude and distribute like zonal banded. Large value regions basically do not change along with forecast time. In zonal average geopotential height field and zonal wind field, large value regions are found in tropopause, whereas it is found in boundary layer in temperature field. The cause is that the parameterization scheme does not fully describe differences of these two stratifications in physical process and dynamic framework. It is worth mentioning that the error of the increase in the height of the temperature field at middle and upper levels of the troposphere decreasing. After fitting the error-time line, the error of the initial field, the upper limit of the prediction and the proportion error taken up by the initial field in the south hemisphere are all higher than that in the north hemisphere. Besides, it is found that the initial field gradually decreases in proportion with height increasing. It shows in the above results that the precision of GRAPES_GFS 2.0 for the simulation of mid-latitudes of the south hemisphere and the entire troposphere should be further improved. In order to discover internal physical mechanism of model forecast's defect, and correct error target, it is necessary to research the feature of unsystematic error of GRAPES global model, and analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of the error.
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    References(27)

  • Fig. 1  Forecast unsystematic errors of 500 hPa geopotential height field by GRAPES_GFS 2.0 with lead time of 1 d(a), 3 d(b), 5 d(c), 8 d(d) based on the average of selected time(the shaded)

    (solid lines denote mean field by NCEP FNL, unit:gpm)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 2  Empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis of unsystematic errors in 500 hPa geopotential height field based on the average of selected time

    (a)the first spatial mode, (b)the first mode corresponding to the time coefficient,
    (c)the second spatial mode, (d)the second mode corresponding to the time coefficient,
    (e)the third spatial mode, (f)the third mode corresponding to the time coefficient

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 3  Mean unsystematic errors(the shaded) of 500 hPa geopotential height field by GRAPES_GFS 2.0 with lead time of 2 days

    (solid lines denote mean field by NCEP FNL, unit:gpm) (a)January 2014, (b)April 2014, (c)July 2014, (d)October 2014

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 4  Forecast unsystematic errors(the shaded) of 500 hPa temperature field by GRAPES_GFS 2.0 with the lead time of 1 day(a), 3 days(b), 5 days(c), 8 days(d) based on the average of selected time

    (solid lines denote mean field by NCEP FNL, unit:K)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 5  Forecast unsystematic errors(the shaded) in zonal average temperature field by GRAPES_GFS 2.0 with lead time of 1 day(a), 3 days(b), 5 days(c), 8 days(d) based on the average of selected time

    (solid lines denote mean field by NCEP FNL, unit:K)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 6  Forecast unsystematic errors(the shaded) of 200 hPa zonal wind field by GRAPES_GFS 2.0 with lead time of 1 day(a), 3 days(b), 5 days(c), 8 days(d) based on the average of selected time

    (solid lines denote mean field by NCEP FNL, unit:m·s-1)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 7  Forecast unsystematic errors(the shaded) of 850 hPa zonal wind field by GRAPES_GFS 2.0 with lead time of 1 day(a), 3 days(b), 5 days(c), 8 days(d) based on the average of selected time

    (solid lines denote mean field by NCEP FNL, unit:m·s-1)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 8  Forecast unsystematic errors(the shaded) of zonal average wind field by GRAPES_GFS 2.0 with lead time of 1 day(a), 3 days(b), 5 days(c), 8 days(d) based on the average of selected time

    (solid lines denote mean field by NCEP FNL, unit:m·s-1)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 9  Unsystematic error of geopotential height field(a), temperature field(b), zonal wind field(c) at 500 hPa by GRAPES_GFS 2.0 along with lead time based on the average of selected time

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 10  Unsystematic error of geopotential height field(a), temperature field(b), zonal wind field(c) by GRAPES_GFS 2.0 along with height based on the average of selected time

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint
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    • Received : 2018-11-20
    • Accepted : 2019-02-26
    • Published : 2019-05-31
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