Advances of Research and Application on Major Rainy Seasons in China

Chen Lijuan; Zhao Junhu; Gu Wei; Liang Ping; Zhi Rong; Peng Jingbei; Zhao Shuyun; Gao Hui; Li Xiang; Zhang Peiqun

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20190401

Vol.30, NO.4, 2019

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2019 > 30(4): 385-400

Chen Lijuan, Zhao Junhu, Gu Wei, et al. Advances of research and application on major rainy seasons in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(4): 385-400. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190401.

Citation:

Chen Lijuan, Zhao Junhu, Gu Wei, et al. Advances of research and application on major rainy seasons in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(4): 385-400. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190401.

Chen Lijuan, Zhao Junhu, Gu Wei, et al. Advances of research and application on major rainy seasons in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(4): 385-400. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190401.

Citation:

Chen Lijuan, Zhao Junhu, Gu Wei, et al. Advances of research and application on major rainy seasons in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(4): 385-400. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190401.

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Advances of Research and Application on Major Rainy Seasons in China

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190401

1.
Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
2.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044
3.
Shanghai Regional Climate Center, Shanghai 200030
4.
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

Received Date: 2019-02-18
Rev Recd Date: 2019-04-26
Publish Date: 2019-07-31

Abstract

Abstract

The pre-rainy season in South China, Meiyu, rainy season in North China and autumn rainfall in West China are important phenomena influenced by the process of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). These regional rainy seasons determine the distribution and evolution of drought and flood during the flood season over mid-eastern China. Therefore, the prediction of regional rainy seasons plays an important role in the meteorological service of flood season.The research progress on characteristics and influencing factors of major rainy seasons during flood season in China are reviewed. In order to meet the demand of prediction operation, the influence and mechanism of the previous sea surface temperature (SST) and related atmosphere circulation systems on climatic events are analyzed firstly, and the statistical prediction models can be established based on that.Recent studies show that SST anomalies (SSTAs) are important forecast signals of rainy seasons. However, the influence and spatial-temporal pattern of SST vary with the interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics of different events. For instance, the interannual variation of precipitation in the pre-rainy season in South China can be better explained using the east-west SST contrast index in the tropical Pacific. Multiple timescale variation characteristics of Meiyu over the Yangtze River correspond to different SST forcing. Key regions of SST associated with interannual variation of Meiyu over the Yangtze River are in tropics. For the interdecadal or mutli-decadal time scale of Meiyu variations, the SST in middle and high latitudes may play an important role. The intensity of rainy-season precipitation in North China is not only coincident with the ENSO phase-switching, but also influenced by the developing speed of ENSO event. The key SST region that influences autumn rain in West China has changed with the inter-decadal changing background, which requires updating impact factors and models.These results provide strong support for the real-time prediction of climate events in recent years. During 2015-2018, the prediction accuracy of the onset date and intensity (rainfall) of Meiyu and rainy season in North China is 75% and 81%, respectively.
- regional rainy seasons;
- pre-rainy season in South China;
- Meiyu;
- rainy season in North China;
- autumn rainfall in West China

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References(126)

Figures and Tables

图 1 华南前汛期期间气候平均的200 hPa风场(a)，降水偏多和偏少年200 hPa风场的差值合成(b)，气候平均(黑色等值线)、降水偏多(蓝色等值线)和偏少(红色等值线)年500 hPa等压面上5875 gpm等值线(c)，气候平均的850 hPa风场(d)，降水偏多和偏少年850 hPa风场的差值合成(矢量)及气候平均850 hPa气温(等值线, 单位：℃)(e)，降水偏多和偏少年700 hPa对流不稳定度的差值合成(单位：10^-5 K·Pa^-1, 等值线间隔为2)(f)^[14]

(图 1b、图 1e、图 1f中黄色表示正相关，蓝色表示负相关，填色区浅、中、深表示达到0.1, 0.05, 0.01显著性水平)

Fig. 1 Features of pre-rainy season in South China(from Reference [14]) (a)the climatology of 200 hPa wind, (b)composite anomalies of 200 hPa wind between wet and dry years, (c)the location of the western Pacific subtropical high(indicated by 5875 gpm contour) for the climatology (the black line), wet years(the blue line), and dry years(the red line), (d)the climatology of 850 hPa wind, (e)composite anomalies of 850 hPa winds(the vector) between wet and dry years overlaid with the climatology of 850 hPa air temperature(the contour, unit:℃), (f)composite anomalies of 700 hPa convective instability between wet and dry FRS years(unit:10^-5 K·Pa^-1, the interval is 2)

(the yellow and the blue denote positive and negative correlations, respectively, and the light, middle, dark shaded denote passing tests of 0.1, 0.05, 0.01 levels)

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Fig. 2 Composite anomalies of sea surface temperature(SST) between wet and dry years of pre-rainy season in South China(unit:℃, the interval is 0.2)(from Reference [14]) (a)SST in spring, (b)monthly tropical SST averaged over 7.5°S-7.5°N(the shaded is the same as in Fig. 1)

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Fig. 3 Regression of 850 hPa velocity potential(the contour, unit:10⁵ m²·s^-1, the interval is 2) and divergent wind (the vector)(a), 850 hPa stream function(unit:10⁵ m²·s^-1, the interval is 2)(b), and column integrated water vapor flux(c) on the normalized spring mean I_EWC for the period of 1981-2015(from Reference [14])(the shaded is the same as in Fig. 1)

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Fig. 4 The concept map of key factors which impact annual variability of pre-rainy season in South China

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Fig. 5 The concept map of impact system on Meiyu onset date over regions south of the Yangtze River(from Reference [45])

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Fig. 6 Five quasi-periodic components and one trend component of anomalies of Meiyu over the Yangtze River(from Reference [62])

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Fig. 7 Zonal-vertical cross section of composites of 5°S-5°N averaged vertical velocity anomalies (the shaded) and the schematic diagram of wind fields anomalies(the vector) in Jul-Aug for El Niño decaying years(a) and years El Niño switched to La Nia(b) during 1961-2015(from Reference [102])

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Fig. 8 The concept map of key factors impacting annual variability of rainy season in North China

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Fig. 9 The concept map of key factors impacting the intensity of Huaxi autumn rainfall

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Table 1 Climate features of different regional rainy seasons

雨季	平均开始时间	平均结束时间	平均持续时间/d	平均强度(雨量/mm)
华南前汛期	04-06	07-04	89	733.8
江南梅雨	06-08	07-08	30	365.4
长江中下游梅雨	06-14	07-13	29	281.0
江淮梅雨	06-21	07-15	25	264.4
华北雨季	07-18	08-18	32	136.0
华西秋雨	08-31	11-01	62	202.8

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Table 2 Predictors and weight coefficients of Meiyu prediction model(from Reference [62])

预测分量	预测因子	权重系数
IMF1年际增量	前冬Niño3区海温异常	0.865
IMF2	热带西太平洋和北太平洋海温异常	0.454
IMF3	北太平洋海温年代际变化分量	0.270
IMF4	北太平洋多年代际变化(PDO)	0.252
IMF5	北大西洋多年代际变化(AMO)	0.370
趋势项		0.393

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Table 3 The real time prediction and observation of major climate events from 2015 to 2018

雨季	对比项	开始时间				雨量
雨季	对比项	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年
江南梅雨	实况预测	-12 d 偏早	-14 d 偏早	-4 d 偏晚	+11 d 偏晚	+85% 偏多	+44% 偏多	+35% 偏多	-32% 偏少
长江梅雨	实况预测	-19 d 偏早	+5 d 偏晚	+7 d 偏晚	+8 d 偏晚	+95% 偏多	+108% 偏多	-41% 偏多	-39% 偏少
江淮梅雨	实况预测	+3 d 偏晚	-1 d 偏早	+9 d 偏晚	+7 d 偏晚	+47% 偏多	+59% 偏多	-56% 正常	-35% 偏少
华北雨季	实况预测	-3 d 偏晚	-1 d 偏晚	+13 d 偏早	-9 d 偏早	-52% 偏少	+19% 略多	-28% 略多	22% 偏多

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