Vol.30, NO.4, 2019
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Applied Meteorological Science  > 2019  >  30(4): 401-415
Zhu Congwen, Liu Boqi, Zuo Zhiyan, et al. Recent advances on sub-seasonal variability of East Asian summer monsoon. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(4): 401-415. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190402.
Citation: Zhu Congwen, Liu Boqi, Zuo Zhiyan, et al. Recent advances on sub-seasonal variability of East Asian summer monsoon. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(4): 401-415. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190402.
shu

Recent Advances on Sub-seasonal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20190402
  • 1.

    Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

  • 2.

    Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

  • Received Date: 2019-02-18
  • Rev Recd Date: 2019-04-26
  • Publish Date: 2019-07-31
    Abstract
  • The sub-seasonal (10-90 days) variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is crucial for extreme climate disasters (e.g., persistent heavy rainfall and heat waves) in China, which is a blind spot between the upper weather forecast and the seasonal prediction. Recent advances of EASM on sub-seasonal timescale are reported, including features of EASM sub-seasonal variation, influences of mid-latitudinal Eurasian soil moisture and snow cover, as well as the tropical air-sea interaction. Results show the potential predictability of EASM sub-seasonal variability depends on the phase-locking between the sub-seasonal variability and seasonal cycle of EASM. The sub-seasonal variation of EASM is the intrinsic physical mode, which is different from the Madden-Julian Oscillation. It is featured by the intra-seasonal interaction among the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the South Asian High (SAH) and the Mongolian cyclone (MC), along with the alternation of sub-seasonal rain belt in China. The onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), the emergence of Meiyu over the Yangtze River and the starting of rainy season in North China are critical for both the seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in China. In mid-May, the eastward extension of SAH onto the South China Sea is vertically coupled with the retreat of WPSH, leading to the onset of SCSSM. Afterwards, the temporal evolution of sub-seasonal modes induced by WPSH, SAH and MC determines the beginning of rainy season over the Yangtze River and North China. Another predicting source of EASM sub-seasonal variation is the interaction between underlying forcing and atmospheric circulation. On one hand, the spring soil moisture over East China acts as an important precursor of summer monsoon onset and anomalous summer rainfall, and the spring snow cover over Eurasian continent could modulate the rainfall over South China. On the other hand, the relationship between tropical air-sea interaction and SCSSM onset shows evident interdecadal variation. The decaying rate of ENSO events and the mid-latitudinal wave activity in the upper troposphere can alter the sub-seasonal variation of EASM on interannual timescale. In addition, a new detrended DPCCA method is developed to investigate the interaction among multi-factors of EASM on multi-timescales. Unsolved questions about the sub-seasonal variation of EASM include objectively qualifying EASM sub-seasonal modes, the crucial process affecting year-by-year changes of EASM sub-seasonal modes, and co-effects of underlying factors on EASM sub-seasonal modes.
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    References(78)

  • Fig. 1  Climatological onset process of South China Sea summer monsoon (a)360 K isentropic potential vorticity(the shaded, unit:PVU) and winds(vectors, unit:m·s-1) in Pentad 27, (b)upper-tropospheric diabatic heating(the shaded, unit:K·d-1) and air temperature(contours, unit:K) in Pentad 29, (c)110°-120°E averaged latitude-pressure cross section of diabatic heating(the shaded, unit:K·d-1), positive PV advection(contours, unit:10-5 PVU·s-1) and local meridional circulation (vectors, unit:m·s-1, upper-level ascending is represented by bold arrows) in Pentad 27, (d)110°-120°E averaged latitude-pressure cross section of diabatic heating(the shaded, unit:K·d-1), positive PV advection(contours, unit:10-5 PVU·s-1) and local meridional circulation (vectors, unit:m·s-1, upper-level ascending is represented by bold arrows) in Pentad 29, (e)the horizontal distribution of OLR(unit:W·m-2) in Pentad 27, (f)the horizontal distribution of OLR(unit:W·m-2) in Pentad 29

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    Fig. 2  Spatial distribution of the climatological sub-seasonal(40-80 d) modes of the EASM (the shaded denotes rainfall, the vector denotes wind) (a)the rainfall and 850 hPa wind field regressed against the first dominant mode, (b)the rainfall and 850 hPa wind field regressed against the second dominant mode, (c)200 hPa wind field regressed against the first dominant mode, (d)200 hPa wind field regressed against the second dominant mode

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    Fig. 3  Influences of spring soil moisture on the summer rainfall over East China(from Reference [68]) (anomalies are defined by results of sensitivity-minus-control runs) (a)rainfall anomalies(unit:mm·d-1) in sensitivity experiments forced by the wetter soil moisture in March, (b)rainfall anomalies(unit:mm·d-1) in sensitivity experiments forced by the drier soil moisture in March

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    Fig. 4  Effects of spring snow over the Eurasian continent on the rainfall anomaly in China(from Reference [69]) (the shaded denotes passing the test of 0.05 level) (a)in-situ rainfall in JJA regressed against the snow water equivalent during Mar in CFSR, (b)in-situ rainfall in JJA regressed against the snow water equivalent during Apr in CFSR, (c)in-situ rainfall in JJA regressed against the snow water equivalent during May in CFSR, (d)snow water equivalent in zero leading month regressed against the predicted JJA rainfall starting from Mar in CFSv2, (e)snow water equivalent in zero leading month regressed against the predicted JJA rainfall starting from Apr in CFSv2, (f)snow water equivalent in zero leading month regressed against the predicted JJA rainfall starting from May in CFSv2

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    Fig. 5  Distinct SSTA affecting the SCSSM onset time in different periods (a)horizontal distribution of SSTAs in Apr affecting the onset time of South China Sea summer monsoon during 1980-1993, (b)horizontal distribution of SSTAs in Apr affecting the onset time of South China Sea summer monsoon during 1994-2014, (c)the seasonal evolution of SSTAs in key regions during 1980-1993, (d)the seasonal evolution of SSTAs in key regions during 1994-2014

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    Fig. 6  Two interannual dominant modes of the South Asian High(SAH) in May(from Reference [74])(the bold solid contour denotes 14270 gpm geopotential height, the shaded denotes climatological geopotential height greater than 14270 gpm, the black dashed line denotes climatological SAH ridgeline, the red dashed line denotes the ridgeline of SAH with the strong SAH meridional position mode, the blue dashed line denotes the ridgeline of SAH with the strong SAH meridional position mode) (a)composites of 150 hPa geopotential height and ridgeline of the SAH in the years with the strong SAH intensity mode, (b)composites of 150 hPa geopotential height and ridgeline of the SAH in the years with the weak SAH intensity mode, (c)composites of 150 hPa geopotential height and ridgeline of the SAH in the years with the strong SAH meridional position mode, (d)composites of 150 hPa geopotential height and ridgeline of the SAH in the years with the weak SAH meridional position mode

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    Fig. 7  Comparison of the western Pacific subtropical high between deep summer(Jul-Aug) of 1983 and 2016(from Reference [75]) (a)wave activity flux(the vector, unit:m2·s-2) and relative vorticity (the contour, unit:10-5 s-1) at 200 hPa in deep summer of 1983, (b)vertical difference between 200 hPa and 850 hPa velocity potential (the contour, unit:106 m2·s-2) and divergent winds(the vector, unit:m·s-1) in deep summer of 1983, (c)SSTA(the shaded, unit:K) and 850 hPa stream function(the contour, unit:106 m2·s-2) in deep summer of 1983, (d)wave activity flux(the vector, unit:m2·s-2) and relative vorticity (the contour, unit:10-5·s-1) at 200 hPa in deep summer of 2016, (e)vertical difference between 200 hPa and 850 hPa velocity potential (the contour, unit:106 m2·s-2) and divergent winds(the vector, unit:m·s-1) in deep summer of 2016, (f)SSTA(the shaded, unit:K) and 850 hPa stream function(the contour, unit:106 m2·s-2) in deep summer of 2016

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    Fig. 8  Climatological means of MJO index from Apr to Oct during 1981-2010 (a)intensity, (b)phase, (c)RMM1 and RMM2

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    • Received : 2019-02-18
    • Accepted : 2019-04-26
    • Published : 2019-07-31
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