Occurrence Characteristics of Early Rice Heat Disaster in Jiangxi Province

Yang Jianying; Huo Zhiguo; Wang Peijuan; Wu Dingrong

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20200104

Vol.31, NO.1, 2020

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Yang Jianying, Huo Zhiguo, Wang Peijuan, et al. Occurrence characteristics of early rice heat disaster in Jiangxi Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(1): 42-51. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20200104.

Citation:

Yang Jianying, Huo Zhiguo, Wang Peijuan, et al. Occurrence characteristics of early rice heat disaster in Jiangxi Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(1): 42-51. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20200104.

Yang Jianying, Huo Zhiguo, Wang Peijuan, et al. Occurrence characteristics of early rice heat disaster in Jiangxi Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(1): 42-51. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20200104.

Citation:

Yang Jianying, Huo Zhiguo, Wang Peijuan, et al. Occurrence characteristics of early rice heat disaster in Jiangxi Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(1): 42-51. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20200104.

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Occurrence Characteristics of Early Rice Heat Disaster in Jiangxi Province

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20200104

1.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing

Received Date: 2019-04-04
Rev Recd Date: 2019-07-10
Publish Date: 2020-01-31

Abstract

Abstract

Increasing of extreme hot weather has been witnessed in China in the past several decades. Rice is generally considered to be seriously threatened by hot weather, especial frequent occurrences of extreme hot weather. Though the rice heat disaster is widely studied, researches on temporal characteristics of early rice heat are lacking. It is of great merit to explore the rice heat-lead characteristics of hot weather processes, and highlight the particular period severely hit by rice heat to provide support for rice heat monitoring, prevention, and mitigation. Therefore, maximum temperature, disaster and phenological data on rice in Jiangxi are integrated to construct the historical early rice heat samples from 1981 to 2016. Nine sets of rice heat samples are built in the context of combinations of different hot weather duration (3-5 d, 6-8 d and more than 8 d) and heat levels (light, moderate and severe). Afterwards, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) and information diffusion method are adopted to analyze starting and ending dates of rice heat and their orders comparing with heading, and to explore rice heat occurring possibility and characteristics of rice heat in different level. Results show that the occurrence time of heat disaster is approximately 6 d before heading stage to 20 d after heading stage. It is with great possibility of 36.73% for heat disaster to start in 1-5 d after heading and 18.37% in -4 d-0 before heading and 6-10 d after heading. Effects of high temperature on early rice gradually decrease as the mature stage starts, with 5.61% rice heat occurring in 15 d after rice heading. The probability of moderate and light heat damage is more than 80% when 3-5 d of hot weather occurs and increases to 98.77% when more than 5 d of hot weather occurs during heading-flowering stage. It is identified that light rice heat mainly occurs in 3-17 d after heading, moderate rice heat occurs in 2-12 d after heading and severe rice heat occurs 2 d before heading and 9 d after heading. Converting to early rice phenological data, the above is concluded that major occurrence periods for light rice heat is from heading to mid-grouting stage, moderate rice heat in stage of heading to early-mid grouting and severe rice heat from booting to early grouting stage.
- extreme hot weather process;
- rice heat disaster;
- heading stage;
- maximum air temperature

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References(55)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Representation of 196 early rice heat disaster processes

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Fig. 2 Probability of starting and ending calendars of rice heat disaster in different range of days before or after heading

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Fig. 3 Probability of different rice heat intensity in different range of days before or after heading (a)3~5 d, (b)6~8 d, (c)more than 8 d

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Fig. 4 Accumulative probability distributions of starting and ending calendars of 3-5 d, 6-8 d and more than 8 d rice heat disasters in each level

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Table 1 Quantity information of early rice heat disaster samples

热害等级	3~5 d	6~8 d	8 d以上
轻度	19	7	10
中度	25	22	19
重度	7	13	74

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Table 2 Information of early rice heat level and hot weather duration combinations

持续日数	热害等级	起始日			结束日
持续日数	热害等级	最早/d	最晚/d	平均/d	最早/d	最晚/d	平均/d
3~5 d	轻度	-1	20	9.6	3	23	12.3
	中度	-5	16	7.2	-3	19	10.0
	重度	0	13	5.4	2	16	8.0
6~8 d	轻度	13	18	15.7	18	23	21.0
	中度	-5	18	7.3	0	22	12.9
	重度	-4	13	4.9	1	20	10.8
8 d以上	轻度	11	14	12.4	19	22	20.7
	中度	-2	11	5.1	6	23	15.6
	重度	-6	13	1.2	2	20	11.9

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Table 3 Proportions of different duration (3~5 d, 6~8 d and more than 8 d) rice heat disaster in different range of days before or after heading (unit:%)

距抽穗日数/d (起始日)	持续日数
距抽穗日数/d (起始日)	3~5 d	6~8 d	8 d以上
-9~-5	16.66	16.67	66.67
-4~0	16.67	13.89	69.44
1~5	18.05	13.89	68.06
6~10	38.89	27.78	33.33
11~15	31.43	31.43	37.14
16~20	54.55	45.45	0

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Table 4 The starting and ending calendars of rice heat (demonstrated by days before or after heading) with cumulative probability of 20%, 50% and 80% (unit:d)

持续日数	热害等级	累积概率
		开始日			结束日
		20%	50%	80%	20%	50%	80%
3~5 d	轻度	3.2	9.6	16.0	5.8	12.3	18.7
	中度	2.5	7.2	11.9	4.9	10.0	15.2
	重度	1.5	5.4	9.4	3.7	8.0	12.3
6~8 d	轻度	14.2	15.7	17.2	19.6	21.0	22.4
	中度	2.2	7.3	12.3	7.7	12.9	18.2
	重度	0.7	4.9	9.0	6.1	10.8	15.5
8 d以上	轻度	11.0	12.4	13.8	19.2	20.7	22.2
	中度	1.9	5.1	8.4	11.7	15.6	19.5
	重度	-2.1	1.2	4.5	8.2	11.9	15.6

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