Peng Yanyu, Liu Yu, Miao Yucong. A numerical study on impacts of greenhouse gases on Asian summer monsoon. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 245-256. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210209.
Citation: Peng Yanyu, Liu Yu, Miao Yucong. A numerical study on impacts of greenhouse gases on Asian summer monsoon. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(2): 245-256. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210209.

A Numerical Study on Impacts of Greenhouse Gases on Asian Summer Monsoon

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210209
  • Received Date: 2020-11-05
  • Rev Recd Date: 2020-12-27
  • Publish Date: 2021-03-31
  • The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased continuously since industrial revolution and significantly impacted the global climate, of which global warming is the most direct and prominent manifestation. The Community Atmosphere Model V5.1 (CAM5.1) is examined and used to simulate multiple meteorological elements of Asian summer monsoon using the reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research), and the results show that it could reproduce the main features of Asian summer monsoon well. Sensitivity experiments are then carried out to study the response mechanism of Asian summer monsoon to greenhouse gas increase in terms of energy transformation, which adopt greenhouse gases emission scenarios of 2000 and 1850 respectively. The models are run for 20 years from 1991 to 2010, and the results of the latter 10 years in summer (June to August) are analyzed.With increasing greenhouse gases concentration, the surface air temperature in the Asian continent is mostly increasing, except for the Arabian Peninsula and northwestern Indian Peninsula. The monsoon is strengthened in central Indian Peninsula, Indo-China Peninsula and eastern China. In addition, monsoon precipitation increases in the central and northern Indian Peninsula, northern and central Indo-China Peninsula, and eastern China, while decreases in southern Indian Peninsula, southern Tibetan plateau, central and western China, the Philippines and Japan. Correlation analysis of atmospheric energy budget and conversion shows that increased greenhouse gases concentration enhances the atmospheric heat sources by means of increasing the convective condensational latent heat. The increase in atmospheric heat sources results in an increase of full potential energy. Thus, there are positive transformations of full potential energy to kinetic energy of divergent wind, and the transformation of kinetic energy from divergent wind to non-divergent wind also increases, which ultimately enhances the summer monsoon over central Indian Peninsula, Indo-China Peninsula and eastern China. Further analysis shows that the increase of convective condensational latent heat is the result of the decrease of atmospheric stability, the enhancement of convective activity, the increase of cloud thickness and the increase of convective precipitation caused by the increase of greenhouse gases concentration. Meanwhile, the increase of convective precipitation is the main cause for the increase of total precipitation.
  • Fig. 1  Difference in different elements between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
    (a)surface air temperature, (b)wind field at 850 hPa, (c)rotational wind at 850 hPa,(d)precipitation

    Fig. 2  Difference in atmospheric heat source between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)

    Fig. 3  Difference in 4 heat sources between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
    (a)long-wave heating rate, (b)short-wave heating rate, (c)condensational latent heating rate,(d)surface sensible heating rate

    Fig. 4  Difference in condensation latent heating rate between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level) (a)convective process, (b)large-scale process

    Fig. 5  Difference in convective cloud depth between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    Fig. 6  Difference in different elements on vertical cross section of 115°E between experiment TB and experiment TC in summer

    (a)temperature,(b)atmospheric heating rate

    Fig. 7  The conversion term of total potential energy to divergent wind at 850 hPa in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
    (a)experiment TB,(b)difference between experiment TB and experiment TC

    Fig. 8  The conversion term of divergent wind to rotational wind at 850 hPa in summer

    (the dots denote passing the test of 0.005 level)
    (a)experiment TB,(b)difference between experiment TB and experiment TC

    Table  1  Numerical experiment designs

    试验 温室气体排放情景 气溶胶排放情景
    TA 2000年 2000年
    TB 2000年 1850年
    TC 1850年 1850年
    DownLoad: Download CSV
  • [1]
    Zhu Q G, Lin J R, Shou S W, et al. Synoptic Meteorology Principles and Methods. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2000: 565-579.
    [2]
    Miao Y C, Guo J P, Liu S H, et al. Classification of summertime synoptic patterns in Beijing and their association with boundary layer structure affecting aerosol pollution. Atmos Chem Phys, 2017, 17: 3097-3110. doi:  10.5194/acp-17-3097-2017
    [3]
    Miao Y C, Hu X M, Liu S H, et al. Seasonal variation of local atmospheric circulations and boundary layer structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and implications for air quality. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2015, 7(4): 1602-1626. doi:  10.1002/2015MS000522
    [4]
    Chu Z, Guo J P. Effects of climatic change on maize varieties distribution in the future of Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2018, 29(2): 165-176. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20180204
    [5]
    Hou Y Y, Zhang L, Wu M X, et al. Advances of modern agrometeorological service and technology in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2018, 29(6): 641-656. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20180601
    [6]
    Huo Z G, Shang Y, Wu D R, et al. Review on disaster of hot dry wind for wheat in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2019, 30(2): 129-141. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20190201
    [7]
    Ren S X, Zhao H R, Qi Y, et al. The outbreak and damage of the Pleonomus canaliculatus in wheat field under the background of climate change. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(5): 620-630. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20200509
    [8]
    Song F F.Numerical Simulation of Natural Variability and External Forcing Affecting East Asian Summer Monsoon Changes.Beijing: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2015.
    [9]
    Bao Q, Wang B, Liu Y M, et al. The impact of the Tibetan Plateau warming on the East Asian summer monsoon-A study of numerical simulation. Chin J Atmos Sci, 2008, 32(5): 997-1005. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200805000.htm
    [10]
    Ke Z J, Hua L J, Zhong L H, et al. The influence of sea surface temperature anomaly on the East Asian summer monsoon strength and its precursor. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2015, 26(5): 536-544. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20150503
    [11]
    Tada R, Zheng H B, Clift P D. Evolution and variability of the Asian monsoon and its potential linkage with uplift of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau. Progress in Earth & Planetary Science, 2016, 3(1): 4.
    [12]
    Wang S W, Ye J L, Gong D Y, et al. Construction of mean annual temperature series for the last one hundred years in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 1998, 9(4): 392-401. http://qikan.camscma.cn/article/id/19980459
    [13]
    Wang Y J, Zhou B T, Ren Y Y, et al. Impacts of global climate change on China's climate security. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2016, 27(6): 750-758. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20160612
    [14]
    He C, Wang Z Q, Zhou T J, et al. Enhanced latent heating over the Tibetan Plateau as a key to the enhanced East Asian summer monsoon circulation under a warming climate. J Climate, 2019, 32(11): 3373-3388. doi:  10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0427.1
    [15]
    Bueh C. Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Chin Sci Bull, 2003, 48(7): 737-742. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-KXTB200307021.htm
    [16]
    Yang S L, Ding Z L, Li Y Y, et al. Warming-induced northwestward migration of the East Asian monsoon rain belt from the Last Glacial Maximum to the mid-Holocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015, 112(43): 13178-13183. doi:  10.1073/pnas.1504688112
    [17]
    Pang Y S, Zhu C W, Ma Z F, et al. Coupling wheels in the East Asian summer monsoon circulations and their impacts on precipitation anomalies in China. Chin J Atmos Sci, 2019, 43(4): 875-894. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK201904013.htm
    [18]
    Wang H, Li D L. Effects of anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and aerosols on decadal transition of summer precipitation over eastern China in the late 1970s. Acta Meteor Sinica, 2019, 77(2): 327-345. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB201902013.htm
    [19]
    Chen Z L, Dong X X, Wang X, et al. Spatial change of precipitation in response to the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum warming in China. Global and Planetary Change, 2020, 194, 103313. doi:  10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103313
    [20]
    Sun Y, Ding Y H. Responses of South and East Asian summer monsoons to different land-sea temperature increases under a warming scenario. Chin Sci Bull, 2011, 56(25): 2718-2726. doi:  10.1007/s11434-011-4602-0
    [21]
    Chen L, Qu X, Huang G, et al. Projections of East Asian summer monsoon under 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming goals. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2019, 137: 2187-2201. doi:  10.1007/s00704-018-2720-1
    [22]
    Ding Y H, Li X, Li Q P. Advances of surface wind speed changes over China under global warming. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(1): 1-12. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20200101
    [23]
    Li Q P, Ding Y H, Dong W J. Summer precipitation change over eastern China in future 30 years under SRES A2 scenario. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2008, 19(6): 770-780. http://qikan.camscma.cn/article/id/20080617
    [24]
    Lu B.Effects of Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols on the Changes of Global Monsoon and East Asian Monsoon.Beijing: Peking University, 2013.
    [25]
    Wang J W, Tang X, Chen B D, et al. Global warming and north edge of Asian summer monsoon: Numerical experiment with doubled CO2. Plateau Meteorology, 2012, 31(2): 418-427. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX201202014.htm
    [26]
    Wu L X, Meng S J, Liu Z Y. The roles of oceans in the Asian summer monsoon response to global warming. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2009, 39(5): 839-845. http://en.cnki.com.cn/Article_en/CJFDTOTAL-QDHY200905012.htm
    [27]
    Li X Q, Ting M F, Li C H, et al. Mechanisms of Asian summer monsoon changes in response to anthropogenic forcing in CMIP5 models. J Climate, 2015, 28(10): 4107-4125. doi:  10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00559.1
    [28]
    He B, Bao Q, Li J D, et al. Influences of external forcing changes on the summer cooling trend over East Asia. Climatic Change, 2013, 117(4): 829-841. doi:  10.1007/s10584-012-0592-4
    [29]
    Song F F, Zhou T J, Qian Y. Responses of East Asian summer monsoon to natural and anthropogenic forcings in the 17 latest CMIP5 models. Geophys Res Lett, 2014, 41(2): 596-603. doi:  10.1002/2013GL058705
    [30]
    Li X Q, Ting M F. Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: The relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change. Climate Dyn, 2016, 49: 2863-2880.
    [31]
    Li X, Liang J Y, Zheng B. Interdecadal variabilities of SCS summer monsoon intensity. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2007, 18(3): 330-339. http://qikan.camscma.cn/article/id/20070355
    [32]
    Yang M, Xu H M, Li W L, et al. Variations of East Asian monsoon and its relationships with land-sea temperature difference in recent 40 years. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2008, 19(5): 522-530. http://qikan.camscma.cn/article/id/20080502
    [33]
    Xie L A. Diagnostic study of summer monsoon over the South China Sea. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 1986(2): 129-135. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX198602002.htm
    [34]
    Krishnamurti T N, Ramanathan Y. Sensitivity of the monsoon onset to differential heating. J Atmos Sci, 1982, 39(6): 1290-1306. doi:  10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<1290:SOTMOT>2.0.CO;2
    [35]
    Guo Z Y, Liu Y, Li W L. A numerical study of the mechanism of aerosols effect on Asian summer monsoon. Acta Meteor Sinica, 2017, 75(5): 797-810. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB201705010.htm
    [36]
    Ma X L, Gao X N, Liu Y, et al. Simulations of aerosol influences on the East Asian winter monsoon. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2018, 29(3): 333-343. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20180307
    [37]
    Neale R B, Chen C C, Gettelman A, et al.Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model(CAM 5.0).NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-486+STR, 2012.
    [38]
    Ding N, Li H M, Zhang T, et al.Performance Modeling of the Community Earth System Model CESM//National Conference on High Performance Computing, 2013: 173-181.
    [39]
    Liou K N, Guo C L, Zhou S J. An Introduction to Atmospheric Radiation. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2004.
    [40]
    Yanai M, Esbensen S, Chu J H. Determination of bulk properties of tropical cloud clusters from large-scale heat and moisture budgets. J Atmos Sci, 1973, 30(4): 611-627. doi:  10.1175/1520-0469(1973)030<0611:DOBPOT>2.0.CO;2
    [41]
    Yu Z H, Miao M Q, Jiang Q R, et al. Fluid Mechanics. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007.
    [42]
    Krishnamurti T N, Suhrahmanyam D. The 30 to 50 day mode at 850 mb during MONEX. J Atmos Sci, 1982, 39(9): 2088-2095. doi:  10.1175/1520-0469(1982)039<2088:TDMAMD>2.0.CO;2
    [43]
    Chen L X, Zhu Q G, Luo H B. East Asian Monsoon. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1995.
    [44]
    Huang R H, Sun F Y. Impacts of the thermal state and the convective activities in the tropical western warm pool on the summer climate anomalies in East Asia. Chin J Atmos Sci, 1994, 18(2): 141-151. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK199402001.htm
    [45]
    Bueh C, Shi N, Ji L R, et al. Features of the EAP events on the medium-range evolution process and the mid- and high-latitude Rossby wave activities during the Meiyu period. Chin Sci Bull, 2008, 53(4): 610-623. doi:  10.1007/s11434-008-0005-2
    [46]
    Shi W L, Min J Z, Fei J F, et al. Analysis of characteristics of convective precipitation under global warming and its impact factors. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2013, 18(1): 32-42. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QHYH201301005.htm
  • 加载中
  • -->

Catalog

    Figures(8)  / Tables(1)

    Article views (2109) PDF downloads(125) Cited by()
    • Received : 2020-11-05
    • Accepted : 2020-12-27
    • Published : 2021-03-31

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint