Vol.32, NO.3, 2021
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Article Navigation >  Journal of Applied Meteorological Science  > 2021  >  32(3): 272-288
Gao Shuanzhu, Zhang Shengjun, Lü Xinyan, et al. Circulation characteristics and thermal and dynamic conditions 48 hours before typhoon formation in South China Sea. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(3): 272-288. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210302.
Citation: Gao Shuanzhu, Zhang Shengjun, Lü Xinyan, et al. Circulation characteristics and thermal and dynamic conditions 48 hours before typhoon formation in South China Sea. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(3): 272-288. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20210302.
shu

Circulation Characteristics and Thermal and Dynamic Conditions 48 Hours Before Typhoon Formation in the South China Sea

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210302
  • 1.

    National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

  • 2.

    State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

  • Received Date: 2021-01-28
  • Rev Recd Date: 2021-03-10
  • Publish Date: 2021-05-31
    Abstract
  • Based on the tropical cyclone best track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration and the geostationary infrared satellite cloud image from April to November during 1979-2019, 189 typhoons formed in the South China Sea are selected as target cases. The circulation characteristics, dynamic and thermal conditions from 48 hours before typhoon formation to the time of typhoon generation are analyzed using the reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with 1°×1° grid. The results indicate that the typhoon in the South China Sea is formed in a large range of tropical ocean with high surface temperature, high water vapor content and unstable stratification. The development of deep convection and its distance to the tropical disturbance center can be used as an observation criterion for whether the tropical disturbance can develop into typhoon in the next 48 hours. Intertropical convergence is the dominant background circulation of typhoon formation in the South China Sea, and south-west monsoon or easterly wave are also main large-scale circulation. The center of typhoon disturbance is often in the transition zone of the vertical shear, where the vertical shear of the north side of the disturbance becomes smaller and the vertical shear of the south side becomes larger. Sometimes the disturbance center is slightly inclined to the weak vertical shear center. As a whole, there is no significant correlation between wind vertical shear and typhoon disturbance development. The center of tropical disturbance generally coincides with the center of vertical vorticity, and the center of vertical vorticity could be considered as a physical quantity representing the strength of disturbance itself. Furthermore, it is difficult to define the development of the vertical vorticity as an indicator to characterize the development trend of disturbance, while the Okubo-Weiss (OW) index is a good indicator for the development of disturbance and the determination of the disturbance location. In the process of typhoon disturbance development, there is a potential vortex column running through the whole troposphere near the disturbance center. Within the potential vortex column near the disturbance center, the interaction between lower disturbance and the potential vortex in middle and low layer is beneficial to the development of typhoon disturbance.
    • FullText(HTML)
    References(44)

  • Fig. 1  The inter-annual variation(a) and monthly variation(b) of the number of typhoon in the South China Sea

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 2  The infrared cloud image of geostationary satellite GMS at 0800 BT 23 Sep 2002 for Typhoon Mekkhala(a) and the infrared cloud image of geostationary satellite GOE at 0200 BT 9 Jun 2004 for Typhoon Chanthu(b) in the South China Sea 48 hours before typhoon formation

    ( denotes the center of tropical disturbance, the circle with diameter 1.5 degree denotes the area of vast deep convection closest to the disturbance center)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 3  The spatial distribution of the first 3 eigenvectors of wind field near the disturbance center at 850 hPa and 200 hPa 48 hours before typhoon formation in the South China Sea

    ( denotes the disturbance center)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 4  The sea surface temperature(the contour, unit:℃, the red one is 26.5℃) and the convective potential energy(the shaded) 48 hours before typhoon formation for Typhoon Haima in 2011(a) and Typhoon Haitang in 2011(b) in the South China Sea

    (the solid circle and red connector denotes the disturbance track inner 48 hours prior to typhoon formation, the black solid circle denotes the position of disturbance center at 48 hours before typhoon formation, the typhoon symbol is the location for typhoon formation)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 5  The box diagram for the time evolution of the sea surface temperature(a) and convective potential energy(b) of the disturbance center inner 48 hours prior to typhoon formation with the box diagram for the water vapor content of the disturbance center from sea-level surface to 300 hPa along the track of the disturbance 48 hours before typhoon formation(c) and at the time of typhoon formation(d)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 6  The atmospheric precipitable water(the shaded) and relative humidity at 600 hPa(the contour, unit:%) 48 hours before typhoon formation(a) and the time of typhoon formation(b) for Typhoon Haima in 2011(the others same as in Fig. 4)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 7  The streamline at 850 hPa(the black) and 200 hPa(the green) 48 hours before typhoon formation for Typhoon Haima in 2011(a), the streamline of the wind vertical shear and the wind shear amplitude(the shaded) between 200 hPa and 850 hPa 48 hours before typhoon formation for Typhoon Haima in 2011(b), the streamline of the wind vertical shear(black line) and the wind shear amplitude(the shaded) between 200 hPa and 850 hPa 48 hours before typhoon formation for Typhoon Herbert in 1980(c)

    (the others same as in Fig. 4)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 8  The box diagram for the wind shear amplitude change near the disturbance center inner 48 hours prior to typhoon formation(a) and the box diagram for the wind shear amplitude near the disturbance center along the track of the disturbance 48 hours before typhoon formation(b)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 9  The box diagram for the vertical vorticity change of the disturbance center at 850 hPa inner 48 hours prior to typhoon formation(a) and the disturbance center at 850 hPa along the track of the disturbance 48 hours before typhoon formation(b)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 10  The box diagram for the time evolution of OW index of the disturbance center at 850 hPa(a) and 500 hPa(b) inner 48 hours prior to typhoon formation with the change of OW index of the disturbance center along the track of the disturbance 48 hours before typhoon formation at 850 hPa(c) and 500 hPa(d)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 11  The zonal distribution of potential vortices(unit:10-6 m2·K·s-1·kg-1) and the vertical velocity(unit:Pa·s-1) on the isobaric surface of the disturbance center during typhoon formation at the time of 48 hours before typhoon formation and the time of typhoon formation

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 12  The zonal distribution of the vertical velocity on the isobaric surface of the disturbance center during typhoon formation at the time of 48 hours before typhoon formation(a) and the time of typhoon formation(b) of 30 typhoon cases

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Table  1  The variance contribution and the cumulative variance contribution of the first 8 eigenvectors of combined EOF analysis of u and v at 850 hPa and 200 hPa 48 hours before typhoon formation in the South China Sea

    贡献率 特征向量
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
    方差贡献率/% 57.2 9.2 5.4 3.2 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.1
    累计方差贡献率/% 57.2 66.4 71.8 75.0 77.5 79.1 80.5 81.6
    DownLoad: Download CSV
  • [1]
    Chen Lianshou, Ding Yihui. The Conspectus of Western Pacific Typhoon. Beijing: Science Press, 1979.
    [2]
    He Lifu, Chen Shuang, Guo Yunqian. Observation characteristics and synoptic mechanisms of Typhoon Lekima extreme rainfall in 2019. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(5): 513-526. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20200501
    [3]
    Ma Suhong, Wu Yu, Qu Anxiang, et al. Comparative analysis on tropical cyclone numerical forecast errors of T213 and T639 Models. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2012, 23(2): 167-173. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2012.02.005
    [4]
    Ma Suhong, Zhang Jin, Shen Xueshun, et al. The upgrade of GRAPE_TYM in 2016 and its impacts on tropical cyclone prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2018, 29(3): 257-269. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20180301
    [5]
    Qu Anxiang, Ma Suhong, Liu Qingfu, et al. The initialization of tropical cyclones in the NMC global model. Part Ⅰ: Scheme design. Acta Meteor Sinica, 2009, 67(5): 716-726. doi:  10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2009.05.005
    [6]
    Qu Anxiang, Ma Suhong, Li Juan, et al. The initialization of tropical cyclones in the NMC global. Part Ⅱ: Implementation. Acta Meteor Sinica, 2009, 67(5): 727-735. doi:  10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2009.05.006
    [7]
    Qu Anxiang, Ma Suhong, Zhang Jin. Updated experiments of tropical cyclone initialization in global model T639. Meteorological Monthly, 2016, 42(6): 664-673. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201606002.htm
    [8]
    Wu Yu, Ma Suhong, Xiao Tiangui, et al. Error analysis of the numerical value forecast for tropical cyclone Paths with the T213L31 Model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 22(2): 182-193. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2011.02.007
    [9]
    Gao Shuanzhu, Dong Lin, Xu Yinglong, et al. Analysis of the characters and forecast difficulties of typhoons in Western North Pacific in 2016. Meteorological Monthly, 2018, 44(2): 284-293. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201802008.htm
    [10]
    Charney J G, Eliassen A. On the growth of the hurricane depression. J Atmos Sci, 1964, 21(1): 68-75. doi:  10.1175/1520-0469(1964)021<0068:OTGOTH>2.0.CO;2
    [11]
    Emanuel K A. An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclone. Part Ⅰ: Steady state maintenance. J Atmos Sci, 1986, 43: 585-604. doi:  10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<0585:AASITF>2.0.CO;2
    [12]
    Emanuel K A, Neelin J D, Bretherton C S. On large-scale circulation in convection atmospheres. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc, 1994, 120: 1111-1144. doi:  10.1002/qj.49712051902
    [13]
    Wei Youxian, Wang Yintong, Guo Xiuying, et al. Preliminary Research on the development of typhoon over the South China Sea. Acta Meteor Sinica, 1965, 35(2): 148-154. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB196502004.htm
    [14]
    Peng Jinquan, Liang Jingping, Huang Peiling. A preliminary analysis on contributing factors to the development of typhoon over coastal waters of South China Sea. Tropic Oceanology, 1987, 6(4): 47-54.
    [15]
    Lin Xiaoneng, Song Ping. Structural analysis of typhoon in the South China Sea in summer. Marine Forecasts, 1992, 9(1): 41-46. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HYYB199201005.htm
    [16]
    Duan Zhaoxia, Su Baixing. Comprehensive analysis of typhoon (9902) in the South China Sea. Guangdong Meteorology, 2000(Suppl Ⅰ): 35-37. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GDCX2000S1013.htm
    [17]
    Luo Qiuhong, Li Tianran, He Xiajiang. Relationship of OLR and development of tropical cyclone over South China Sea. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2004, 15(1): 81-87. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2004.01.010
    [18]
    Zhao Shanshan, Gao Ge, Sun Xuguang, et al. Climatological characteristics of tropical cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2009, 20(5): 555-563. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2009.05.006
    [19]
    Ye Tingting. A Study to Several Climatological Characteristic of Tropical Cyclones from South China Sea. Nanjing: Nanjing University, 2010.
    [20]
    Yang Yaxin. Occurrence regularity of tropical cyclone in South China Sea. Journal of Shanghai Maritime University, 2005, 26(4): 16-19. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1672-9498.2005.04.004
    [21]
    Wu Disheng, Zhao Xue, Feng Weizhong, et al. The statistical analysis to the local harmful typhoon of South China Sea. Tropical Meteorology, 2005, 21(3): 300-314. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX200503010.htm
    [22]
    Lee C S. Observational analysis of tropical cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific. Part Ⅰ: Structure evolution of cloud clusters. J Atmos Sci, 1989, 46(16): 2580-2598. doi:  10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<2580:OAOTCI>2.0.CO;2
    [23]
    Fu B, Peng M S, Li T. Developing versus nondeveloping disturbances for tropical cyclone formation. Part Ⅱ: Western North Pacific. Mon Wea Rev, 2012, 140(4): 1067-1080. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012MWRv..140.1067F
    [24]
    Peng Zhiban, Liu Jianwen, Guo Hu, et al. Study and Application of Strong Convective Weather Abroad. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2001: 89-95.
    [25]
    Qian Weimiao, Luo Yali, Zhang Renhe, et al. The heavy rainfall event leading to the large debris flow at Zhouqu. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2011, 2(4): 385-397. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2011.04.001
    [26]
    Wang Hong, Li Ying, Song Lili, et al. Comparison of characteristics and environmental factors of thunderstorm gales over the Sichuan-Tibet Region. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2020, 31(4): 435-446. doi:  10.11898/1001-7313.20200406
    [27]
    Sun Jisong, Tao Zuyu. Some essential issues connected with sever convective weather analysis and forecast. Meteorological Monthly, 2012, 38(2): 164-173. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201202007.htm
    [28]
    Moncrieff M, Miller M J. The dynamics and simulation of tropical cumulonimbus and squall lines. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc, 1976, 102: 373-394. doi:  10.1002/qj.49710243208
    [29]
    Ghil M, Alien M R, Dettinger M D, et al. Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Rev Geophys, 2002, 40(1): 1-41.
    [30]
    Wei Fengying. Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology(2nd ed). Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007: 105-113.
    [31]
    Dunkerton T J, Montgomery M T, Wang Z. Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer: Easterly waves. Atmos Chem Phys, 2009, 9(15): 5587-5646. doi:  10.5194/acp-9-5587-2009
    [32]
    Tory K J, Dare R A, Davidson N E, et al. The importance of low-deformation vorticity in tropical cyclone formation. Atmos Chem Phys, 2013, 13(4): 2115-2132. doi:  10.5194/acp-13-2115-2013
    [33]
    Montgomery M T, Lussier Ⅲ L L, Moore R W, et al. The genesis of Typhoon Nuri as observed during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008(TCS-08) Field Experiment. Part 1: The role of the easterly wave critical layer. Atmos Chem Phys, 2010, 10: 9879-9900. doi:  10.5194/acp-10-9879-2010
    [34]
    Montgomery M T, Smith R K. The genesis of Typhoon Nuri as observed during the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008(TCS08) Field Experiment. Part 2: Observations of the convective environment. Atmos Chem Phys, 2012, 12: 4001-4009. doi:  10.5194/acp-12-4001-2012
    [35]
    Ge X Y, Li T, Melinda S P. Tropical cyclone genesis efficiency: Mid-level versus bottom vortex. Tropical Meteorology, 2013, 19(3): 197-213. http://www.cqvip.com/QK/85390X/20133/1002102656.html
    [36]
    Chen Lianshou. The evolution on research and operational forecasting techniques of tropical cyclones. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2006, 17(6): 672-681. doi:  10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2006.06.005
    [37]
    Dvorak V F. Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis Using Satellite Data//NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 11, 1984.
    [38]
    Kishimoto K, Nishigaki T, Nishimura S, et al. Comparative Study on Organized Convective Cloud Systems Detected through Early Stage Dvorak Analysis and Tropical Cyclones in Early Developing Stage in the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea//Technical Review No. 9, RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center, 2007.
    [39]
    Chen Y S, Yau M K. Asymmetric structure in a simulated landfalling hurricane. J Atmos Sci, 2003, 60(18): 2293-2312. http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/80016120179
    [40]
    Moller J D, Shapiro L J. Balanced contributions to the intensification of hurricane opal as diagnosed from a GFDL model forecast. Mon Wea Rev, 2002, 130(7): 1866-1881. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<1866:BCTTIO>2.0.CO;2
    [41]
    Shapiro L J, Franklin J L. Potential vorticity in hurricane Gloria. Mon Wea Rev, 1995, 123(5): 1465-1475. doi:  10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<1465:PVIHG>2.0.CO;2
    [42]
    Jing Xi, He Wenbin, Bi Xu, et al. Analysis of the abrupt rainstorm in North Shaanxi in relation to typhoon far away. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2005, 16(5): 655-662. http://qikan.camscma.cn/article/id/20050584
    [43]
    Sun Li, Dong Wei, Yao Ming, et al. A diagnostic analysis of the causes of the torrential rain and precipitation asymmetric distribution of Typhoon Bolaven(2012). Acta Meteor Sinica, 2015, 73(1): 36-49. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB201501003.htm
    [44]
    Robert A H Jr. Clouds in tropical cyclones. Mon Wea Rev, 2010, 138: 293-344. doi:  10.1175/2009MWR2989.1
    • Relative Articles
    • Supplements(0)
    • Cited By
  • 加载中
  • -->

Catalog

    Figures(12)  / Tables(1)

    Get Citation
    PDF
    XML
    Article views (1380) PDF downloads(128) Cited by()
    • Received : 2021-01-28
    • Accepted : 2021-03-10
    • Published : 2021-05-31
    Journal Online
    Contact

    © 2020 Journal of Applied Meteorological Science   京ICP备15006967号-1

    Supported by Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co. Ltd

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return