Vol.33, NO.1, 2022
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Applied Meteorological Science  > 2022  >  33(1): 92-103
Mao Hongdan, Huo Zhiguo, Zhang Lei, et al. Indicator construction and risk assessment of grape waterlogging in the Bohai Rim. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(1): 92-103. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220108.
Citation: Mao Hongdan, Huo Zhiguo, Zhang Lei, et al. Indicator construction and risk assessment of grape waterlogging in the Bohai Rim. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(1): 92-103. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20220108.
shu

Indicator Construction and Risk Assessment of Grape Waterlogging in the Bohai Rim

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220108
  • 1.

    Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

  • 2.

    Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044

  • 3.

    National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

  • Received Date: 2021-05-24
  • Rev Recd Date: 2021-06-30
  • Publish Date: 2022-01-19
    Abstract
  • The viticulture area around the Bohai Bay is the largest grape producing area in China. Waterlogging disaster is a major agricultural meteorological disaster in China, which seriously threatens grape production. Waterlogging indexes are utilized on field crops widely, but most of them can only be evaluated after the end of the growing season, which lacks the timeliness of monitoring and evaluating the process of waterlogging disasters. Taking the main grape producing areas in the Bohai Rim of China as the research object, the waterlogging grade index is constructed based on the daily meteorological data, grape growth stage data and grape waterlogging historical disaster data from 303 meteorological stations in the study area from 1980 to 2019. In the process of index construction, the influence of previous water surplus and deficit status on the current waterlogging process is fully considered, and the climate adaptability of crops in a certain place is considered. The daily waterlogging index of grapes is constructed by referring to the relative humidity index method of crops. Taking historical disaster inversion and disaster process analysis as the main line, Lilliefors test of normal distribution and t-distribution interval estimation method are used to construct the grape waterlogging disaster grade index system suitable for the main grape producing areas around the Bohai Bay, starting from the duration and intensity of waterlogging disaster. Based on the classification index of grape waterlogging disasters constructed above, the frequency of waterlogging disasters at each site in the Bohai Rim from 1980 to 2019 is counted, and the probability of disasters at each site is obtained by using information diffusion theory. Considering the probability and intensity of waterlogging disasters of each grade, the risk index of grape waterlogging in each station in the region is calculated. The results show that the occurrence range of waterlogging disaster in the same growth period of grape decreases with the increase of the disaster level, while the occurrence range of severe waterlogging disaster in different growth periods gradually increases with the advancement of development process. The risk of grape waterlogging is relatively low during the period of bud-shoot growth and flowering and fruit-setting, while the high-risk period of grape waterlogging is the period of fruit expansion and coloring and maturity. The high-risk areas of grape waterlogging disaster are mainly located in the southeast of Shandong Province, the southeast of Liaoning Province and the northeast of Hebei Province.
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  • Fig. 1  Distribution of weather stations in target area

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    Fig. 2  Identification rate of grape disaster samples under different M5i threshold

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    Fig. 3  The samples percentage of grape waterlogging disasters of different grades in the total samples (M5i≥3)

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    Fig. 4  Station ratio of grape waterlogging disaster probability at different grades during different growth stages

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    Fig. 5  Spatial distribution of grape waterlogging disaster risk index

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    Table  1  90% confidence interval of the mean value of the cumulative M5i in the process of different duration during grape growth stages

    发育阶段 90%置信区间
    3~4 d 5~6 d 7 d及以上
    萌芽-新梢生长期 12.8~32.0 27.6~74.3 41.6~98.8
    开花坐果期 12.9~32.4 25.5~68.9 42.6~116.9
    果实膨大期 13.2~33.7 25.9~71.7 44.0~128.5
    着色成熟期 13.5~36.1 28.7~85.9 45.8~153.7
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    Table  2  The grape waterlogging disaster level indicators during different growth stages

    发育阶段 M5i≥3持续日数/d M5i逐日累加值
    轻度涝渍 中度涝渍 重度涝渍
    萌芽-新梢生长期 3~4 [13, 32] 大于32
    5~6 [13, 28) [28, 74] 大于74
    不小于7 [28, 42] 大于42
    开花坐果期 3~4 [13, 32] 大于32
    5~6 [13, 26) [26, 69] 大于69
    不小于7 [26, 43] 大于43
    果实膨大期 3~4 [13, 34] 大于34
    5~6 [13, 26) [26, 72] 大于72
    不小于7 [26, 44] 大于44
    着色成熟期 3~4 [14, 36] 大于36
    5~6 [14, 29) [29, 86] 大于86
    不小于7 [29, 46] 大于46
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    Table  3  Verification of grape waterlogging disaster indicators

    发生时间 发生地点 发育阶段 灾情描述 M5i≥3持续日数/d M5i≥3逐日累加值 指标计算等级 符合程度
    2012-04-25 庄河 萌芽-新梢生长期 绝收 9 127 重 完全符合
    1991-06-10 北京 开花坐果期 受渍，部分绝收 5 43 中 完全符合
    2011-06-26 威海 开花坐果期 大量落果，减产 8 97 重 完全符合
    1981-07-25 熊岳 果实膨大期 严重受渍 4 40 中 完全符合
    1985-07-28 密云 果实膨大期 冲走果树 4 24 轻 不符合
    1985-07-20 海城 果实膨大期 大量减产 8 103 重 完全符合
    1990-07-15 塘沽 果实膨大期 部分受灾 3 17 轻 完全符合
    1993-07-12 章丘 果实膨大期 部分无收 6 46 中 完全符合
    1994-07-12 朝阳 果实膨大期 大面积减产 7 87 重 完全符合
    2004-07-16 定陶 果实膨大期 成灾 5 39 中 完全符合
    2008-07-18 威海 果实膨大期 受涝严重，绝收 10 98 重 完全符合
    2008-07-18 青岛 果实膨大期 绝收 10 127 重 完全符合
    2012-07-25 北京 果实膨大期 部分受灾 4 19 轻 完全符合
    1988-08-08 北京 着色成熟期 严重受渍 5 39 中 完全符合
    1992-08-31 威海 着色成熟期 成灾 5 70 中 完全符合
    1992-09-01 大连 着色成熟期 大量减产 5 132 重 完全符合
    1994-08-05 昌黎 着色成熟期 冲毁，绝收 5 87 重 完全符合
    1994-08-05 青龙 着色成熟期 绝收 6 72 中 基本符合
    1996-08-04 石家庄 着色成熟期 大量减产 9 219 重 完全符合
    1997-08-01 承德 着色成熟期 大面积绝收 5 43 中 基本符合
    1997-08-18 日照 着色成熟期 部分绝收 5 65 中 完全符合
    1997-08-18 莒县 着色成熟期 绝收 6 112 重 完全符合
    1997-08-18 威海 着色成熟期 大面积减产 6 175 重 完全符合
    2000-08-28 青岛 着色成熟期 部分绝收 5 42 中 完全符合
    2008-08-01 锦州 着色成熟期 受灾 4 27 轻 完全符合
    2011-08-08 栖霞 着色成熟期 严重落果 3 20 轻 不符合
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    • Received : 2021-05-24
    • Accepted : 2021-06-30
    • Published : 2022-01-19
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