Future Projection of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Risk in Southwest China Based on CMIP6 Models

Huang Xiaoyuan; Li Xiehui

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20220209

Vol.33, NO.2, 2022

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Huang Xiaoyuan, Li Xiehui. Future projection of rainstorm and flood disaster risk in Southwest China based on CMIP6 models. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(2): 231-243. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220209.

Citation:

Huang Xiaoyuan, Li Xiehui. Future projection of rainstorm and flood disaster risk in Southwest China based on CMIP6 models. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(2): 231-243. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220209.

Huang Xiaoyuan, Li Xiehui. Future projection of rainstorm and flood disaster risk in Southwest China based on CMIP6 models. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(2): 231-243. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220209.

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Future Projection of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Risk in Southwest China Based on CMIP6 Models

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220209

Huang Xiaoyuan^{1, 2},
Li Xiehui^{1
,
,}

1.
School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225
2.
College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000

Received Date: 2021-09-27
Rev Recd Date: 2022-01-21
Publish Date: 2022-03-31

Abstract

Abstract

Under the background of global warming and frequent extreme weather and climate events, the occurrence of rainstorm and flood disasters in Southwest China continues to increase, causing great losses to social economy and people's lives and property. In order to project the characteristics of future rainstorm and flood disaster risk in Southwest China, 5 CMIP6 models and 5 extreme precipitation indices are selected to construct a risk assessment model, combined with topographic factors, socio-economic data and percentage of cultivated land area, by comprehensively considering disastrous factors and vulnerability. The rainstorm and flood disaster risks are mainly assessed for the baseline period (1995-2014), projected under three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for two future periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060), and comparatively analyzed. The results show that the simulation performance of EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg on the selected 5 extreme precipitation indices is excellent, and the performance of un-equal weighted aggregation (UEWA-5) is better than equal weighted aggregation (EWA-5). According to the prediction results, 5 extreme precipitation indices are high in western Yunnan, northeastern Guangxi, and the western margin of Sichuan Basin. Higher social vulnerability and radiation forcing lead to greater extreme precipitation index. From the baseline period to the next two periods, the extreme precipitation indices and risk of disastrous factors show an increasing trend. The high vulnerability areas are distributed in the economically and agriculturally developed regional central cities and the change of vulnerability is not obvious under different scenarios. The medium-high risk areas and high risk areas of rainstorm and flood disasters are mainly distributed in Chengdu City of Sichuan, the center of Chongqing and western Sichuan Basin, Kunming City of Yunnan, Guilin City and south-central parts of Guangxi. The medium-high risk areas and high risk areas in Southwest China increase with time from the base period to the far future, especially under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.
- rainstorm and flood;
- disaster risk;
- extreme precipitation index;
- CMIP6 models;
- future projection;
- Southwest

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References(42)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Location and topography of the target area

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Fig. 2 Taylor diagrams of extreme precipitation indices for 5 CMIP6 models(a) and model ensembles(b) in Southwest China during 1995-2014

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Fig. 3 Standardized series of 5 extreme precipitation indices in Southwest China during 1995-2014

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Fig. 4 Time series of 5 extreme precipitation indices in Southwest China under 3 scenarios during 2 future periods

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Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of R50 in Southwest China under 3 scenarios during the base period and 2 future periods

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Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of disaster risk caused by rainstorm and flood in Southwest China under 3 scenarios during 2 future periods

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Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of vulnerability of disaster-bearing body in Southwest China under 3 scenarios during 2 future periods

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Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of integrated risk of rainstorm and flood disaster in Southwest China under 3 scenarios during the base period and 2 future periods

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Table 1 Information of 5 models in CMIP6

模式名称	国家和地区	机构	格点数
BCC-CSM2-MR	中国	BCC	160×320
EC-Earth3	欧洲	EC	256×512
EC-Earth3-Veg	欧洲	EC	256×512
GFDL-ESM4	美国	NOAA-GFDL	180×288
MPI-ESM1-2-HR	德国	MPI-M	192×384

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Table 2 Definitions of 5 extreme precipitation indices

指数	英文缩写	定义	单位
大雨日数	R20	日降水量不小于20 mm的日数	d
暴雨日数	R50	日降水量不小于50 mm的日数	d
5 d最大降水量	RX5day	最大连续5 d降水量	mm
年降水量	PRCPTOT	年降水量	mm
降水强度	SDII	湿日总降水量/湿日日数	mm·d^-1

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Table 3 Ranking of S-value for 5 models in CMIP6

模式	5个极端降水指数S值排名					综合排名
模式	R20	R50	RX5day	PRCPTOT	SDII	综合排名
BCC-CSM2-MR	3	3	4	3	4	3
EC-Earth3	2	2	2	2	2	2
EC-Earth3-Veg	1	1	1	1	1	1
GFDL-ESM4	4	4	5	5	3	4
MPI-ESM1-2-HR	5	5	3	4	5	5

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Table 4 Area proportion of comprehensive risk zone of rainstorm and flood disaster in Southwest China (unit: %)

情景	时期	暴雨洪涝灾害风险等级
情景	时期	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ	Ⅴ
	基准期	25.85	53.68	13.59	5.85	1.02
SSP1-2.6	近期	22.70	54.26	14.97	6.99	1.08
SSP1-2.6	远期	22.50	54.28	14.46	7.46	1.29
SSP2-4.5	近期	21.61	55.12	14.02	8.02	1.24
SSP2-4.5	远期	21.46	53.16	14.58	8.92	1.88
SSP5-8.5	近期	22.04	54.60	14.38	7.81	1.17
SSP5-8.5	远期	21.36	53.42	14.75	8.73	1.73

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