Upper Wind Difference Characteristics and Forecast Within 3.5 Hours Before and After Rocket Launch

Cheng Huhua; Cheng Wei; Shen Hongbiao; Zhao Liang

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20220402

Vol.33, NO.4, 2022

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Cheng Huhua, Cheng Wei, Shen Hongbiao, et al. Upper wind difference characteristics and forecast within 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(4): 400-413. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220402.

Citation:

Cheng Huhua, Cheng Wei, Shen Hongbiao, et al. Upper wind difference characteristics and forecast within 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(4): 400-413. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220402.

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Upper Wind Difference Characteristics and Forecast Within 3.5 Hours Before and After Rocket Launch

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220402

1.
63729 Troops of the PLA, Taiyuan 030027
2.
Beijing Institute of the Applied Meteorology, Beijing 100029
3.
32018 Troops of the PLA, Beijing 100094
4.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029

Received Date: 2022-02-17
Rev Recd Date: 2022-04-29
Publish Date: 2022-07-13

Abstract

Abstract

The upper wind has a major impact on the safety of the launch vehicle, and the wind speed 3 hours before launching is a determinant for the eventual schedule. If the maximum aerodynamic load generated by the upper wind does not exceed the threshold, the rocket can be launched as planned, otherwise it will be considered to postpone the launch. The deviation of the upper wind 3 hours before and at the launch time should be investigated. Taking the upper wind dataset with an interval of 3.5 hours (December 2014 to December 2020) to analyze the wind difference, and a forecast model for the wind of 0.5 hours after the launch is established using WRF model and the wind data of 3 hours before the launch. It shows that the characteristics of upper wind speed and direction difference within 3.5 hours are related to altitude, season, and the average upper wind speed. Although the maximum wind speed deviation range is -24.00-26.00 m·s^-1, for two-thirds of the cases the deviation is within 10 m·s^-1, which mainly occur in the middle and upper troposphere with altitude of [6.5 km, 11.5 km). The absolute value of the maximum wind direction deviation range is 10.00°-180°, mainly in the [30°, 60°) interval, and this mostly occurs in the middle and lower troposphere with altitude of [1.5 km, 6.5 km). The average absolute deviation of the upper wind speed within 3.5 hours shows an increasing trend with the increase of average upper wind speed 3 hours before the launch, but the relative error and the wind direction deviation decreases, indicating that when the upper wind is strong, the wind direction is less prone to short-term changes. The upper wind deviation within 3.5 hours varies with the seasons, for example, the absolute deviation of winter wind speed is greater than that of summer, but the absolute deviation of wind direction in winter is smaller than that of summer. Using the forecast model results of wind 0.5 hours after the launch can help to avoid the risk of rocket launch in advance.
- launch vehicle;
- upper wind speed changes;
- upper wind direction change;
- modeling forecast

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Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Box plot of the maximum wind speed deviation(a) and corresponding height(b) within 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch

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Fig. 2 Box plot of the maximum absolute wind direction deviation(a) and corresponding height(b) within 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch

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Fig. 3 Occupancy of wind speed deviation(a), absolute deviation(b), absolute relative error(c) and absolute wind direction deviation(d) at different height within 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch

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Fig. 4 Variation of wind speed deviation(a), absolute deviation(b), absolute relative error(c) and absolute wind direction deviation(d) with V₁ within 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch

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Fig. 5 Variation of wind speed deviation(a), absolute deviation(b), absolute relative error(c) and absolute wind direction deviation(d) with height for sample 1-sample 5 within 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch

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Fig. 6 Variation of wind speed deviation(a), absolute deviation(b), absolute relative error(c) and absolute wind direction deviation(d) with height within 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch in different seasons

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Fig. 7 Variation of V₁ and V₂ corresponding to the largest positive deviation(a), the second largest positive deviation(b), the largest negative deviation(c) and the second largest negative deviation(d) of wind speed within 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch

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Fig. 8 Variation of V₁, V₂ and V_f corresponding to the largest positive deviation(a), the second largest positive deviation(b), the largest negative deviation(c) and the second largest negative deviation(d) of wind speed within 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch

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Fig. 9 Variation of deviation(a), absolute deviation(b), absolute relative error(c), correlation coefficient(d) with height for 20% samples of V₁ and V_f with the largest difference with 3.5 hours before and after rocket launch

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Table 1 Mathematical statistics between V₁, V_f and V₂ of data 1 to data 5

资料	高空风	风速偏差/(m·s^-1)	风速绝对偏差/(m·s^-1)	风速相对误差绝对值/%	与V₂相关系数
1	V₁	-0.13	2.03	30.27	0.66
1	V_f	0.15	1.94	29.51	0.73
2	V₁	-0.04	2.13	21.04	0.75
2	V_f	0.05	1.93	20.46	0.83
3	V₁	-0.89	2.56	20.48	0.81
3	V_f	-0.14	2.17	19.64	0.89
4	V₁	-0.88	3.52	19.00	0.76
4	V_f	-0.63	2.84	16.29	0.84
5	V₁	0.50	4.51	25.39	0.75
5	V_f	-0.22	3.07	20.56	0.79

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