Key Technologies of CMA-MESO and Application to Operational Forecast

Huang Liping; Deng Liantang; Wang Ruichun; Zhuang Zhaorong; Jiang Yuan; Xu Zhifang; Zhu Lijuan; Zhang Jin; Wang Lili; Yu Fei; Sun Qin; Wang Dan; Wang Hao; Zhou Feifei; Xu Guoqiang

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20220601

Vol.33, NO.6, 2022

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2022 > 33(6): 641-654

Huang Liping, Deng Liantang, Wang Ruichun, et al. Key technologies of CMA-MESO and application to operational forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(6): 641-654. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220601.

Citation:

Huang Liping, Deng Liantang, Wang Ruichun, et al. Key technologies of CMA-MESO and application to operational forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(6): 641-654. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220601.

Huang Liping, Deng Liantang, Wang Ruichun, et al. Key technologies of CMA-MESO and application to operational forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(6): 641-654. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220601.

Citation:

Huang Liping, Deng Liantang, Wang Ruichun, et al. Key technologies of CMA-MESO and application to operational forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(6): 641-654. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220601.

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Key Technologies of CMA-MESO and Application to Operational Forecast

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220601

CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2022-08-01
Rev Recd Date: 2022-09-06

Available Online: 2022-11-21

Publish Date: 2022-11-17

Abstract

Abstract

To meet the requirement of numerical weather prediction for local severe convective weather, especially disastrous weather and extreme weather events, based on GRAPES-MESO 10 km system, many works have been completed, which include improving the calculation accuracy and stability of the model dynamic framework, selecting and testing the physical parameterization schemes suitable for high-resolution model, establishing a national radar quality control preprocess system, applying the national (SA/SB/CB) three-dimensional network mosaic data through the cloud analysis system, establishing a convective resolvable assimilation system and land surface data assimilation system for small and medium-scale systems, implementing the assimilation and application of unconventional local dense data such as radar radial wind, wind profile radar, FY-4A imager emissivity, satellite cloud motion wind, satellite GNSSRO, surface precipitation and the near surface data, and developing the rapid cycle technology. By integrating all the jobs mentioned above, the nationwide rapid analysis and forecast system CMA-MESO (GRAPES-MESO 3 km)has been established and put into operational run since June 2020 with 3 km horizontal resolution and 3 h time interval. The operational verification results in flood season from June to September of 2020 show that the forecasts of near surface elements (precipitation, 2 m temperature and 10 m wind) of CMA-MESO forecast surpass the results of GRAPES-MESO 10 km system, and the threat score for 3 h accumulated precipitation forecast is outstanding. The threat score for 24 h accumulated precipitation of CMA-MESO is slightly worse than the result of ECMWF, but the threat score for 3 h accumulated precipitation forecast is significantly better. For the precipitation exceeding 10.0 mm, CMA-MESO performs better than ECMWF within all the lead times, and the advantages are more obvious with the increase of precipitation threshold. Compared to ECMWF, CMA-MESO shows more obvious advantages on daytime forecast. For 25 mm precipitation threshold, the improvement rate exceeds 50% in most of the daytime and reaches about 100% in the later stage of forecast. The spatial distribution of mean 24 h accumulated precipitation predicted by CMA-MESO and ECMWF models is close to the observation, but the amount predicted by CMA-MESO is slightly larger. The frequency and intensity of precipitation simulated by CMA-MESO, which can characterize the ability of model to predict the spatial-temporal fine characteristics of precipitation, are consistent with observation in terms of both horizontal distribution and magnitude. The comprehensive performance of CMA-MESO in flood season in China exceeds that of ECMWF fine grid model.
- CMA-MESO;
- rapid analysis and forecast system;
- local dense data application;
- kilometer scale variational framework;
- high-resolution model

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References(45)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Horizontal correlation length changes with height for stream function,unbalanced velocity potential,Exner pressure variable,zonal wind,meridional wind, temperature and surface pressure

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Fig. 2 Threat score for 3 h accumulated precipitation forecast for 5 mm threshold from 1 Jun to 31 Aug in 2019

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Fig. 3 Threat score for 6 h accumulated precipitation by GRAPES-MESO 10 km and CMA-MESO from Mar to Aug 2018

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Fig. 4 Verification of 2 m temperature and 10 m wind by GRAPES-MESO 10 km and CMA-MESO from Mar to Aug in 2018

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Fig. 5 Zonal wind analysis increment at model level 10 in GRAPES_3DVAR by original(a) and improved(b) background error covariance at 0000 UTC 27 Jul 2020

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Fig. 6 Scores for 24 h accumulated precipitation by CMA-MESO from Jun to Sep in 2019

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Fig. 7 Surface pressure tendency starting from 0600 UTC 26 Jun 2020

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图 8 2020年6—9月CMA-MESO和GRAPES-MESO 10 km业务预报检验

(a)逐3 h累积降水TS评分，(b)2 m温度均方根误差

Fig. 8 Threat score for 3 h accumulated precipitation(a) and root mean square error for 2 m temperature(b) by CMA-MESO and GRAPES-MESO 10 km from Jun to Sep 2020

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图 9 2020年6－9月CMA-MESO和ECMWF的3 h累积降水预报TS评分

(a)0.1 mm, 1.0 mm, 5.0 mm, (b)10 mm, 25 mm, 50 mm

Fig. 9 Threat score for 3 h accumulated precipitation by CMA-MESO and ECMWF from Jun to Sep 2020

(a)0.1 mm, 1.0 mm, 5.0 mm, (b)10 mm, 25 mm, 50 mm

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Fig. 10 Scores for 3 h accumulated precipitation (no less than 25 mm) by CMA-MESO and ECMWF from Jun to Sep in 2020

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图 11 2020年6—9月观测与模式预报的24 h平均降水量、降水频次以及降水强度分布

(a)观测降水量，(b)ECMWF预报降水量，(c)CMA-MESO预报降水量，(d)观测降水频次，(e)ECMWF预报降水频次，(f)CMA-MESO预报降水频次(g)观测降水强度，(h)ECMWF预报降水强度，(i)CMA-MESO预报降水强度

Fig. 11 Averaged 24 h precipitation, frequency and intensity of observation and forecast by ECMWF and CMA-MESO from Jun to Sep 2020

(a)observed precipitation,(b)precipitation by ECMWF, (c)precipitation by CMA-MESO, (d)observed frequency, (e)frequency by ECMWF, (f)frequency by CMA-MESO, (g)observed intensity, (h)intensity by ECMWF, (i)intensity by CMA-MESO

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Table 1 Observations assimilated in the CMA-MESO system

资料种类	观测类型	同化变量
常规观测	探空报	u和v分量、温度、相对湿度
	地面报	u和v分量、地表气压、相对湿度、小时降水量
	船舶报	u和v分量、地表气压、相对湿度
	浮标报	u和v分量
	飞机报	u和v分量、温度
雷达	多普勒天气雷达	VAD风、径向风、反射率因子
雷达	风廓线雷达	u和v分量
卫星	云导风(FY-2G, HIMAWARI-8)	u和v分量
	无线电掩星(GNSSRO) (COSMIC-1, Metop-A, B, FY-3C, D)	折射率
	FY-4A成像仪(AGRI)	辐射率
	FY-2G反演资料	云总量、黑体亮度温度
其他非常规观测	GPS大气水汽含量(GPSPW)	可降水量

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