Verification of Rainstorm Based on Numerical Model About CMA-TYM and SCMOC in Nenjiang Basin

Chang Yu; Wen Jianwei; Yang Xuefeng; Gao Shaoxin; Yu Putian

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20230203

Vol.34, NO.2, 2023

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2023 > 34(2): 154-165

Chang Yu, Wen Jianwei, Yang Xuefeng, et al. Verification of rainstorm based on numerical model about CMA-TYM and SCMOC in Nenjiang Basin. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(2): 154-165. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230203.

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Chang Yu, Wen Jianwei, Yang Xuefeng, et al. Verification of rainstorm based on numerical model about CMA-TYM and SCMOC in Nenjiang Basin. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(2): 154-165. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230203.

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Verification of Rainstorm Based on Numerical Model About CMA-TYM and SCMOC in Nenjiang Basin

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230203

1.
Hulun Buir Meteorological Bureau of Inner Mongolia, Hulun Buir 021008
2.
Meteorological Information Center of Inner Monglia, Hohhot 010051

Received Date: 2022-11-02
Rev Recd Date: 2023-01-10
Publish Date: 2023-03-31

Abstract

Abstract

The Nenjiang is the north source of the Songhua River. Nenjiang Basin is an important commodity grain base in China. The change of water level in Nenjiang Basin during the flood season is closely related to the precipitation, especially the continuous rainstorm and heavy rainstorm are very easy to cause flood disaster. For example, Nenjiang Basin is affected by the continuous rainstorm and heavy rainstorm weather on 18 July 2021, the Yong'an Reservoir bursted, the Xin'an Reservoir collapsed, residents across the towns are hit by the flood disaster. The flood in Nenjiang Basin has great impacts on the national economy and people's lives. Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of rainstorm prediction in Nenjiang Basin, the deviation between CMA-TYM and SCMOC precipitation products are analyzed from the aspects of rainstorm area and intensity, and the correction ability is improved, which has certain practical significance for agricultural production, reservoir storage, and water resource allocation in the basin. At the same time, it also provides a strong guarantee for forecast warning, people's lives and property security, and sustainable healthy development of social. Nine rainstorm days are selected in 2021, using merged precipitation, based on numerical model products by CMA-TYM and SCMOC, the contiguous rain area (CRA) technique is used to test 24 h precipitation predicted at 2000 BT. The results show that maximum precipitation position deviation of rainstorm days predicted by CMA-TYM and SCMOC are west and north, but precipitation location of rainstorm days tested by CRA technique are west, the former is north, the latter is slightly south. SCMOC prediction preforms better than CMA-TYM. Error analysis show that, it is smaller than the precipitation observation that maximum precipitation value and average precipitation of observed rainstorm area predicted by CMA-TYM and SCMOC, but the grid numbers and area are larger than the observation. On the whole, CMA_TYM forecast is closer to the observation. CRA technique shows that the intensity and pattern of precipitation location predicted by CMA-TYM, location and pattern of precipitation predicted by SCMOC are close to the observation, and it has certain instructive significance.
- rainstorm in Nenjiang Basin;
- products of CMA-TYM and SCMOC;
- the contiguous rain area(CRA) technique

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Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Observed rainstorm area in Nenjiang Basin on 18 Jul 2021 (the red triangle denotes the location of Yong'an Reservoir and Xinfa Reservoir, the blue line denotes the secondorder and the thirdorder river, hereinafter) (a)rainstorm area of merged precipitation (the shaded), (b)CMA-TYM grid data of no less than 50 mm precipitation verified by CRA (the shaded), (c)SCMOC grid data of no less than 50 mm precipitation verified by CRA (the shaded)

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Fig. 2 Rainstorm area in Nenjiang Basin from 17 Jul to 19 Jul in 2021

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Fig. 3 Position deviation of maximum precipitation and minimum displacement deviation of 9 rainstorm days in Nenjiang Basin in 2021 (a)position deviation of maximum precipitation predicted by CMA-TYM, (b)position deviation of maximum precipitation predicted by SCMOC, (c)minimum displacement deviation predicted by CMA-TYM, (d)minimum displacement deviation predicted by SCMOC

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Fig. 4 Comparision of CMA-TYM and SCMOC forecast to observation of 9 rainstorm days in Nenjiang Basin in 2021

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Fig. 5 Error proportion test of 9 rainstorm days by CRA in Nenjiang Basin in 2021

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Fig. 6 Error of maximum precipitation and minimum displacement deviation of 9 rainstorm days predicted by CMA-TYM and SCMOC in Nenjiang Basin in 2021

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Fig. 7 Errors of 9 rainstorm days in Nenjiang Basin in 2021

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Table 1 Rainstorm days in Nenjiang Basin in 2021

暴雨日	日期	实况暴雨落区	24 h最大降水量/mm			500 hPa影响系统
暴雨日	日期	实况暴雨落区	实况	CMA-TYM	SCMOC	500 hPa影响系统
06-14	6月14日	内蒙古呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟，黑龙江齐齐哈尔市，吉林省白城市	128.2	59.9	43.5	槽
06-15	6月15日	内蒙古呼伦贝尔市，黑龙江大兴安岭地区	102.4	108.0	69.4	槽
07-01	7月1日	内蒙古呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟，吉林省白城市	146.0	138.8	62.8	低涡前部
07-14	7月14日	内蒙古呼伦贝尔市，黑龙江大兴安岭地区	105.6	94.7	86.6	槽前部
07-17	7月17日	内蒙古呼伦贝尔市、兴安盟，黑龙江齐齐哈尔市	119.5	38.8	12.8	槽前部
07-18	7月18日	内蒙古呼伦贝尔市，黑龙江齐齐哈尔市、黑河市	153.4	131.7	68.8	东北冷涡
07-19	7月19日	内蒙古呼伦贝尔市，黑龙江齐齐哈尔市、黑河市	140.6	113.1	77.6	东北冷涡
07-26	7月26日	内蒙古兴安盟，黑龙江齐齐哈尔市、大庆市、绥化市、黑河市、伊春市	93.2	127.3	76.2	东北冷涡
07-31	7月31日	内蒙古呼伦贝尔市	104.8	103.7	116.9	东北冷涡

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