Refined Verification of Numerical Forecast of Subtropical High Edge Precipitation in Huanghuai Region

Li Han; Wang Xinmin; Lü Linyi; Ma Yunqi

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20230403

Vol.34, NO.4, 2023

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2023 > 34(4): 413-425

Li Han, Wang Xinmin, Lü Linyi, et al. Refined verification of numerical forecast of subtropical high edge precipitation in Huanghuai Region. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(4): 413-425. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230403.

Citation:

Li Han, Wang Xinmin, Lü Linyi, et al. Refined verification of numerical forecast of subtropical high edge precipitation in Huanghuai Region. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(4): 413-425. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230403.

Citation:

PDF( 6310 KB)

Refined Verification of Numerical Forecast of Subtropical High Edge Precipitation in Huanghuai Region

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230403

Li Han^{1, 2},
Wang Xinmin^{3, 4
,
,},
Lü Linyi^{1, 2},
Ma Yunqi^{1, 2}

1.
Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Safeguard Application Technique, CMA, Zhengzhou 450003
2.
Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Zhengzhou 450003
3.
Xiamen Key Laboratory of Straits Meteorology, Xiamen 361000
4.
Xiamen Meteorological Observatory, Xiamen 361000

Received Date: 2023-04-08
Rev Recd Date: 2023-06-01
Publish Date: 2023-07-31

Abstract

Abstract

Taking precipitation processes at the edge of subtropical high as target objects, three typical sub-regions including the southern foothills of Taihang Mountains, the eastern foothills of Funiu Mountains, and the eastern plains in Huanghuai Region are investigated, according to the topography and precipitation distribution characteristics. On this basis, using multi-source fusion precipitation data of National Meteorological Information Center, the precipitation refinement verification index, FSS (fractional skill score) and STFSS (spatial temporal fractional skill score) that adds the temporal neighborhood are used to evaluate the forecasting performance of the precipitation diurnal variation of CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9. The results show that the precipitation frequency and intensity by CMA-MESO in mountainous areas are smaller than observations, leading to significant underestimation, while results by CMA-SH9 are both stronger. The deviation of precipitation amount forecast of CMA-MESO in plain area mainly comes from the deviation of precipitation frequency. The precipitation intensity forecast by CMA-SH9 is stronger than observations in the southern foothills of Taihang Mountains, and the forecast precipitation frequency in the afternoon is significantly larger. For the early morning to morning period in the eastern foothills of Funiu Mountains, the frequency of precipitation by CMA-MESO is significantly lower than observations, while the diurnal variation of precipitation intensity is better than that of CMA-SH9. For the eastern plains, the overestimation of precipitation in early evening by CMA-SH9 mainly comes from the significantly larger precipitation intensity, while CMA-MESO significantly underestimates the frequency of precipitation in early evening and early morning. Based on the analysis of FSS, CMA-MESO is superior to CMA-SH9 in hourly precipitation forecast of more than 10 mm during afternoon to mid-night in the eastern foothills of Funiu Mountains and 0200 BT to 0400 BT in the night in the eastern plains, but the conclusion is opposite in the southern foothills of Taihang Mountains in the nighttime. STFSS can better evaluate the temporal and spatial uncertainty of hourly precipitation forecasts. Precipitation forecasts of CMA-SH9 in southern foothills of Taihang Mountains from the afternoon to the first half of the night significantly lag behind observations, but its spatial-deviation-scale and performance is better than CMA-MESO. The precipitation forecast of CMA-MESO from 0200 BT to 0800 BT in the eastern foothills of Funiu Mountains is significantly ahead of observations, and the advance time is more obvious in the eastern plains in the morning.
- subtropical high;
- complex terrain;
- diurnal variation of precipitation;
- spatial-temporal neighborhood

FullText(HTML)

References(37)

Figures and Tables

Fig. 1 Terrain of the target area and total precipitation of the selected 27 precipitation days

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

Fig. 2 Distribution of 500 hPa geopotential height (the contour, unit:dagpm), 700 hPa wind field (the barb) and 24 h precipitation (the shaded) at 2000 BT of typical cases

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

Fig. 3 Observation and forecast of average precipitation, percentage of effective precipitation and average precipitation intensity of the selected precipitation days

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 4 不同区域实况和预报的平均降水量、有效降水时次占比、降水强度日变化特征

短竖线代表预报与观测差值在0.1显著性水平上显著大于(小于)0

Fig. 4 Diurnal variation characteristics of average precipitation, percentage of effective precipitation and average precipitation intensity in different areas of the selected precipitation days

short vertical lines denote the difference between forecast and observation significantly greater(less) than zero at 0.1 level

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 5 不同区域、不同空间邻域下CMA-MESO，CMA-SH9预报10 mm以上小时降水的FSS评分日变化及两者差值

★代表模式评分差值在0.1显著性水平上显著大于(小于)0

Fig. 5 Diurnal variation of FSS for hourly precipitation above 10 mm forecast and the difference between CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 of different spatial neighborhoods in different areas

★ denotes the difference significantly greater(less) than zero at 0.1 level

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 6 CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9两模式在不同时间、空间邻域下对太行山南麓大于10 mm阈值小时降水预报的STFSS评分及两者差值

▲代表任一时间领域的STFSS评分与0 h评分的差值在0.1显著性水平上显著大于(小于)0，★代表模式评分差值在0.1显著性水平上显著大于(小于)0

Fig. 6 STFSS for hourly precipitation forecasts greater than 10 mm threshold and the difference between CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 at southern foothills of Taihang Mountains under different time and space neighbors

▲ denotes the difference between STFSS score of the neighborhood at any time and 0 h score significantly greater(less) than zero at 0.1 level, ★ denotes the difference between STFSS of CMA-MESO and CMA-SH9 significantly greater(less) than zero at 0.1 level

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

Fig. 7 The same as in Fig. 6, but for the eastern foothills of Funiu Mountains

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

Fig. 8 The same as in Fig. 6, but for the eastern plains

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

Table 1 Beginning and ending time of subtropical high edge precipitation samples in Huanghuai Region

编号	起始时间	结束时间
1	2020-06-15T20:00	2020-06-16T20:00
2	2020-06-16T20:00	2020-06-17T20:00
3	2020-08-02T20:00	2020-08-03T20:00
4	2020-08-03T20:00	2020-08-04T20:00
5	2020-08-04T20:00	2020-08-05T20:00
6	2020-08-05T20:00	2020-08-06T20:00
7	2020-08-06T20:00	2020-08-07T20:00
8	2020-08-11T20:00	2020-08-12T20:00
9	2020-08-14T20:00	2020-08-15T20:00
10	2020-08-17T20:00	2020-08-18T20:00
11	2020-08-18T20:00	2020-08-19T20:00
12	2020-08-19T20:00	2020-08-20T20:00
13	2020-08-21T20:00	2021-08-22T20:00
14	2021-08-27T20:00	2021-08-28T20:00
15	2021-08-29T20:00	2021-08-30T20:00
16	2021-08-30T20:00	2021-08-31T20:00
17	2021-08-31T20:00	2021-09-01T20:00
18	2021-09-03T20:00	2021-09-04T20:00
19	2021-09-05T20:00	2021-09-06T20:00
20	2021-09-16T20:00	2021-09-17T20:00
21	2021-09-17T20:00	2021-09-18T20:00
22	2021-09-23T20:00	2021-09-24T20:00
23	2021-09-24T20:00	2021-09-25T20:00
24	2021-09-25T20:00	2021-09-26T20:00
25	2021-10-03T20:00	2021-10-04T20:00
26	2021-10-04T20:00	2021-10-05T20:00
27	2021-10-05T20:00	2021-10-06T20:00

DownLoad: Download CSV

References

[1]	Tao S Y, Zhao S X, Zhou X P, et al. The research progress of the synoptic meteorology and synoptic forecast. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 2003, 27(4): 451-467. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK200304002.htm
[2]	Tao S Y, Wei J. The westward, northward advance of the subtropical high over the West Pacific in summer. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2006, 17(5): 513-525. http://qikan.camscma.cn/article/id/20060591
[3]	Sun X C, Guo J J, Wang Y H, et al. Analysis of the common effect of vortex and subtropical high on rainstorm fall area. Meteor Mon, 2015, 41(4): 401-408. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201504002.htm
[4]	Hou S M, Guo J J, Zhang L, et al. Analysis of dynamic and thermal field structure characteristics on rainstorm area in interaction process between westerly trough and subtropical high. Meteor Mon, 2017, 43(2): 151-165. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201702003.htm
[5]	Qiu G Q, Zhao G X, Dong C Q, et al. Frontogenesis and moisture characteristic analysis on a sudden rainstorm at the edge of subtropical high. Plateau Meteor, 2018, 37(4): 946-957. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX201804007.htm
[6]	Ren L, Zhao N, Zhao M L, et al. Diagnosis of dynamic and thermal mechanisms of two rainstorm processes by the warm front frontogenesis north of the subtropical high. Plateau Meteor, 2021, 40(1): 61-73. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX202101006.htm
[7]	Chen J Q, Shi X H. Possible effects of the difference in atmospheric heating between the Tibetan Plateau and the Bay of Bengal on spatiotemporal evolution of rainstorms. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(2): 244-256. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220210
[8]	Lan M C, Zhou L, Jiang S, et al. Comparative analysis on occurrence and maintenance mechanism of two short-term rainstorms in Hunan Province under control of subtropical high. Meteor Sci Technol, 2022, 50(4): 512-525. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKJ202204007.htm
[9]	Zheng J, Xu A H, Sun S Q, et al. Forecast error analysis of extremely heavy rain under high-level northwest flow. Meteor Mon, 2018, 44(1): 93-106. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201801008.htm
[10]	Zhao W, Hao C, Cao J, et al. Diurnal variation characteristics of summer precipitation and precipitation events with different durations in Beijing in the past 40 years. Chinese J Atmos Sci, 2022, 46(5): 1167-1176. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-DQXK202205006.htm
[11]	Cheng P, Luo H, Chang Y, et al. Aircraft measurement of microphysical characteristics of a topographic cloud precipitation in Qilian Mountains. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(6): 691-705. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210605
[12]	Gao Y, Cai M, Cao Z Q, et al. Environmental conditions and cloud macro and micro features of "21·7" extreme heavy rainfall in Henan Province. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(6): 682-695. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220604
[13]	Zhang H F, Pan L J, Chen H M, et al. Diurnal variations and causes of warm season precipitation in Qinling and surrounding areas. Plateau Meteor, 2020, 39(5): 935-946. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-GYQX202005004.htm
[14]	Chen Y, Chen T, Wang L Y, et al. A review of the warm-sector rainstorms in China. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2019, 38(5): 483-493. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HBQX201905011.htm
[15]	Li X, Zhang L. Formation mechanism and microphysics characteristics of heavy rainfall caused by northward-moving typhoons. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(1): 29-42. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220103
[16]	Jin R H, Dai K, Zhao R X, et al. Progress and challenge of seamless fine gridded weather forecasting technology in China. Meteor Mon, 2019, 45(4): 445-457. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201904001.htm
[17]	Chen Y, Cao Y, Sun J, et al. Progress of fine gridded quantitative precipitation forecast technology of National Meteorological Centre. Meteor Mon, 2021, 47(6): 655-670. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX202106002.htm
[18]	Xie S, Sun X G, Zhang S P, et al. Precipitation forecast correction in South China based on SVD and machine learning. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(3): 293-304. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220304
[19]	Yu R C, Li J, Chen H M, et al. Progress in studies of the precipitation diurnal variation over contiguous China. Acta Meteor Sinica, 2014, 72(5): 948-968. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXB201405012.htm
[20]	Sun J, Cao Z, Li H, et al. Application of artificial intelligence technology to numerical weather prediction. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2021, 32(1): 1-11. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20210101
[21]	Zhong Q, Sun Z, Chen H M, et al. Multi model forecast biases of the diurnal variations of intense rainfall in the Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei Region. Science China (Series D), 2022, 65(8): 1490-1509. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-JDXK202209010.htm
[22]	Rodwell M J, Richardson D S, Hewson T D, et al. A new equitable score suitable for verifying precipitation in numerical weather prediction. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc, 2010, 136(650): 1344-1363.
[23]	Ebert E E. Neighborhood verification: A strategy for rewarding close forecasts. Wea Forecasting, 2009, 24(6): 1498-1510.
[24]	Pan L J, Zhang H F, Chen X T, et al. Neighborhood-based precipitation forecasting capability analysis of high-resolution models. J Trop Meteor, 2015, 31(5): 632-642. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-RDQX201505006.htm
[25]	Ebert E E, Gallus W A. Toward better understanding of the contiguous rain area(CRA) method for spatial forecast verification. Wea Forecasting, 2009, 24(5): 1401-1415.
[26]	Chen Y, Ebert E E, Davidson N E, et al. Application of contiguous rain area(CRA) methods to tropical cyclone rainfall forecast verification. Earth and Space Science, 2018, 5(11): 736-752.
[27]	Davis C A, Brown B G, Bullock R, et al. The method for object-based diagnostic evaluation(MODE) applied to numerical forecasts from the 2005 NSSL/SPC spring program. Wea Forecasting, 2009, 24(5): 1252-1267.
[28]	Chang Y, Wen J W, Yang X F, et al. Verification of rainstorm based on numerical model about CMA-TYM and SCMOC in Nenjiang Basin. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(2): 154-165. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230203
[29]	Duc L, Saito K, Seko H. Spatial-temporal fractions verification for high-resolution ensemble forecasts. Tellus A, 2013, 65: 18171-18193.
[30]	Li Z L, Zhao B, Li G P. An extended spatial verification technique for ensemble precipitation forecasts. Trans Atmos Sci, 2021, 44(2): 189-198. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-NJQX202102003.htm
[31]	Chen H M, Li P X, Zhao Y. A review and outlook of verification and evaluation of precipitation forecast at convection-permitting resolution. Adv Meteor Sci Tech, 2021, 11(3): 155-164. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKZ202103023.htm
[32]	Zhang S T, Zhong J Q, Lu B, et al. Performance evaluation of CMA-BJ V2.0 System for precipitation forecast in North China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(2): 129-141. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230201
[33]	Huang L P, Deng L T, Wang R C, et al. Key technologies of CMA-MESO and application to operational forecast. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2022, 33(6): 641-654. doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.20220601
[34]	Xu T, Yang Y H, Li J, et al. An objective verification of forecasting ability of SMS-WARMS V2.0 model precipitation in Southwest China. Meteor Mon, 2019, 45(8): 1065-1074. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX201908003.htm
[35]	Pan Y, Gu J X, Xu B, et al. Advances in multi-source precipitation merging research. Adv Meteor Sci Tech, 2018, 8(1): 143-152. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXKZ201801035.htm
[36]	Zhao B, Zhang B. Application of neighborhood spatial verification method on precipitation evaluation. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2018, 37(1): 1-7. https://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-HBQX201801001.htm
[37]	Mittermaier M, Roberts N. Intercomparison of spatial forecast verification methods: Identifying skillful spatial scales using the fractions skill score. Wea Forecasting, 2010, 25(1): 343-354.