Covariation Relationship Between Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Change over the Northwest Pacific

Zhou Mingzhu; Xu Jing

doi:10.11898/1001-7313.20230407

Vol.34, NO.4, 2023

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Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2023 > 34(4): 463-474

Zhou Mingzhu, Xu Jing. Covariation relationship between tropical cyclone intensity and size change over the Northwest Pacific. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(4): 463-474. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230407.

Citation:

Zhou Mingzhu, Xu Jing. Covariation relationship between tropical cyclone intensity and size change over the Northwest Pacific. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(4): 463-474. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230407.

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Covariation Relationship Between Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Change over the Northwest Pacific

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230407

Zhou Mingzhu¹,
Xu Jing^{1, 2
,
,}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
2.
Qingdao Joint Institute of Marine Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Qingdao 266034

Received Date: 2023-01-10
Rev Recd Date: 2023-05-17
Publish Date: 2023-07-31

Abstract

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) has brought huge losses to coastal areas, whose intensity and size are both important indicators of destruction. The Northwest Pacific is the area with the most TCs generated. Due to the lack of effective observation methods and monitoring information, the TC operational centers of coastal countries or regions have not yet established complete TC outer-core size prediction and testing service. Thus, to select factors that significantly impact TC size changes and improve TC size forecast, statistical analysis is carried out on the climatological characteristics and the lifetime covariation characteristics of intensity and outer-core size (selected as the radius of damaging-force winds, R₂₆) over the Northwest Pacific from July to November during 2004-2020, using the tropical cyclone best track data from JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) and SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme) reanalysis data. The results show that TC intensity and size peak in October, mainly showing a higher proportion of strong and large-sized TCs with longer lifetime at sea than in other months. Generally, the TC size expands with the increase in intensity and shrinks as the TC weakens. TCs reach the lifetime maximum size (LMS) later than the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), with a mean lag time of 40 hours. Compared to the TC rapid intensification and LMI, the mean meridional positions of TC rapid expansion and LMS are closer to the coastal continent. Initial vortex size of TC affects the size development, especially LMS. Specifically, 58% of small initial vortices maintain the size in the small to medium category, while 71% of vortices with large initial size develop to large vortices in later periods, with 59% intensify to strong TCs (no less than 59 m·s^-1) at LMI stage. Compared to small initial vortices, vortices with larger initial sizes tend to attain the greater integrated kinetic energy. The size of the latter stage has a high correlation (no less than 0.45) with the initial R₂₆ for 66 h, indicating that the initial size of TCs can be a key predictor. The peak of size change rate (ΔR₂₆) is located at moderate intensity (25~50 m·s^-1) and the peak intensity change rate (ΔV_max) is located at medium and small size (50-100 km). The outer-core size is more likely to expand outward and even leads to rapid expansion under the conditions of stronger upper air divergence, higher relative humidity, larger ocean heat content and moderate vertical shear.
- tropical cyclone;
- intensification rate;
- rapid expansion;
- integrated kinetic energy;
- size growth rate

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References(37)

Figures and Tables

图 1 热带气旋尺度(a)及强度(b)月际平均分布

(误差线表示达到0.05显著性水平区间)

Fig. 1 Distribution of monthly tropical cyclone size(a) and intensity(b)

(error bars denote 0.05 significant level range)

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Fig. 2 Monthly frequencies and percentages of tropical cyclone size(a) and intensity(b)

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图 3 热带气旋尺度和强度经向(a)及纬向(b)分布

(误差线表示达到0.05显著性水平区间)

Fig. 3 Meridional(a) and zonal(b) distribution of tropical cyclone size and intensity

(error bars denote 0.05 significant level range)

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图 4 热带气旋尺度与强度变化及生命史最大值与快速增长区域分布

(a)ΔR₂₆ (填色，红色表示正值，蓝色表示负值) 与最大尺度位置(黑色三角) 及最大尺度平均位置(黄色空心圆)，(b)ΔV_max (填色，红色表示正值，蓝色表示负值) 与最大强度位置(黑色三角) 及最大强度平均位置(黄色空心圆)，(c)尺度增大频数(填色) 与快速膨胀位置(黑色圆点) 及快速膨胀平均位置(黄色空心圆)，(d)强度增强频数(填色) 与快速增强位置(黑色圆点) 及快速增强平均位置(黄色空心圆)

Fig. 4 Distributions of tropical cyclone size and intensity change rate, lifetime maximum and rapid growth

(a)ΔR₂₆ (the shaded, the red denotes positive, the blue denotes negative) and locations of lifetime maximum size (triangles), the average position of lifetime maximum size (the yellow circle), (b)ΔV_max (the shaded, the red denotes positive, the blue denotes negative) and locations of lifetime maximum intensity (triangles), the average position of lifetime maximum intensity (the yellow circle), (c)frequency of expansion cases (the shaded) and the locations of rapid expansion cases (dots) with the average position of rapid expansion cases (the yellow circle), (d)frequency of intensification cases (the shaded), the locations of rapid intensification cases (dots) with the average position of intensification cases (the yellow circle)

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Fig. 5 Box plots of the maintenance rate of different size vortexes

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Fig. 6 Cumulative relative frequencies of different size vortexes

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Fig. 7 Scatter plots of ΔV_max against R₂₆(a), the wind skirt parameter(b), and ΔR₂₆ against V_max(c), ΔV_max(d)

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图 8 累计动能随强度变化

(曲线表示累计动能拟合中值)

Fig. 8 Scatter plot of integrated kinetic energy against V_max

(color curves denote fitting median)

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Fig. 9 Comparison of R₂₆ along recurving and straight-moving tracks for large and small initial vortexes

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Table 1 Correlation coefficients of environmental factors to ΔR₂₆ within 72 hours

环境因子	与热带气旋中心距离/km	滞后时间/h
环境因子	与热带气旋中心距离/km	12	24	36	48	60	72
海表温度	200~800	0.23^*	0.17^*	0.10^*	0.05	0.01	-0.02
海洋热含量	200~800	0.32^*	0.29^*	0.23^*	0.17^*	0.09^*	0.01
850 hPa相对涡度	0~1000	0.00	-0.04	-0.06^*	-0.05	-0.05	-0.06
200 hPa散度	0~1000	0.15^*	0.13^*	0.11^*	0.08^*	0.03	0.01
850 hPa至200 hPa环境垂直风切变	200~800	-0.10^*	-0.03	0.01	0.03	0.06	0.05
700 hPa至500 hPa相对湿度	200~800	0.22^*	0.18^*	0.13^*	0.09^*	0.06^*	0.02
200 hPa相对角动量的涡度能量辐合	100~600	-0.12^*	-0.05^*	0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.01
850 hPa至700 hPa平均温度平流	0~500	-0.19^*	-0.20^*	-0.18^*	-0.13^*	-0.06^*	-0.01
注：*表示达到0.05显著性水平。

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