Vol.34, NO.5, 2023
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Applied Meteorological Science  > 2023  >  34(5): 586-597
Wang Haiping. Impacts of upper tropospheric cold low on the track of Typhoon In-fa in 2021. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(5): 586-597. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230507.
Citation: Wang Haiping. Impacts of upper tropospheric cold low on the track of Typhoon In-fa in 2021. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2023, 34(5): 586-597. DOI:  10.11898/1001-7313.20230507.
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Impacts of Upper Tropospheric Cold Low on the Track of Typhoon In-fa in 2021

DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230507

  • National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081

  • Received Date: 2023-05-01
  • Rev Recd Date: 2023-08-22
  • Publish Date: 2023-09-30
    Abstract
  • Typhoon In-fa lands on the coast of Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province on 25 July 2021, bringing severe wind and rain to the coastal areas for a long time. Before landing, it maintains in the sea, east of Ryukyu Islands and then suddenly turns northward. The official subjective and numerical model forecasts both produce serious errors on the landing time and location, which has a certain impact on the decision of disaster prevention.Using the best track data of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the water vapor channel data of FY-4A satellite cloud image, the characteristics of Typhoon In-fa, especially the causes of its stagnation and northerly bend are investigated. Deterministic model forecast results from the regional mesoscale typhoon numerical forecast system (CMA-TYM), the fine-grid numerical forecast product of European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Center for Environmental Prediction Center (NCEP), and ECMWF ensemble forecast data are also analyzed. The fifth generation global climate reanalysis data set ERA5 is used for the analysis of the real situation field and physical quantity field. The center of the upper-tropospheric cold low (UTCL) is determined by referring to the water vapor channel of the satellite cloud image and the horizontal flow field is obtained according to the wind field data of ERA5. The center of the cyclonic circulation over 200 hPa is set as the center of UTCL.Through FY-4A water vapor cloud image, it is found that in the stagnation stage of Typhoon In-fa, there is a UTCL system on the north side. By analyzing the vertical distribution of circulation situation field, steering flow, and relative vorticity, it is found that the position of the subtropical high system is to the east and north, and typhoon guiding effect on the typhoon is weak. Therefore, the main weather systems that affect the change of its track are the UTCL and westerly trough system in the upper troposphere. There are also differences in the interaction between UTCL and typhoon at different intensities and distances. By analyzing the deterministic and ensemble prediction of ECMWF and CMA-TYM models, it is found that the prediction errors and deviations of UTCL are important reasons for the track predictions. There are still large errors and uncertainties of ensemble prediction in the prediction of UTCL, especially for long lead time forecast products. The UTCL slows down Typhoon In-fa and makes it bend to the left, which indirectly leads to the northerly bend of Typhoon In-fa.In the future, it is necessary to further study the influence of UTCL on typhoon track and intensity, pay more attention to the prediction performance of UTCL, and carry out the prediction and inspection of UTCL in the model, so as to support the interpretation and improvement of the model product.
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    References(36)

  • Fig. 1  The best track and numerical model 120 h track forecast of Typhoon In-Fa from 2000 BT 19 Jul to 2000 BT 24 Jul in 2021

    (a)initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul,(b)initiated at 2000 BT 20 Jul, (c)speed of the best track moving and numerical model forecast initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul, (d)12-120 h track errors of numerical model initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul and 2000 BT 20 Jul

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    Fig. 2  FY-4A water vapor satellite imagery of Typhoon In-Fa at 0800 BT on 14 Jul, 17 Jul, 19 Jul and 22 Jul in 2021

    (T denotes the center of Typhoon In-Fa, C denotes the center of upper-tropospheric cold low)

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    Fig. 3  The best track of Typhoon In-fa (the solid line) and the track of upper-tropospheric cold low (the dashed line) (a) and distance between their centers(b)

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    Fig. 4  Height of 200 hPa (the blue contour) and 500 hPa (the red contour) at 0800 BT 19 Jul and 22 Jul, and 2000 BT 23 Jul of in 2021 (unit:gpm)

    DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

    Fig. 5  Mean steering flow (the blue line) from 1000 hPa to 100 hPa (the red line denotes the track of typhoon) (a) and vertical steering flow distribution(b) of Typhoon In-Fa based on ECMWF deterministic model from 17 Jul to 29 Jul in 2021

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    Fig. 6  Vertical profile of relative vorticity passing the line between the typhoon center and the upper-tropospheric cold low center at 0800 BT on 19 Jul and 22 Jul in 2021 (unit:10-4 s-1)

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    Fig. 7  Track of ECMWF ensemble forecast initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul(a) and 2000 BT 20 Jul(b) in 2021

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    Fig. 8  Composited flow field (the streamline) and wind velocity (the shaded) at 200 hPa for westbound group members(a) and northwest group members(b) in ECMWF 72 h forecast

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    Fig. 9  ECMWF deterministic forecasts track (the red line) at 2000 BT 19 Jul(a) and 2000 BT 20 Jul(b) in 2021 and steering flows of tropospheric mid-upper mean (the yellow line), mid-lower mean (the blue line), and mid-level mean (the black line)

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    Fig. 10  Composited 500 hPa height of forecast (the red contour) and analysis field (the blue contour) for westbound group members(a) and northwest group members(b) in ECMWF 72 h forecast initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul 2021 (unit:gpm) (the black curve denotes the best track, the brown curve denotes the forecast track)

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    Fig. 11  200 hPa wind stream field (the streamline) on 22 Jul 2021 and wind speed diagram (the shaded) (a)CMA-TYM forecast initiated at 2000 BT 19 Jul, (b)ECMWF forecast initiated at 2000BT 19 Jul, (c)CMA-TYM forecast initiated at 2000 BT 20 Jul, (d)ECMWF forecast initiated at 2000 BT 20 Jul, (e)analysis fields of ERA5 at 2000 BT 22 Jul

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    • Received : 2023-05-01
    • Accepted : 2023-08-22
    • Published : 2023-09-30
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