海温指数 | 范围 | 相关系数 | 符号一致率/% |
ISST1 | 黑潮延伸区(28°~36°N,170°E~172°W) | 0.51Δ | 70 |
ISST2 | 新西兰东北侧(32°~24°S,176°E~170°W) | 0.49Δ | 80 |
ISST3 | Niño区(6°~14°N,130°~154°W) | -0.56Δ | 83 |
ISST4 | 墨西哥湾区(34°~40°N,64°~72°W) | 0.66Δ | 77 |
注:Δ表示相关系数达到0.05显著性水平。 |
Citation: | Shao Qiduo, Tu Gang, Bueh Cholaw, et al. A statistical prediction for East Asian winter monsoon based on sea-ice-air system. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2024, 35(2): 168-181. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20240204. |
Table 1 Correlation coefficients and consistency of the anomaly sign between ISA and key SST indices during 1982-2011
海温指数 | 范围 | 相关系数 | 符号一致率/% |
ISST1 | 黑潮延伸区(28°~36°N,170°E~172°W) | 0.51Δ | 70 |
ISST2 | 新西兰东北侧(32°~24°S,176°E~170°W) | 0.49Δ | 80 |
ISST3 | Niño区(6°~14°N,130°~154°W) | -0.56Δ | 83 |
ISST4 | 墨西哥湾区(34°~40°N,64°~72°W) | 0.66Δ | 77 |
注:Δ表示相关系数达到0.05显著性水平。 |
Table 2 Correlation and consistency of the anomaly sign between ISA and prediction factors
预测因子 | 与ISA的相关系数(1982—2011年) | 符号一致率(1982—2011年)/% | 符号一致率(2012—2022年)/% |
ISST | 0.58ΔΔ | 76.7 | 63.6 |
ISST4 | 0.66ΔΔ | 73.3 | 63.6 |
IZ150 | 0.51Δ | 76.7 | 72.7 |
IBR | -0.63ΔΔ | 73.3 | 72.7 |
注:Δ和ΔΔ分别表示相关系数达到0.05和0.01显著性水平。 |
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