An Analog Method of Phase Space for Long-range Forecast

By way of the calculation of fractal dimension D, a phase space with d-dimensions (d=INT (l+D)) is established using a time series. Then, the analog theory of statistical forecast is applied to the phase points of phase space, and it is hypothesized that the mode of state at the nearest phase points after evolution time T is equal to each other. A lot of trial studies based on the hypothesis show that the forecast accuracy of anomaly sign can reach 60%—70%, and the relative error is generally less than 8%