Several Problems of Severe Convective Storm Numerical Simulation and Its Future Prediction

By numerical simulating three cases of hailstorms with a three-dimensional elastic meso-(β‐γ) model with nested-grid, a series of basic problems of future modeling prediction of severe convective storms are investigated. It is shown that some storms may be qualitatively predicted with a simplified two-dimensional model initialized with ordinary sounding, while other storms symbolized with organized three-dimensional circulation, e. g. supercells, can only be properly done with full three-dimensional model and full environment wind components. In order to predict the life-cycle, evolution and precipitation development of various convective storms, a three-dimensional modeling computation with a comprehensive microphysical parameterization should be done and a model initial field which really represents the storm environment condition is required as well. In addition, some feedback effect of a hailstorm is also described.