Experiments of Real Time Numerical Weather Prediction of Typhoon Tracks

An experimental numerical weather prediction system of typhoon tracks has been developed by National Meteorological Center. And a modified version of the typhoon bogus developed at Japan Meteorological Agency has been installed in this experimental system. The bogus vortex, whose construction is based on the observed parameter values and empirical formula, is superposed on the original analysis as initial conditions for prediction of typhoon tracks. The initial fields can be improved by merging with the bogus vortex which resembles to the corresponding real storm in both location and structure. By using this experimental system and the bogus method, realtime forecasts are made for typhoon T9205 (ELI) and T9210 (JANIS), and results indicate considerable skill in forecasting typhoon motion.