A Preliminary Analysis of Short-Range Forecasting Level for Precipitation By Central Meteorological Office of China

The short-range (0~24, 24~48 h) forecasting level for precipitation during 1988~1993 is analysed by Central Meteorological Office. The results show that the forecast accuracy and forecast skill of Yes/No for rain (≥0.1 mm), light rain (0.1~9.9 mm) and moderate rain (10.0~24.9 mm) were increased last six years, varying degrees. Although forecast skill scores of Yes/No for heavy rain (25.0~49.9 mm), torrential rain (50.0~99.9 mm) and heavy torrential rain (≥100.0 mm) were positive (＞0), the improvement on forecast skill was not remarkable.