The Statistical-dynamic Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Track on the East China Sea

The scheme of the statistical-dynamic prediction for the tropical cyclone track on the East China Sea and its application are described. Based on its original scheme, the forecasting area is adjusted and the historical samples are afresh selected; the period of validity is prolonged; the correlation factors of stochastic parameters are improved and the weather empirical factors are objective; and the products of numerical prediction are introduced from ECMWF. The independent sample test and the real-time prediction show that the forecasting tracks of tropical cyclones are very similar to the real tracks, and every error of the forecasting products of the scheme is obviously less than that of other schemes.