Potential Effects of Climatic Variation on Geographical Distribution of Wheat in China

The potential CO2-induced impacts on the geographical shifts of wheat growth zones in China were analyzed based on GCM outputs. It is shown that the wheat growth regions may move northward and westward under the condition of a doubled CO2 climate. The wheat cultivation features and variety types may also assume significant changes. Climatic warming would have a positive influence in Northeast China, but high temperature stress may be produced in some regions of central and southern China. Higher mean air temperatures during wheat growth, particularly during the reproductive stages, may increase the need for earlier-maturing and more heat-tolerant cultivars.