Analysis and Forecast of Precipitation Distribution Trend Prior to Flood Season in Guangdong Province

Classification of precipitation distribution trends prior to flood-season in Guangdong Province was carried out by using fuzzy cluster analysis technique. Corresponging analysis was also made for the sampled representative stations. The distribution trends of flood-season precipitation were classified by taking the first two common factors to analyse mean height fields at 500 hPa and investigate their differences. Meanwhile, evolution characteristics of 500hPa circulation situation in the previous winter seasons (Jan. ~ Feb.) and SST distribution (Dec. ~ Feb.) were studied. Finally, Precipitation distribution trend in floodseason was predicted by using forecast values of the first two loading variables