Forecast Experiments for Low Frequency Oscillation of Tropical Circulation in West Pacific Using Principal Oscillation Pattern Analysis

The principal oscillation pattern (POP) model are set up based on the daily data of zonal wind at 200 hPa in tropical West Pacific in 1994, and the independent forecast experiments of POP models are performed for the propagation of the low frequency on the 30~50 days time scale. The results show that the skill score of correlation prediction up to 15 days ahead of time could reach more than 0.50 in the 109 forecasts during the northern summer. It is useful analysis tool to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of low frequency oscillation. Furthermore, the method of selecting the parameters is also discussed