The regional consensus forcast with dynamic weighting for summer precipitation over China is described. Dynamic and normalized weighting coefficients are to forecasting model for each region of China in accordance with the predictive skill of several individual models for past records. Here, dynamic weighting means that the closer the record is from forecasting origin time, the greater the weighting coefficient is. And the forecast of the precipitation over China is composed of the consensus forecast of 10 regions. The experiments for the independent sample of 1990—1998 show that the predictive skill of the consensus forecast is better and steadier than that of individual forecasting.
DownLoad: