THE EXPERIMENT OF EXTRASEASONAL PREDICTION IN CHINA BY OSU/NCC GCM FOR FLOOD SEASON

Gao Xuejie; Zhao Zongci

Vol.11, NO.2, 2000

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2000 > 11(2): 180-188

Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci. The experiment of extraseasonal prediction in China by OSU/NCC GCM for flood season. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2000, 11(2): 180-188.

Citation:

Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci. The experiment of extraseasonal prediction in China by OSU/NCC GCM for flood season. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2000, 11(2): 180-188.

Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci. The experiment of extraseasonal prediction in China by OSU/NCC GCM for flood season. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2000, 11(2): 180-188.

Citation:

Gao Xuejie, Zhao Zongci. The experiment of extraseasonal prediction in China by OSU/NCC GCM for flood season. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2000, 11(2): 180-188.

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THE EXPERIMENT OF EXTRASEASONAL PREDICTION IN CHINA BY OSU/NCC GCM FOR FLOOD SEASON

National Climate Center, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 1998-12-28
Rev Recd Date: 1999-07-27
Publish Date: 2000-05-31

Abstract

Abstract

Using ensemble method, tests for seasonal and annual predictions of rainfall in China during the period of 1982 to 1995 are made by the atmospheric GCM/mixed-layer ocean and ice model (denoted as OSU/NCC). Contrasts between forecasts and observations show that the model has certain ability in the prediction of precipitation for rainy season over China. It is also indicated that the prediction is especially acceptable in certain areas.
- Coupling model;
- Ensemble prediction;
- Prediction for flood season;
- Seasonal and annual prediction

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References(6)

Figures and Tables

图 1 我国各站14年汛期季度降水预测值与实况的相关系数 (×100)

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图 2 1995年汛期降水的实况 (a)和模式季度预测值 (b) 的分布图 (单位: mm, 下同)

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图 3 模式年度预测中国冬季降水与实况的相关系数 (×100)

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图 4 模式年度预测中国春季降水与实况的相关系数 (×100)

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图 5 模式年度预测的次年汛期各站降水与实况的相关系数 (×100)

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图 6 1987年汛期降水实况 (a) 和模式年度预测值 (b)

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图 7 模式年度预测的次年夏季各站温度与实况的相关系数 (×100)

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表 1 OSU/NCC模式对1982～1995年中国汛期季度降水预测结果的评估参数值

表 2 模式年度预报对次年汛期降水预测结果的评估参数值

References

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[2]	王坚, 史久恩, 孙力强, 等.用一般环流模式对1991年3~8月环流和天气预测的一个数值试验.北京气象学院学报, 1992, (1): 8~13.
[3]	赵宗慈.中国短期气候预测的模式研究.北京:气象出版社, 1996.72~79.
[4]	高学杰, 赵宗慈.利用全球环流模式进行北半球环流场和中国气候的模拟及对1996年汛期进行预测的试验及检验.应用气象学报, 1997, 7 (增刊): 145~152.
[5]	高学杰, 赵宗慈.利用全球环流模式进行我国汛期跨季度短期气候预测的试验.应用气象学报, 1999, 10 (4): 462~469. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/create_pdf.aspx?file_no=19990495&year_id=1999&quarter_id=4&falg=1
[6]	陈桂英, 赵振国.短期气候预测评估方法和业务初估.应用气象学报, 1998, 9 (2): 178~185. http://qikan.camscma.cn/jams/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=19980225&flag=1