RESEARCH ON THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROWTH AND YIELD OF WHEAT IN CHINA

Zhang Yu; Wang Shili; Wang Futang

Vol.11, NO.3, 2000

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2000 > 11(3): 264-270

Zhang Yu, Wang Shili, Wang Futang. Research on the possible effects of climate change on growth and yield of wheat in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2000, 11(3): 264-270.

Citation:

Zhang Yu, Wang Shili, Wang Futang. Research on the possible effects of climate change on growth and yield of wheat in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2000, 11(3): 264-270.

Zhang Yu, Wang Shili, Wang Futang. Research on the possible effects of climate change on growth and yield of wheat in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2000, 11(3): 264-270.

Citation:

Zhang Yu, Wang Shili, Wang Futang. Research on the possible effects of climate change on growth and yield of wheat in China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2000, 11(3): 264-270.

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RESEARCH ON THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROWTH AND YIELD OF WHEAT IN CHINA

1.
Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 1999-04-26
Rev Recd Date: 1999-05-14
Publish Date: 2000-08-31

Abstract

Abstract

The possible effects of climate change on winter wheat and spring wheat of China are analyzed by using the stochastic weather generator and combining the CERES-wheat model with the climate change scenarios predicted by the climate model with the amount of CO₂ doubled. The results indicate that owing to climate change, the growing season of wheat is shortened, with the growing seasons of winter wheat and spring wheat shortened by 7.3 days and 10.5 days, respectively. Both the absolute and relative values of the shortened quantity for spring wheat are greater than those for winter wheat. Furthermore, the yield decreased due to the climate change. Winter wheat yield decreased by 7%-8% and decreased more greatly in the rainfed condition than in the optimal water condition. Spring wheat yield decreased more greatly than winter wheat, with a decrease of 17.7% in the optimal water condition and 31.4% in the rainfed condition.
- Climate change;
- Development and yield of wheat;
- Crop simulation model;
- Stochastic weather generator;
- Climate model

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References(13)

Figures and Tables

图 1 研究的基本方法和过程

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图 2 水分适宜时冬小麦与春小麦生长期的变化

(图例为缩短天数)

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图 3 水分适宜与雨养条件下小麦产量的变化

(图例为减产百分率)

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表 1 镇江和固城农业气象试验基地的模拟误差 (发育期为天, 其余为%)

References

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