APPLICATION OF THE NUMERICAL PRODUCTS OF T63L16 MODEL FOR PREDICTING MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN SUMMER OVER NORTHEAST CHINA

Zhang Lixiang; Chen Liqiang; Liu Wenming; Li Ji; Zhang Kai

Vol.11, NO.3, 2000

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2000 > 11(3): 348-354

Zhang Lixiang, Chen Liqiang, Liu Wenming, et al. Application of the numerical products of T63l16 model for predicting monthly precipitation in summer over Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2000, 11(3): 348-354.

Citation:

Zhang Lixiang, Chen Liqiang, Liu Wenming, et al. Application of the numerical products of T63l16 model for predicting monthly precipitation in summer over Northeast China. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2000, 11(3): 348-354.

Citation:

PDF( 166 KB)

APPLICATION OF THE NUMERICAL PRODUCTS OF T63L16 MODEL FOR PREDICTING MONTHLY PRECIPITATION IN SUMMER OVER NORTHEAST CHINA

Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory, Shenyang 110015

Received Date: 1999-02-01
Rev Recd Date: 1999-06-24
Publish Date: 2000-08-31

Abstract

Abstract

The Kalman filter method is used to correct the errors of the predicted fields of the T63L16 model of the National Climate Center. The corrected fields are applied to a precipitation forecasting model which combines the qualitative analysis, based on characteristics of weather systems, with the quantitative analog, based on the analog discrete degree indexes, and the precipitation of 51 stations in Northeast China in the summer of 1996-1998 is made. The results show that its prediction performance is good.
- Dynamic application;
- Error correction;
- Precipitation pattern;
- Monthly precipitation

FullText(HTML)

References(4)

Figures and Tables

图 1 卡尔曼滤波误差订正前后平均均方根误差随纬度的分布

(圆点表示订正前, 菱形表示订正后)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 2 1996、1997年7、8月逐旬月预报订正前后副热带高压指数与实况的偏差

(说明同图 1)

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

图 3 东北区夏季降水释用方法预报流程图

DownLoad: Full-Size Img PowerPoint

表 1 卡尔曼滤波误差订正前后准确率平均值对比

表 2 各降水型天气系统关键区位置及判据

表 3 1996～1998年预报试验TS评分表

References

[1]	李小泉, 李维京.500 hPa平均环流形势月预报的水平的评估.应用气象学报, 1994, 5 (4): 69~75. http://kns.cnki.net/KCMS/detail/detail.aspx?dbcode=CJFQ&dbname=CJFD9093&filename=YYQX1993S1010&v=MDI1Mjk5S3ZybzlFWklSOGVYMUx1eFlTN0RoMVQzcVRyV00xRnJDVVJMMmZZK2R0Rnl6bFZiN1BQRFRhZHJLeEY=
[2]	张存杰, 董安祥.对T63L16所作延伸预报准确率的评估.气象, 1998, 24 (10): 38~39. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX810.007.htm
[3]	陆如华, 何于班.卡尔曼滤波在天气预报中的应用.气象, 1994, 20 (9): 41~43. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTOTAL-QXXX199304001.htm
[4]	朱其文.东北地区夏季冷暖的环流型客观预报方法.东北短期气候研究.北京:气象出版社, 1998.88~98.