PHYSICAL IMPLICATION OF MEMORY COEFFIENTS IN REGIONAL CLIMATIC SELF-MEMORIAL MODEL AND FORECASTING EXPERIMENTS FOR SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IN SUMMER

The boundary conditions and calculating scheme of the regional climatic Self-Memorial model, were adjusted to operational forecast for seasonal precipitation in summer in China and the numerical experiments were carried out. The periodic variation of the memory coefficients in the model was analyzed and potential relationship between the coefficients and the other physical factors in the climatic system were also discussed. The hindcasts for 1988 to 1997 and operational forecast for 1998 show that the model is useful in forecasting seasonal precipitation.