STUDIES OF ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE PREDICTION WITH A HYBRID OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL

Wu Aiming; Ni Yunqi

Vol.12, NO.2, 2001

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2001 > 12(2): 129-139

Wu Aiming, Ni Yunqi. Studies of ENSO-related climate prediction with a hybrid ocean-atmosphere coupled model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 129-139.

Citation:

Wu Aiming, Ni Yunqi. Studies of ENSO-related climate prediction with a hybrid ocean-atmosphere coupled model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 129-139.

Wu Aiming, Ni Yunqi. Studies of ENSO-related climate prediction with a hybrid ocean-atmosphere coupled model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 129-139.

Citation:

Wu Aiming, Ni Yunqi. Studies of ENSO-related climate prediction with a hybrid ocean-atmosphere coupled model. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 129-139.

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STUDIES OF ENSO-RELATED CLIMATE PREDICTION WITH A HYBRID OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL

Wu Aiming^**,
Ni Yunqi^***

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093

Received Date: 1999-08-13
Rev Recd Date: 1999-11-04
Publish Date: 2001-05-31

Abstract

Abstract

With results of the long-term simulation of a hybrid-coupled model, the interannual variability of the model atmosphere is investigated. With the prediction cases during the period of 1979 to 1994, the predictive capability of the model for ENSO-caused global climate anomalies is discussed. Results indicate that the model can successfully reproduce the global ENSO-related atmospheric interannual variability. Higher predictive skill is mainly distributed over the tropics, where the predictable lead time is about one year. The ENSO-related winter and summer atmospheric circulation anomalies (including air temperature and precipitation) can be basically predicted with the lead time being up 9 to 12 months.
- Hybrid ocean-atmosphere coupled model;
- Interannual variability;
- ENSO;
- Prediction of climate anomalies

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References(14)

Figures and Tables

图 1 冬季500 hPa高度场与同期赤道中东太平洋海温异常SVD第一模态的时间序列

(a, b) 及左奇异相关场分布 (c, d) (图a、c为45年模拟积分资料的分析结果, 图b、d为观测资料的分析结果 (17年), 阴影区表示超过各自95%的显著水平)

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图 2 夏季500 hPa高度场与超前6个月赤道中东太平洋海温异常SVD第一模态的时间序列及左奇异相关场分布

(说明同图 1)

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图 3 (a) 超前9个月的冬季500 hPa高度场距平预报技巧 (阴影区相关系数高于0.5) (b) 由NCEP再分析资料所得的1982/1983年冬季500 hPa高度场距平 (c) 超前9个月的1982/1983年冬季500 hPa高度场距平预报结果

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图 4 1982/1983年冬季地面气温距平 (a) NCEP再分析资料结果 (b) 超前9个月模式预报结果

(阴影区表示正距平区, 即偏暖)

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图 5 (a) 超前1年的夏季500 hPa高度场距平预报技巧 (阴影区相关系数高于0.5) (b) 由NCEP再分析资料所得的1989年夏季500 hPa高度场距平 (c) 超前1年的1989年夏季500 hPa高度场距平预报结果

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图 6 (a) 超前1年的东亚夏季降水预报技巧 (b) 由NCEP再分析资料所得的1989年东亚夏季降水距平 (c) 超前1年的1989年东亚夏季降水距平预报结果

(a中, 浅阴影区相关系数高于0.40, 深阴影区相关系数高于0.50; b、c中, 阴影区为正距平, 单位: mm/d)

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