CLIMATIC RISK ANALYSIS OF THE THREE GORGES PROJECT OPERATION IN DRY SEASON

Zhang Jianmin; Huang Chaoying; Wu Jindong

Vol.12, NO.2, 2001

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Journal of Applied Meteorological Science > 2001 > 12(2): 218-225

Zhang Jianmin, Huang Chaoying, Wu Jindong. Climatic risk analysis of the three gorges project operation in dry season. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 218-225.

Citation:

Zhang Jianmin, Huang Chaoying, Wu Jindong. Climatic risk analysis of the three gorges project operation in dry season. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 218-225.

Zhang Jianmin, Huang Chaoying, Wu Jindong. Climatic risk analysis of the three gorges project operation in dry season. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 218-225.

Citation:

Zhang Jianmin, Huang Chaoying, Wu Jindong. Climatic risk analysis of the three gorges project operation in dry season. J Appl Meteor Sci, 2001, 12(2): 218-225.

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CLIMATIC RISK ANALYSIS OF THE THREE GORGES PROJECT OPERATION IN DRY SEASON

1.
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081
2.
Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081

Received Date: 2000-01-20
Rev Recd Date: 2000-04-19
Publish Date: 2001-05-31

Abstract

Abstract

Monte Carlo experiment is adapted to analyze the risks of the Three Gorges Reservoir operation in dry seasons. Monthly precipitation derived from general circulation models in the Three Gorges area is generated stochastically to produce the distribution under the future climate scenarios. In addition, a statistical runoff-rainfall model as well as a reservoir management model is set up. The risks of the Three Gorges Project operation under the present and the future climate scenarios are thus assessed. The result indicates that the operation of the Three Gorges Project is very sensitive to climate change, and the risks of electrical power supplying by the Three Gorges Reservoir in spring and winter will change obviously.
- Climate change;
- Monte Carlo experiment;
- Reservoir management;
- Risk analysis

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References(8)

Figures and Tables

图 1 三峡工程建成后运行风险的分析流程

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图 2 Г (α, β) 分布拟合的月降水量分布与实测分布比较 (2月)

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图 3 基准气候背景下三峡水库发电风险曲线

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图 4 未来气候情景下三峡水库发电风险曲线

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表 1 枯水期月平均降水量Г (α, β) 分布拟合的Копмого горов检验 (n=48)

表 2 未来气候情景下三峡地区月平均降水量Г (α, β) 分布拟合参数

表 3 混合同余法产生的随机数序列相关系数

表 4 月降水量随机抽样值与实测值统计特征对比

表 5 三峡水库枯水期运行风险指标

References

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